MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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10PM EDT 30 June 2010
ALex has made landfall in Mexico with 105MPH winds, and a a minimum central pressure of 947mb. This is the strongest June Hurricane since Hurricane Alma in 1966.
SInce the core of Alex went ashore in a very sparsely populated area, most of the affects from the system will be the incredible amounts of rainfall.
7PM EDT 30 June 2010
Hurricane Alex is now a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100mph, it has a pressure of 950mb, and is moving toward the west. It will make landfall between 9PM-Midnight CDT.
6PM EDT 30 June 2010
Alex is a few hours away from Landfall just south of the border in Mexico. Flooding, Surge, and power outages are starting to show up in South Texas. The minimum pressure of the Hurricane has reached 951mb, which is extraordinarily low for a Category 1 Hurricane, in fact it could be a mid range category 2 now.
Alex is an extremely large hurricane, with a very large windfield.
Alex Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=1 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Alex
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Alex
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Alex
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Alex (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Alex
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Alex
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Alex -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Brownsville Texas Area Forecast Discussion
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Brownsville Storm Rainfall Totals loop
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
Microwave imagery of Alex (MIMIC)
Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area
Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center
Southeast Texas Power Outage Map
Weather Observations:
Corpus Christi, Texas
Kingsville NAS, Texas
Harlingen, Texas
Brownsville, Texas
Matamoros, Mexico
Ciudad Victoria, Mexico
Tampico, Mexico
Local Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
Chaser Twitter feeds:
Weatherzine/Jeff Gammons
Extreme Storms/Jim Edds
Webcams:
South Padre Island Isla Grand Resort Cam Alex (2010) Recording
South Padre Island Beach Cam Alex (2010) Recording
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams
Live video from Mexico near projected landfall point.
South Padre Island Live Video Stream
11AM 30 June 2010 Update
Alex is still slowly strengthening based on Recon reports. According to the discussion, It appears the northwesterly jog will end soon and it will head west, and perhaps a bit south of west later today.
South Padre Island Causeway is now being prepped to be closed in high winds.
Those in the Warning area need to use local officials and local media for more detailed information, there are some media links below.
7AM 30 June 2010 Update
Alex is slowly strengthening, in fact, recent recon reports indicate that pressure has fallen to 959, which means Alex may become a Category 2 hurricane today.
Forecasted track is still into Mexico, with most of the energy on the right (or northern side) of the center, those in Brownsville and the Rio Grande Valley will be seeing deteriorating conditions today into tonight.
Original Update
Alex has become the first June Atlantic hurricane since Allison in 1995 (Which was the first hurricane ever tracked on this website). The storm is headed due west toward Mexico.
Alex is a large storm and effects from it will be felt fairly far north, those in the Hurricane Warning area should not let their guard down. Forward motion of the storm appears to have slowed somewhat, but the official forecast takes Alex in land tomorrow night around 8-10PM.
It may have a chance to strengthen a bit more before landfall.
No changes with watches/warnings.
Hurricane Warnings still reach into South Texas around Baffin Bay, and effects from the storm will certainly be felt there, mostly rain and some storm surge. The landfall point in Mexico is where most of the impact will be felt. For those asking about the impact on the oil spill, the waves kicked up will likely move the oil around a bit and possibly cause oil to wash up on beaches further east where it hasn't yet, but it is difficult to tell.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Added combination radar of Brownsville + Mexican Radars:
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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It can not be emphasized enough that Alex is both an unusually large and especially wet tropical cyclone, particularly for the ATL this early in a season. Given the holiday week, many vacationers to Mexico or Texas - and perhaps also even Louisiana and other states should Alex continue to push numerous outer rainbands ("rainbands," to put it mildly!) - may not be accustomed to this type of an event.
Alex may yet inch up the coast prior to landfall, coming ashore and moving inland closer to more densely populated regions of Mexico and/or Texas. Also, there is some reasonable thinking now that Alex could move inland, only to then do any number of possible loops, to then hook back across the southern gulf states. For now, these scenarios, while considered possible, are outliers.
