MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Based on Recon Data and media mentions, Alex will be upgraded to Hurricane Status at 11PM tonight. This is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.
6:00 PM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Alex has yet to reach hurricane strength, but still may do so tonight. It is moving more rapidly to the northwest and west northwest tonight, and may reach the coast of Mexico tomorrow night.
Hurricane Warnings still reach into South Texas around Baffin Bay, and effects from the storm will certainly be felt there, mostly rain and some storm surge. The landfall point in Mexico is where most of the impact will be felt. For those asking about the impact on the oil spill, the waves kicked up will likely move the oil around a bit and possibly cause oil to wash up on beaches further east where it hasn't yet, but it is difficult to tell.
Alex Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Alex
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Alex
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alex
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alex (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Alex
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alex
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alex -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
7:00 AM EDT Update 29 June 2010
Tropical Storm Alex is just shy of hurricane strength, but is still trying to wrap in convection along the northwestern side of the storm, keeping it from intensifying all that quickly. The storm is still projected to make landfall south of the Texas/Mexico border.
Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings have not changed since last night. Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.
Those in the Hurricane Warning area should use today to prepare for tomorrow night. There is a possibility warning areas may expand as well.
The system is about to run into a strong ridge that will likely force it hard west, this morning it has picked up a little speed and is moving north northwest, a more westerly turn is expected today.
Landfall is still expected south of the Texas/Mexico border.
Alex Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Alex
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Alex
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alex
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alex (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Alex
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alex
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alex -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Webcams:
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
10:45 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings are up north of Baffin Bay to Port Oconnor, TX.
The system has a pressure of 985mb, which could indicate that the storm is on it's way to hurricane status and may be so sometime tomorrow.
The current project landfall takes Alex just south of the Texas/Mexico border as a hurricane, bringing plenty of rain, wind, and storm surge to the area as it approaches and moves relatively slowly. For storm surge, the highest will be at and immediately north of the storm. For rain, most of the Rio Grande valley has the potential to see flooding rains, and winds depends on just how strong the storm gets before landfall.
Those in the Hurricane Warning Area need to prepare tomorrow and Wednesday and listen to local officials and media for any evacuation orders. The current forecasted timing puts conditions deteriorating in the warning area Wednesday afternoon and overnight.
Most of the models have converged in the warning area and may flip flop north and south of the border tomorrow.
4:30 PM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Baffin Bay, TX northward to Port O'Connor, TX (Roughly midway between Corpus Christi and Galveston), in addition to the Hurricane Watches that are up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico.
Alex is expected to strengthen more tomorrow once it shakes the dry air and shear it currently is facing. The general thought of landfall in Mexico still has not changed, although the strong side of the storm may reach into South Texas.
The hurricane center may issue Hurricane Warnings for parts of the Hurricane Watch Area later tonight.
Those in the Hurricane Watch area should be starting preparations soon, and note there is a lot of rain potentially with Alex that could cause flooding problems around the Rio Grande valley even if it were to landfall south of the border.
11 AM EDT Update 28 June 2010
Hurricane Watches up from Baffin Bay, TX southward to La Cruz, Mexico, as Tropical Storm Alex slowly strengthens.
Those in the watch area, Including Brownsville and South Padre Island, need to start preparations for possible hurricane conditions arriving on Thursday (early).
Landfall is currently most likely just south of the border, perhaps bringing the strong side of the storm into Brownsville. The Euro forecast model (EMWCF) suggests the system may slow down or stall right around the time of landfall.
Those in the cone of uncertainty (now including Corpus Christi) will need to watch the progress of Alex as well.
6:30 AM Update 28 June 2010
Not too much new with Alex this morning, a slow moving system that will likely strengthen slowly, and could rapid intensify really at any time, but it looks like it won't be today. There is a shot of dry air coming in from the northwest and higher than forecast shear that will likely keep strengthening on the slow side today, but otherwise conditions are favorable for strengthening. Alex may become a hurricane tomorrow.
Track wise the situation is more complex, still leaning toward eventually west in Mexico Thursday, but the slow movement is going to stay for today, waiting until Alex reacts or not to a weakness in the ridge.
