MikeC
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Update - 11PM EDT, July 31PM,2010
The area in the east Atlantic has been dropped (as 90L), it still has a good chance at forming sometime this coming week, but it may be re designated later because the old 90L area actually was several. If the new area is re designated it may suggest a further westward track and those in the Northeastern Caribbean will want to watch the system.
Still too early to tell beyond that, but it's worth watching over the week, especially if it develops.
Update - 7PM EDT, July 29,2010
A wave in the Eastern Atlantic near 30 West and at a very low latitude has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours. This will likely move generally westward and has a better chance for development next week. This has been designated 90L by the Tropical Prediction Center. It likely won't have a real chance to develop until it gets a little further north of where it goes, so it may not develop at all. Forecast models are nearly useless this far out. That said, currently, the most likely scenario is that the system stays out to sea (But odds are only slightly in this favor)
Another area east of the Bahamas has a 10% chance for development, and isn't as likely to develop overall, but will need to be watched if it survives and persists in the eastern Caribbean.
Update - 6PM EDT, July 26,2010
Over the Atlantic Basin, it is currently Quiet, with nothing imminent for development. The only area currently that could be something later is the area in the Central Atlantic, but chances are extremely low anything will be seen from it.
This will likely end July quietly, with things likely ramping up by mid August.
Update - 7AM EDT, July 25,2010
The remnant low of what was left of Bonnie drifted ashore near the mouth of the Mississippi River last night, bringing some showers to eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Convective activity still persists south of Tampico, Mexico, and east of Nicaragua - but near-term development is not expected.
SAL and windshear still evident in the central and eastern Atlantic so the Basin is rather quiet.
ED
Original Post
Bonnie crossed Florida from South of Miami and exited the west coast near Ft. Myers, and is now back over water in the Gulf of Mexico. It is a very sheared system, but the center is being aggressive at reforming and may become a Tropical Storm again before another landfall in Mississippi or Louisiana, perhaps as a sheared, but mid-strength Tropical Storm.
Thos along the northern Gulf coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area should watch Bonnie. Most likely it will bring a little rain and some wind to the area in the North Gulf, and perhaps a very slight storm surge, but nothing major.
Dual Radar recording of Bonnie Approach to South Florida and Northern Gulf coast (Flhurricane recording)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Recon did a pass on center... 1010mb surface center... convection north and nw of surface center
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 00:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 0:02:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°14'N 82°39'W (26.2333N 82.65W)
B. Center Fix Location: 56 miles (91 km) to the WSW (241°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 779m (2,556ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (297°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 65° at 37kts (From the ENE at ~ 42.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 126 nautical miles (145 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 23:22:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 24 2010 12:44 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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Recon just made a second pass on center... appears pressure still the same... but the exited out due north from center and appears that surface winds are TS force about 10 miles from center area and northward to last obs data i see... so Bonnie may be back at 40mph in next adv. or they may hold off to see if its a trend. Shear still appears to be winning!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
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convection is to the NW of surface center... with center being on the outside of those storms... there is some squally winds in there... Recon flew outbound threw the area... higher winds at flight level... and prolly a little bumpy too! hehe
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 01:54Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number & Year: 03L in 2010
Storm Name: Bonnie (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 1:36:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°13'N 83°03'W (26.2167N 83.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 79 miles (128 km) to the WSW (249°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 782m (2,566ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 1 nautical miles (1 statute miles) to the W (268°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 51° at 15kts (From the NE at ~ 17.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the NNW (339°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1010mb (29.83 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 765m (2,510ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 22°C (72°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:47:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the north quadrant at 1:47:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the E (89°) from the flight level center
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Jul 24 2010 02:09 AM)
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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And Bonnie is down for the count. Barring a Humberto style spinup, this system is pretty much done for.
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stormtiger
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but if Bonnie wasn't the most over-hyped tropical system I don't know what was.
Not talking about the guys here, or the pros at the because Bonnie was handled like any disorganized storm.
TWC, the networks, local news, the politicians here, etc. had this as a huge crisis. They hardly covered the science, it was all about planning for an imminent disaster.
I hope the public isn't turned off to all this panic reporting and when we really need to be vigilant they have tuned out the networks. A few more Bonnies will really hurt their credibility.
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flanewscameraman
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what is the large area of convection in the extreme southern part of the Caribbean, any one have any thoughts?
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JoshuaK
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The remnant CoC is coming onshore right now right where the Mississippi River Delta meets the GOM.
As for the Caribbean Activity, it seems there are several factors associated with the convection glob south of Cuba. I think its best described as from this snippet of the 8:05 PM EDT Discussion;
Quote:
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 60W...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N77W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 22N77W CENTER TO 15N80W. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTH OF
27N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 16N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST..AND FROM 17N TO 18N
BETWEEN 81W AND 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...CROSSING EASTERN CUBA TO 19N77W. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE 22N77W 15N80W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
A LINE FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NICARAGUA. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...
ACROSS EL SALVADOR...INTO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND EVENTUALLY
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 65W...POSSIBLY CONNECTED TO THE 24N67W-PUERTO RICO
TROUGH. THESE TROUGHS/AREAS OF CYCLONIC FLOW ARE TO THE EAST
AND/OR SLIGHTLY ON TOP OF THE 20N63W 11N67W TROPICAL WAVE.
