Looking at this morning's satellite and radar evolution of 97L, a case can certainly be made for heightened concern for this systems continued development and future motion. Add the increased model support and one cannot help but more than simply raise an eyebrow, especially in light of general proximity to the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. Less scientific, yet something that I have personally taken note of over the many years of chasing and tracking hurricanes, is an anomaly that I've seen repeated many times over the years. Quite often I have noticed an approximate 30 day cycle ( often in conjunction with the various new or full moon phases ) with regard to tropical cyclogenisis. Given Alex's development last month, I was somewhat anticipating the development of another tropical system around the 24th of this month. Of course, we no doubt have climatology working in 97L's favor, and our Atlantic season would typically see a "ramp up" of activity right around now.
All this said, I don't think it is going that much out on a limb to anticipate bumping up 97L's chance for development to perhaps 50-60%, at the 2:00pm today. Providing we see continued organization throughout the day, I would expect perhaps a heightened concern by and the media by late this evening. Given the recent increased bursting of the convection on the systems east side and general radar presentation, we might start seeing somewhat more impressive pressure falls by later today. In this current formative state, and provided that some "deepening" might occur later today and tonight, I would doubt as much westward ( or WNW ) motion would occur as most models have depicted in the short term. Given the 594mb pressures at the mid levels, seemingly anchored over the S.E. U.S., and bridging eastward, I would not imagine an already developing depression ( or storm ) would tend to gain quite as much latitude as many of this mornings models have indicated. For the moment, there would seem to be a shear axis not too far west of 97L, yet this southern edge of the might be cutting off into what might be a westward moving low, and longer term 200mb from 12Z today seem to have general ridging over Florida.
For the moment, and from the still somewhat "weak limb" I am hanging onto, I am projecting 97L to slowly develop in the near term ( out to 36 hours ), while attaining Tropical Depression status between mid morning and early afternoon tomorrow ( conveniently when recon is scheduled to be present ). I would anticipate shorter term motion to be more westward than northwestward, and motion to threaten eventual direct impact to the Florida Keys ( or perhaps passing just south of ) sometime midday or late Saturday. My big concern would be if should such a scenario were to play out, but given the considerably warmer waters further west ( throughout the Western Bahamas and around Florida ), AND dependent on how soon any well developed anticyclone that might develop over the system, and suddenly the potential for a more significant hurricane impact might exist.
For the moment am anticipating that a Cat. 1 - Cat. 2 Hurricane will be threatening the Florida Keys and Florida Straights on late Saturday. Beyond there, would anticipate continued WNW motion until perhaps later in the forecast period when the anchored ridge over Tennessee/Georgia might weaken or edge eastward. Too soon for me to guess downstream upper air with regards to motion or later intensity, but my "gut" would be that later term risk might be more towards the N.W. Gulf, rather than the N.E. gulf region.
Best case, the models ( and I ) are way off the mark and a vigorous wave moves WNW. Worse case in my mind however......would have less to do with Bonnie, and more to do with what more intense August/September tracks might eventually follow a "quasi-establish" general pattern of motion. 
(Just a reminder that 'gut feeling' forecasts really belong in the Lounge. Some good stuff here, but explanations of 'why' certain motion or intensity was expected are the elements that are expected in the Storm Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 20 2010 11:14 PM)
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