But even if Alex were to merely come ashore within 200 miles or so to the south of the Tx/Mx border, the circulation envelope and associated mass of rainbands - some clearly capable of dropping many inches or rain per hour for hours on end - make the potential for flooding very high this week.
As the saying goes, "Turn Around Don't Drown"
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Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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The threat with Alex will be rain and flooding. Monterrey, MX is a major city south of TX and Alex will present a very real flooding threat to Monterrey and the surrounding mountainside. Alex's track is pretty much straightforward and while Brownsville to Corpus Christi will be affected given it is on the north and east side of Alex...the wet side...flooding is likely there as well. I hope this helps..take care...Sincerely, Bill
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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waiting on recon to arrive in center... there not to far to the NE.. flight level winds now at 5kft around 75mph... within 100 miles from center... taken a guess... pressure down to 967mb? winds 85mph.... will see in a bit.. recon 75 miles out...
also... is that an eye trying to pop out?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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recon just did a loop in the center... width only about 10 miles... coming in from the NE winds were as high as 92mph i think... looks like pressure may have fallen below 960mb too! waiting on dropsonde data... appears a very small eye...
update
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 30th day of the month at 08:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 01L in 2010
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 30th day of the month at 8:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°19'N 95°00'W (23.3167N 95.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 239 miles (384 km) to the SE (139°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,075m (3,527ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 82kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 94.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 961mb (28.38 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 8:33:40Z
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jun 30 2010 05:00 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The center of Alex is now visible on Long Range Radar From Brownsville.
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Pressure is now down to 959 mb from Recon, which is usually incredibly low for a Cat 1 hurricane, it may get upgraded at 8.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Latest EYE Dropsonde has 958mb. Pressure continues to slowly drop.
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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Storm ALEX: Observed By Air Force #306
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 89KT (102.4mph 164.8km/h) In NE Quadrant At 12:35:50Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 80.1KT (92.1mph 148.4km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 12:35:50Z MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 12:35:50Z ;
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, June 30, 2010 8:12:00 AM (Wed, 30 Jun 2010 12:12:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 23° 32' N 095° 12' W (23.5°N 95.2°W) [See Map]
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1052m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 56KT (64.4MPH 103.7km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 217°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 62KT (71.3mph 114.8km/h) From 300°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 8nm (9.2 miles) From Center At Bearing 217°
Minimum pressure: 958mb (28.29in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 9 nm (10.4 mi 16.7km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 1nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Alex is a massive storm.
If you look on the NWAtlantic water vapor loop you see Alex is as big as the big ULL East of Florida. Alex and the ULL off florida along with another ULL in the mid Atlantic are all lined up "horizontally" in that view like 3 giant buzz saws.
Alex is impressive as it's as big or bigger than the big ULL in size.
Alex's pressure is very low for its wind speed. Let's hope the winds do not catch up to the pressure falls of last night and this morning.
Alex needs to get into Mexico fast. The quicker it does the less time the winds will have to pick up and hopefully the rains can subside faster. I'm afraid the flooding will be tremendous and we all know that often times flooding is the big killer especially in the higher elevations of Mexico.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Added two webcam recordings
Note: All these cams seem to be off now.
South Padre Island Surf Cam Alex (2010)
South Padre Island Beach Cam Alex (2010)
radars are still recording at:
Radar Recording of both Brownsville and Altamira, Mexico Radars
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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I read this and thought is was humerous.... The seas are Confused......
http://forecast.weather.gov/shmrn.php?mz=gmz470&syn=gmz400
Added 10:20am
Thanks Ed and all the regulars, this site is great not only for knowledge, but for little fun facts and so forth like this.
Edited by mwillis (Wed Jun 30 2010 10:21 AM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually it is a common usage term that is used to describe a particular character of the sea:
"Character of the sea swell
0. None
Low 1. Short or average
2. Long
Moderate 3. Short
4. Average
5. Long
Heavy 6. Short
7. Average
8. Long
9. Confused
Direction from which swell is coming should be recorded.
