Ed in Va
Weather Master
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You're probably right, but it's essentially over land right now. Let's wait until it gets back in the Gulf before we write her obituary.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Latest (within the last hour or so) infrared images of what is left of Bonnie depict a system on life support. As some things on life support do occassionally do, however, it's made a bit of a comeback as it made landfall just north of Key Largo. The latest image on the Miami radar indicates that landfall occurred at around 10:00am ET, roughly five minutes ago. Some very impressive convection formed over the apparent LLC right as the storm crossed the barrier island just offshore of the mainland. I just refreshed the radar, which loaded the 10:02am ET images, and that one shows Bonnie about to cross over the mainland coastline. On the current heading, that would put whatever is left (if anything) into the Gulf around Everglades City in a few hours.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
Miami Storm relative velocity loop is showing what appears to be 2 or 3 vortices rotating around the center. Northernmost vortice is just east of Miami while the southwestern most vortice is just east of Key Largo. Look for the empty circular areas.
I see it now. Looks like the edge of the true center just came ashore in Key Largo. The worst of the weather seems to be in a strong band that will push into the Homestead/Coral Gables area in the next hour or so. Another band is pushing thru Boca (where I work).
I wonder what the will put the wind speeds at during their next update. 25 mph? No way its blowing 40 mph... other then maybe an offshore gust or two. And what's up with the "tropical storm winds extend out up to 85 miles"? I find that impossible to believe.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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im wondering if the 11am update will shift the track north and lower it back to a TD. i really dont see a WNW movement it all seems NW. also it is very weak.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Considering that the LLC is now inland, it is almost a certainty that Bonnie has weakened to a depression, and will be downgraded at the 11am advisory. I say almost, because there's a possibility that some offshore winds still remain about 35kts. Since it made landfall a bit north of the projected location, a track shift is also reasonable. What remains to be seen is, whether Bonnie exists in the Gulf at all. If the LLC degenerates, the track is pretty much irrelevant.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WesnWylie
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I have a feeling that they will downgrade Bonnie to a depression at the 10:00 a.m.CDT update too. If in fact Bonnie is a depression or remnant low after it crosses the peninsula, the track will likely shift back toward the west due to a weaker system. Also, if the circulation reforms in another place once in the gulf, the track will change. The entire coast should continue to keep an eye on Bonnie.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Bonnie continues to be impacted by shear aloft and her appearance on satellite verifies this fact as Bonnie continues to be elongated from NNW to SSE. There is a bullsye of 40 + knots along the W FL coast and Bonnie is near 20 knot isotach. The ULL is now about 300 miles due south of LA and continues to move west. Upper level flow over Bonnie remains SE to NW thus Bonnie has not been able to sustain any amount of vertical depth at this time. There will be a small window of opportunity for Bonnie to regain some strength but not much given her speed. Based on recent recon data Bonnie maybe downgraded to a depression though I would be surprised if they did now that Bonnie is near the coast and warnings at this time should be left in place for continuity.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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There is one buoy..FWYF1 at 25.59N 80.10W at 1400Z reporting sustain winds of vector 070 at 40 knots sustained gusting to 46 knots and a 0.08 pressure fall over the past hour. Bonnie should be making landfall at anytime if not already. She's moving at near 20 mph...very fast.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Observed at RSMAS
JUL23
10:44
Temp 83°F/28°C
Wind NE(57°) 28mph/24kts
Pressure 1012 hPa
Humidity 93%
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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist
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Looks like on radar the center is in right around Homestead area, just south of Miami.
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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No change in the 11AM update - Fowey Rocks, FL (in the middle of Biscayne Bay) reports winds at 40 gusting to 45, pressure still falling ever so slightly. Guess that one report is enough to keep this "thing" at TS status. Winds in Miami are gusting into the 30 mph range but that's it.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The system is tightly wrapped and has the potential to bypass sensors other than doppler radar. Even doppler has it's faults when being used against low level circulations at a distance. Key West radar should be close to giving the best data right now.
URNT12 KNHC 231503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 23/14:41:20Z ( 10:41 EDT )
B. 25 deg 29 min N
080 deg 17 min W
C. 925 mb 761 m
D. 31 kt
E. 218 deg 3 nm
F. 017 deg 33 kt
G. 277 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C / 764 m
J. 24 C / 765 m (inside the center)
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0503A BONNIE OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 34 KT NE QUAD 14:42:10Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 23 2010 03:43 PM)
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010
...BONNIE MAKES LANDFALL IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
SURFACE...RADAR AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM
EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE MADE LANDFALL
IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR CUTLER BAY WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 40
MPH...65 KM/HR.
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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It is still amazing to me that the models and consensus still show this thing moving more west than north while the radar clearly shows it moving almost due northeast. Looks like the central circulation may run just south of Sarasota which is still completely outside of the cone. Odd situation. I am thinking Pensacola and Tallahassee need to be a bit more on alert about this than New Orleans.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Radar and satellite imagery indicate that the western edge of the LLC will be exiting into the GOM south of Marco Island.within the hour. Movement seems to be due west. Most of the associated rain will exit the peninsuala in the next three hours. It is moving quiclky.
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doug
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doug
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What an interesting feature this really is. I will be curious to see just how long the keeps this classified. It appears that most of the energy is being absorbed into what can only be described as an inverted trough spawned by the ULL now in the mid GOM. It is almost as if I am watching the remains of a tropical system be absorbed into a frontal trough, but it is a mirror image of that. All of the energy will clearly go NW'ly into the barrier that is now between the ULL and an upper ridge over the SE . That ridge's eastern and southern extent are pushing Bonnie's center generally westward, while the energy seems to be headed Nw'd. Just my take.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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This appears to be an bit of an increase from the earlier vortex.
URNT12 KNHC 231617
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032010
A. 23/15:47:10Z
B. 25 deg 31 min N
080 deg 30 min W
C. 925 mb 765 m
D. 36 kt
E. 051 deg 44 nm
F. 122 deg 40 kt
G. 055 deg 37 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 22 C / 762 m
J. 25 C / 767 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 9
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0503A BONNIE OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 41 KT NW QUAD 16:01:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
***************************************************
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010
...BONNIE...LESS ORGANIZED...MOVING RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Edited by danielw (Fri Jul 23 2010 05:46 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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These coordinates confirm that movement of the LLC is slightly north of due west. I have noted that the convection that is on the immediate north and west of the LLC have shown an increase since the western edge has touched the water. The center itself will likely cross into the GOM somewhere between Naples and Bonita, probably in two hours. There is only scatterred shower activity arranged in bands following the passage of the center. The heaviest rain area is rapidly moving out to the NW.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Convection is starting to flare up on the western side near Everglades City in the last frames of the vis loop. Looks like the CoC will enter the GOM between Everglades City and Naples soon.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Convection is there but it appears well west of surface center.... which is kinda becoming broader as we go into time.... Shear is winning the battle right now... appears it not just Upper level shear... maybe some mid level winds in and around 18kft and higher... coming in from the NE over much part of the eastern side of bonnie. In the sats... theres upper level shear screaming to the NW over the Key West. Very unique setup... If Bonnie survives... it will need to get into the GOM soon and get storms flaring up again... trying to beat the shear is the short term... i don't see it happening this afternoon
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Carribbean
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Florida
**interesting the second vortex fix was done over land by the Air Force before they departed and went home** Do you still drop a GPS dropsonde over land?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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