It really boils down to, the stronger Alex gets the more likely it will head north, but if it remains a tropical storm longer the more likely it is to go further left (and south). As well as how much the ridge to the north develops.
Recon is approaching Alex now, and hopefully will have some good data in a few hours.
* Because of this, preparations wise, anyone in the Cone needs to watch and be prepared for the possibility of a hurricane heading your way late this week. If watches and especially warnings are issued in your area later this week start to take that plan into action. Watches may come as soon as tonight.
Alex Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Alex
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Alex
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alex
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alex (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Alex
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alex
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alex -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Original Update
Tropical Storm Alex has regained some strength back over water and is now a Tropical Storm Again, with a pressure of 991 mb, low, but not relatively so to the surrounding area.
It has slowed down a great deal, the average speed of 7mph is probably less by now, even closer to stationary.
The general thought for the track is that it meanders gradually west and northwest. The models taking it further north appear to be outliers and the general track toward the Mexican coastline around Thursday is the current official track, and the confidence is a bit higher than earlier in the day. The track would take it midway between Tampico and the Texas/Mexico border. However all those in the forecast cone should watch Alex closely.
Intensity is the real question, it may take time for Alex to regain strength since it's so large, but it has a good head start. Conditions are good for a gradual intensification, if the core catches hold it may burst later, but some of the intensity models aren't suggesting it. It may gain strength earlier than projected. A stronger storm would allow it to nudge more northward, staying relatively weaker would probably indicate more westward, but still the general Northwest to West movement is what is expected.
So far it looks like Alex is on it's way to be stronger by the morning.
Belize Radar Recording (Flhurricane)
Belize City Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
San Pedro Belize Webcam Recording(Flhurricane)
Weather at Belize City
Weather at Campeche, Mexico
Weather at Veracruz, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico
Weather at Tampico, Mexico
Flhurricane Facebook page
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Since a few asked, yes is firmly in the "western" camp for the models. (Euro) has been doing well with this one so far, and all the models moving the system more north have been consistently too far north throughout 93L's transition to a tropical Storm. We are watching for changes closely, but until the trend changes I doubt that assumption will change.
Now that Alex is getting really slow and may popping up in strength the real intense watching begins, but the overall thinking remains generally toward the west.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon just circled in the coc, coming in from the NW and heading back out to the NW... data shows pressure the same 991mb.. maybe 1mb lower... but center fix did move to near
Time: 02:54:30Z Coordinates: 19.2333N 91.2167W.... so that would be NW of last center fix... waiting on GPS dropsonde now.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looking at the latest model run. Residents from Brownsville,TX to Lake Charles/ Cameron,LA are under the model tracks. Extremely wide margin of error.
Also included is the Mexico Coast from Merida to Tampico is in the Cone of (Un)Certainty.
This storm is so large I'd bet it's generating swells on the Pacific Coast of Southern Mexico.
Lightning beginning to increase in the overland areas.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the latest VORTEX remarks section.
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the north quadrant at 1:39:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Using Google Earth this location is just over 75 miles north of the center. Over water but still a strong wind.
It could be due to the winds running up over the water after passing over the Yucatan Peninsula. There were two measurements near the same speed adjacent to each other.
Once the Center moves completely over the BOC Alex could generate some rather long swells in the GOM.
Present position is roughly 700 miles SSW of the Oil Spill.
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kpthras7
Unregistered
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can darby influence the direction of alex?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Alex had some effect on Darby over the weekend, but not too much the other way around.
The hurricane center put the word in the discussion this morning that they are thinking up placing watches up tonight, so those in the Cone Area may want to think about it.
Really stronger system means further north, weaker system likely further west/south.
The structure took a shock overnight and the dry air and shear look to be keeping Alex in check today at least. Alex will strengthen, but slowly today.
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jasonch
Unregistered
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What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
What is the probability of this storm getting further north, and when would we know if this could happen. I live in Houston, tx.
Roughly 7%, it gets much higher the further south you go, highest is in Mexico around San Fernando at about 43%. In short very doubtful you will have much to deal with in Alex as far as Landfall goes.