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danielw
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Bonnie is far from typical as highlighted in this excerpt from New Orleans NWS Morning Forecast Discussion.
The remnants generated a Tornado Warning around 430 AM local time for Plaquemine Parish. Just south of New Orleans... where some of the BP Encampment is located.
One hour rainfall estimates of 3 inches per hour or more in the proximity of the storm center.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
508 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2010
.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW IS EVIDENT ON THE 88D RETURNS...AND
HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VERY CONCERNED ABOUT ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS
AND SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS NEAR THE REMNANT LOW CENTER SOUTH OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
STRONG CELL ROTATION IS NOT YOUR TYPICAL TROPICAL VARIETY WITH 60
KNOTS OR SHEAR DETECTED EARLIER WITH THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE
FIRST TORNADO WARNING NEAR LAFITTE LA.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 25 2010 11:42 AM)
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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cape canaveral
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99L is this a new invest?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...p&TYPE=ssmi
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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It sure looks like it. This is the area that the gives a near 0% chance of development though, which contradicts itself. Kind of puzzling. 
The model run shows it as 99L. These models were run @ 12Z today. http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=99
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
Edited by WesnWylie (Sun Jul 25 2010 05:44 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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See the thread 'Bay of Campeche' in The Tropics Today Forum for additional information on this initially overlooked system.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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I don't know about that. I'm watching the wave that is currently over the Yucatan as it moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico. It has been rather persistent and there appears to be some cyclonic turning, at least in the mid levels.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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The TPC Tropical Weather Discussion notes that there is a trough over the Yucatan, not a tropical wave - and the Discussion sums up the state of the Basin: 'VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SAHARAN AIR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN.'
Absolutely nothing wrong with 'quiet'.
ED
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Any possible development with the convection off the SC coast...is that just a trough or the end of a front?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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MikeC
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Quote:
Any possible development with the convection off the SC coast...is that just a trough or the end of a front?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
If it persists through the day, then yes, although chances are pretty low right now <2%.
Interesting to remember the last time the current set of names was used was in 2004. Colin replaces , Fiona replaces , Julia replaces Jeanne, and Igor replaces . didn't become a tropical storm until August 10th, and Bonnie became a Tropical storm on August 9th in 2004.
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ChrisS
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Loc: Lake Buena Vista, FL
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I am a new poster here (but an avid reader for the last two tropical seasons). First off, thanks to everyone here for the great coverage, comments and calm analysis. I enjoy having a trusted resource such as this (being a relative noob to tropical weather events).
I have been following some threads over at Weather Underground and I have to say the commentary there is all over the map with this season's forecasts. It seems quiet now but what is the consensus here regarding the latest wave off coast of Africa that some of the models are forecasting to develop quite aggressively in the next few days? I have not seen that discussion here and frankly, I trust this groups collective intelligence more than some of the other alarmist discussion groups on other sites. I am hoping the quiet lasts a little longer and the projection of 19 named systems is over-forecast. -Chris
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MikeC
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What's probably being overemphasized there is the long range models, this is the time of year you start to look much further east for development, but it's still a tad early for it. The African wave looks impressive now, but only really has a 30% chance to stay together once offshore, and if anything develops it would be much later. Long range models are just reflecting the normal potential for systems developing increasing into mid August, but it's usually just magnets for hype. In short, really reaching for something to watch. In short, if there were something else going on right now it would probably be mostly ignored.
In short, I don't expect the wave over Africa to do much, at least this one. If it persists over two-three days maybe. I don't expect much if anything this week, but things can change quickly.
Right now Central Atlantic Westward is the place to watch, and that grows further east into mid August. If any of the waves develop it wouldn't be anytime soon. The best course of action is to watch the convection persistence of an area over a 24 hour period or so, and if it stays mostly organized then it becomes worth watching, and then watch for trends. The area around 32W, if it were slightly further north would be such an area to watch for persistence. A surprising number of African waves fall apart after getting over water, but sometimes these reorganize much further west, but mostly they don't.
It's a good time to check on hurricane supplies though, because once it starts in August it may be pretty busy.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Since only one in every ten tropical waves will develop into a tropical cyclone (on average), here we tend to wait until a wave shows some signs of falling into that 10% category before getting into a discussion about it. The only model that I could find that develops a wave in the next week was the - and the Canadian Model is not the best model to use for this type of activity since its not really a tropical model (for that matter, neither is the ). Perhaps because the model was designed for better accuracy in temperate climates, it will often generate a spurious storm that never materializes. As I've mentioned before (probably far too many times), the model outputs are not the forecast, they are just occasionally useful guidance for developing a forecast.
Cheers,
ED
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WesnWylie
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It looks to me that the wave off the coast of Africa around 25*W; 10*N (as of 12Z), may be an area of interest as we get into the weekend. That chance for development is heavily dependent on the SAL to the north of it. If the wave manages to stay south of the SAL, I think it may have a decent chance to develop by the middle of next week. Other than that, observations and model trends don't show anything else of real concern in the next several days.
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