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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Tropical Depression #4
      #88582 - Sun Aug 01 2010 03:26 PM

A tropical cyclone appears to be developing about 1400NM to the east southeast of Barbados near 10.0N 35.7W at 01/18Z. Note that the storm is still in its developmental state but the overall structure is improving. The system is currently moving to the west at about 8 knots and movement to the west northwest is anticipated for the next few days. Pressure is estimated at 1007MB. The SST is 28C and windshear is light below 19N so additional development is likely for the next three or four days before increasing westerly shear impacts the system. Folks in the northern Caribbean Islands and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor the progress of this developing system.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 02 2010 10:35 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 91L [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88586 - Sun Aug 01 2010 07:08 PM

At 01/22Z the forward motion has slowed and the structure, under the influence of SAL to the northwest, is no longer improving. Looks like development is going to be a slow process. The two waves (90 & 91) are still interacting and have not merged - this yields a complex system that will impede development for awhile - and will continue a westward motion for awhile.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 91L Continues to Develop [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88591 - Mon Aug 02 2010 09:22 AM

At first glance, Invest 91L doesn’t look like too much this morning – even the wave behind it presents a greater convective coverage – however 91L does have a small convective core at roughly 12.5N 40.5W at 02/12Z. The movement over the past 24 hours has been 300 degrees (west northwest) however that motion was more of a constant adjustment of the center as the system lifted out of the ITCZ. Current motion appears to be more westerly at roughly 15 knots and movement to the west to west northwest over the next couple of days seems likely. To compensate for the westward motion, in the short term I suspect that the models will adjust a little to the left. The system still needs to organize around the small convective core – which will take some time, but classification as a Tropical Depression seems likely today.
ED


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 959
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Area of Interest - Invest 91L Continues to Develop [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #88592 - Mon Aug 02 2010 09:43 AM

Hi Ed:
I agree totally with your analysis. 91L seems to have separated enough from the ITCZ to begin an independent life, and it seems to be doing so nicely. I note good upper level outflow NW and N of the convection area you highlighted. Classification based on satellite presentation later today is not unlikely at all.

--------------------
doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Area of Interest - Tropical Depression #4 [Re: doug]
      #88593 - Mon Aug 02 2010 10:21 AM

Here is another interesting discussion on the models.
ED

HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Invest 91L will be upgraded to TD #4 at 11AM EDT.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Aug 02 2010 10:37 AM)


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