Current model trends are shifting toward the north, but have also continued to fall to the right of where the storm actually has gone.
If you were to base it solely on the models right now, Brownsville would be the middle of it, with plenty on either side. Trends on the storm overall would suggest further south, and of course the official hurricane forecast is still toward the south.
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jasonch
Unregistered
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I keep hearing the stronger the storm the farther north it would go. What do you think about that quote. How strong and how much further north could it get.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC seems to be sticking to their models that Alex will stay to the left side of the cone.
I did see the following in the latest Discussion:
THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.
I would probably start to look at the possibility of Hurricane Conditions along the whole Texas Coastline this week... by Friday. Based on the last 24 hours of models shifting slighty to the north every 6 hours. And Alex being forecast to make 90 knots or 100 mph. Wind field is probably going to be large due to the size of the storm and pressure gradients. Alex has a large satellite signature at this time and I don't see a lot of reason for the size to shrink.
Check the Windspeed probablilities at .
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ or at
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT1
Note... they change every 6 hours. Houston's present cumulative 13% probability of Tropical Storm force winds, thru Midnight Friday night, could go up or down 6 hours from now.
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Good Morning!
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...p;ft=0&sl=0
The above has the right strength, IMHO-a Cat 2 strong as it hits land.
90+% of the models have Alex hugging the coast as it turns and moves up E Texas
coming w/in 150 miles of DFW Int'l. Even if Alex follows the track there will be major
flooding Brownsville N as the Cat 2 Storm weakens/blow up with it's turn North.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2010/clark1latest.png
Clark's Models have Alex now at the Eastern side of it's same Models as of
24 hrs ago.
Those Models have it stalling/moving N of Corpus Christi Wednesday PM. Houston
will get at least 6-10 in. Think TS Allison:
Effects of Tropical Storm Allison in Texas - Wikipedia, the free ...
Tropical Storm Allison was a major flood disaster throughout its path from Texas ... In the Port of Houston, a total of 36.99 inches (940 mm) was reported. .... [22] Thirty-five volunteer services provided aid for the flood victims in ...
en.wikipedia.org/.../Effects_of_Tropical_Storm_Allison_in_Texas -
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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000
URNT12 KNHC 281152
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 28/11:32:20Z
B. 20 deg 02 min N
091 deg 33 min W
C. 925 mb 593 m
D. 46 kt
E. 063 deg 14 nm
F. 131 deg 57 kt
G. 053 deg 24 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 20 C / 761 m
J. 23 C / 707 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0501A ALEX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NE QUAD 11:23:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
GOOD SPIRAL BAND EAST SIDE OF CENTER FIX
;
Pressure is down a bit, which explains the slight increase in MAX WINDS. Spiral banding is not a good sign this close to land. I don't see any other changes in the VORTEX since 12 hours ago.
This system has a tenacious vortex in the center as it has remained at low levels of intensity since leaving the African Coast. Evidenced by the formation of an eye yesterday morning over land. See yesterday's thread for images.
Another mention of Tropical Storm Allison. Alex gives me a bad feeling.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 28 2010 08:56 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Best track has Alex around 50knots (Ie 55-60mph), Alex will probably continue to slowly strengthen today, if it shakes land interaction, shear, and the dry air it has a shot for rapid intensification tomorrow.
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5m0k3
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 2
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
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I can't help but think Google Wave would be a perfect platform for discussing tropical activity:
https://wave.google.com/wave/waveref/wellsb.com/w+A8iP5_e3A
http://wellsb.com/post/738067595/hurricane-watches-up-for-alex
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX
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10 am CDT update is out, track shifted right again. This is going to be a crappy 4th of July for South Texas!!
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Hurricane watch from Baffin Bay South to the border has been issued by . Also in Mexico
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I added several Brownsville related links to the main page, and will be tracking it closely for Brownsville.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Alex is getting the impact of the shear, upper level low, and dry air from Texas now, and may hold or weaken a bit from the looks of it. Pressure on recon is already up some.
Tomorrow it will likely recover from this.
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CLWeather
Unregistered
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Is that some type of weird anomaly I hope that the Noon is picking up off the west coast of Florida in four days? 
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