Confused swell should be recorded as "confused northeast, if coming from the direction of northeast."
ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Alex is spinning up again.
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Wind Outbound: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 89kts (~ 102.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:19:10Z
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Intensity:
If it wasn't for the fact that Alex is a tremendously large hurricane, its radius of winds would be much more compact, as would the speeds, and thus their intensity. But in Alex, as like Ike for most of its duration in the GOM, the winds are spread way out - with tropical storm force winds extending out to roughly 200 miles from the center.
The minimum pressure at last pass in Alex would often support a high-end Cat 2/low-end Cat 3 cyclone ,and it is still possible that Alex wraps up a bit tighter prior to landfall. A landfall as a solid Cat 2 is possible, or potentially even Cat 3 is slightly possible, mostly depending on how much more time Alex has over water.
Track:
As of 13:45 UTC, Alex has been showing some signs of edging to the right again, rather than staying basically due west as had been the case since last night. Should this become a trend and then continue for a little while longer, Alex will be a little off track, but not necessarily out of the cone. However, this needs to be watched, as even a small but lasting shift to the right could imply significantly more wind impacts for many densely populated sections of south Texas.
It is important to remember that Alex is now - and generally has been - a much deeper tropical cyclone than most models runs have been accounting for. Deeper, better-formed tropical cyclones are subject to a different set of steering currents than weaker TCs, and for the better part of the past few days, these steering currents have supported a potential track that would be farther up the coastline for a deeper system, which Alex actually is.
Also, historically, TCs coming ashore along the coastline from roughly northern Mexico to the upper Texas coast are susceptible to regional influences that sometimes tend to tug and pull them northward the closer they are to actually coming ashore.
Impacts:
Flooding. The greatest impacts from Alex are all going to be about the rain and potential for serious flash flooding - an extraordinarily large and very wet hurricane - the hurricane force winds are restricted to a relatively small region around the very center.
Waterspouts and tornadoes are probable within the dirty part of the hurricane (right hand side, primarily in the right front quadrant).
Wind damage - There will be some to be sure. Tropical storm force winds, primarily in gusts, extend out to 200 miles from the center. Strong tropical storm force winds, even just in gusts, can take down trees that are rooted in saturated ground. South and east Texas have already had several days of widespread rain, some of it very substantial.
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
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Good point. If you click on the forecast points, Alex is already a bit to the east. If that track holds, looks like a landfall pretty close to Brownsville. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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This should be interesting to see how Ales reacts to 31 degree SST's. When you look at the loop frame with the SST box checked you can see that he is about to run into a large patch of warm water. Does anyone notice a more Northern than western movement?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rgb.html
Well I went back to look again 6 min after I posted this and the SST data changed on the loop. So no more 31 SST's I guess??? 
11:36 AM
I think I see the eye in water imagery. Its 25 long, 95.6 lat.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Edited by mwillis (Wed Jun 30 2010 11:39 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I ran a Surge model on Advisory number 4 and at that time the center was forecast to go ashore just south of Brownsville.
Landfall was forecast at that time to be on the Point just south of Brownsville. This morning's surge model was much further south of the Point.
Advisory number 20 surge model is still showing a left turn before landfall south of the inlet, south of Brownsville. Trying to find the name of the area.
Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 30 2010 11:38 AM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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It seems Alex is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Recon confirmed the 8 mile wide eye had collapsed and I expect we will see a much larger eye form later today which will in turn spread out the wind field and allow further deepening
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Brownsville Info Links
Cameron County Texas, Scanner Audio Feed (Police/Fire/EMT) -- Brownsville Area
Cameron County, TX Emergency Operations Center
Southeast Texas Power Outage Map
cal Media:
Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
South Padre Island Breeze
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KVEO News Channel 23
KURV 710 News/Talk Radio
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