Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Nothing currently in the Atlantic Basin, for Late October the West Caribbean is usually where to monitor.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Nate) , Major: 28 (Maria) Florida - Any: 38 (Irma) Major: 38 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Disturbance in the Caribbean
      #88482 - Fri Jul 23 2010 05:03 PM

There is an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean today. This area flared up yesterday, but it appears to have increased in organization this afternoon. This area may have a chance to develop in the next day or two IF the convection persists.

Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Jul 23 2010 05:25 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88486 - Fri Jul 23 2010 06:43 PM

I was just going to comment on this. Just to the South of Hispaniola, it does appear to have some spin going on. Also, the shear is relatively light. I wonder why NHC hasn't picked up on it yet.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: MichaelA]
      #88488 - Fri Jul 23 2010 07:04 PM

I have a feeling that the NHC will highlight this area soon. Personally, I think it looks like there is some development already underway. It will be interesting to see what this does tonight and tomorrow.

By the way, the area I am talking about is the area south of Hispaniola-like you mentioned.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88491 - Fri Jul 23 2010 08:39 PM

I believe this is the same area that joe Bastardi mentioned yesterday that poses a more significant threat to the gulf in about a week. He was more concerned about this one than he was with bonnie.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral 28.37N 80.80W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: Jasonch]
      #88495 - Fri Jul 23 2010 09:07 PM

NRL has Invest up for the area mentioned in previous posts
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: mwillis]
      #88498 - Sat Jul 24 2010 12:06 AM

Actually that image is for 97L - the system that became Bonnie. The coordinates are for 97L on the 22nd but the image does show the area in question below Hispaniola. If NRL starts an Invest for the Caribbean system the number would likely be 98L (since nothing else is going on in the basin).
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88499 - Sat Jul 24 2010 12:59 AM

98L was given to the disturbance over the Bay of Campeche a couple of days ago. This disturbance is experiencing 20 knots of shear at the moment...24-0500Z but lighter shear ahead as it moves west. This system bears watching.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: berrywr]
      #88500 - Sat Jul 24 2010 01:03 AM

You are correct - and others have pointed that out to me as well. The next Invest number for the Atlantic would be 99L.
Thanks,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88501 - Sat Jul 24 2010 03:03 AM

Well, I got caught with my britches down two days ago...I thought Bonnie was done while an open wave but left the door open it could become a tropical depression just for the sake of covering my hind parts.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: berrywr]
      #88502 - Sat Jul 24 2010 08:22 AM

well the NHC has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: Jasonch]
      #88503 - Sat Jul 24 2010 10:47 AM

Quote:

well the NHC has highlighted the area in the caribbean and gives it a 1% chance of developement. Developement is not anticipated because of its close proximity to yet another upper level low. What is the deal with all these upper level lows, is this normal. It just seems to me that this Hurricane Season forecast was way over done. All the ingredients needed are just not there.




Umm its July 24th. I'd say the forecast was way overdone if this was November 30th and we still only had 2 storms.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #88504 - Sat Jul 24 2010 12:17 PM

The chance for this area to develop has greatly diminished as, not one, but two upper-lows are shearing it apart. Unless something changes, which will not be in the near term, this area will likely amount to nothing.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88505 - Sat Jul 24 2010 12:57 PM

I've not heard much on the big flare up over the BOC. Its been very persistent and seems to be moving away from the coast perhaps due to the influence of ULL in the NW GOM. It looks rather impressive right now

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: Jasonch]
      #88506 - Sat Jul 24 2010 01:06 PM Attachment (196 downloads)

These ULLs are called TUTT lows...

A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones which may inhibit their strengthening. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995). Courtesy of AMOL (NOAA)."

Bonnie has been pestered by a TUTT low since birth, currently in the Western GOM. It and the upper ridge over the SE USA has been the system's steering mechanism since day one and Wind Shear analysis has made that point very clear. Frankly, it was a fluke it formed into a depression, but there was one day where the shear lightened considerably before making its presence known the following day. Bonnie's undoing was her speed. The thinking originally would be for the ULL to get out of the way; however Bonnie was moving so fast that it never got away from the ULL winds aloft. Bonnie never had an opportunity to gain any vertical depth thus was steered by the tropical easterlies that are evident this time of year.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Sat Jul 24 2010 01:07 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Disturbance in the Caribbean [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88507 - Sat Jul 24 2010 01:19 PM

There is a well defined ULL to the north of the system. It too is a TUTT low. There is an interesting feature just to the NW of the Bay of Campeche; however it is so close to the MX coast that it may not garner the attention of the NHC.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 6 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 7196

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center