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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas
Long-Range Models
      #88689 - Thu Aug 05 2010 08:43 AM

i've been hearing that the long range models are picking up on 3 other named systems in the upcoming weeks. Is that true and what are the tentative dates and could they be big players in the gulf.

(Post moved to a more appropriate Forum. Note that at the bottom of the Main Page there are many links to model outputs that will let you check this out for yourself.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 05 2010 09:56 AM)

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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Long-Range Models [Re: Jasonch]
      #88691 - Thu Aug 05 2010 11:13 AM

Always take long range models with a large spoon of salt. Out Past 5 days there is just too much uncertainty as has been the case with Colin for example. Several long range models back late last week had Colin as a decent hurricane just off the coast of Miami at 192 hours. As you can see that was WAY off. For me, they seem to be useful for long term trends, just don't put too much stock in them past 100 hours. That's my non-expert opinion anyways. The experts here may have a different view....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Long-Range Models [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #88719 - Fri Aug 06 2010 12:16 PM

It's 120 hours; after that it's a crap shoot; however, in regards to synoptic features; it's pretty good out to about 240 hours. The folks who program these models and what is inputted into them is astounding.

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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