Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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5 PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
The National Hurricane Center issued it's last advisory on Tropical Depression 5, it will just be a rain maker along the northern gulf coast.
A couple of other areas are worth watching, although they may not hold together. Tropical wave with active convection and slightly better organization located near 13.5N 58.5W at 11/21Z is moving west at about 15 knots. A convective flareup located southwest of Invest 93L near 23N 60W at 11/21Z is moving to the west northwest.
6:30AM EDT Update 10 August 2010
Tropical Depression Five hasn't organized overnight, but may later today. Odds favor the system making landfall as a Tropical Storm in eastern Louisiana or Mississippi sometime overnight Thursday into Friday.
The system has pulled in quite a bit of dry air overnight and is even a bit weaker than yesterday currently, but can recover.
There is an outside chance that the system can strengthen beyond that, but unless it changes drastically today or tomorrow, it doesn't look like that will happen. If it does strengthen it would likely be just before landfall. Therefore those in the warning area will need to pay close attention to local media and officials. But, again, odds are It likely will be mostly a rain maker.
Also forward motion of the storm is forecast to slow down, perhaps dramatically, which could extend the system's time over the Gulf and perhaps landfall a bit east of that. If it slows down enough it may loop over land and wind up back over the gulf briefly.
If the track were to change it would more likely wind up more easterly than it is now.
The wave in the central Atlantic, (93L) still has a good chance to form, but has not yet, it would stay out to sea.
Another wave east of the Caribbean has a very low chance (10%) of developing in the short term, but will need to be watched if it persists.
8PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
Invest 94L has developed better structure and has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 5. The TD is forecast to move northwest with initial landfall projection into the Louisiana delta Thursday morning as a 40 knot Tropical Storm.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued as follows:
"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS."
Residents along the northern Gulf coast should monitor the progress and development of this system.
ED
7PM EDT Update 10 August 2010
The area in the Gulf is likely to become the 5th tropical depression of the season tonight, best track has renumbered it to 5, and advisories may begin soon at 8PM EDT 7PM CDT, at latest by 11PM EDT.
Those in the northern Gulf of Mexico will want to watch the system in the southeastern Gulf.
7AM EDT Update 10 August 2010
This morning, the area in the Central Atlantic (93L) is still looking like it may develop, but it just hasn't yet. It will stay out to sea.
The area in the southeastern Gulf, (94L) is something that may develop during the week, those along the northern central and northwestern Gulf Coast will want to watch, the good news is dry air to the northwest is keeping the system down and weaker for the moment. Most likely it will hit land as a Tropical Storm, but the further westward it makes it the more time it would have to strengthen.
If that happens, then a strengthening tropical storm/cat one hurricane could be approaching the coast. So those in the northern Gulf must keep a close watch on this system. The timing would be on Friday.
Odds favor somewhere in Louisiana as a tropical Storm, around 50-60mph winds, possibly stronger if the system reforms a bit westward.
Original Update
Lots of little sparks of potential but the Atlantic is just too hostile for anything to get organized. Upper level shear has relaxed considerably in the Gulf, the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic south of 20N, but low-level easterly shear is tearing apart tropical waves before they even leave the west coast of Africa.
Invest 94L off the southwest Florida coast near 26N 82.5W at 09/18Z and drifting to the west southwest. The system is poorly defined with convection displaced to the south. Only a modest chance for additional development, but because the area is close at hand it deserves some attention.
A very small feature is located in the central Caribbean Sea midway between Aruba and the Dominican Republic near 15N 70W at 09/22Z. The system has pulsating convection and is moving to the west northwest at 7 knots. Small systems are fragile and can get very strong or fall apart in a short period of time. The system remains in a favorable environment for development.
Invest 93L is in the central Atlantic near 23.7N 49.9W at 09/22Z and the system is moving southwest at about 5 knots. If it had developed it would have pulled off to the northwest, but the weak circulation has moved away from its limited convection well to the northeast of the center. The wave has encountered dry air and is very disorganized – if this system develops (and I’m not so sure that it will) its going to take quite awhile to do so.
Finally, a tropical wave southeast of the southern Cape Verde Islands is being consumed by the SAL. Lots of places to watch, but no immediate concerns.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2010 09:22 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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18z exploded off of LA, just before landfall with 94L... GFDL 18Z but that just doesn't seem likely at this moment... the big fly in forecast is the ULL of SE Florida. It appears that it will continue westnorthwest ward and be off LA in about 36-48hrs.... where 94L is at by then will determine how the system/low will do. One thing i see on the plus side for 94L is the slow movement in the SE GOM the next few days. The other is the very WARM GOM temps... its baking out there, and shouldn't take much to fire storms, but the shear will decide if the storms hold for the next few days. There is dry air over NE GOM, but that should fill in within a couple of day.
If we were tracking ULL's this year and last... we have a VERY active season... lol
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: NC
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I was thinking the same thing about the ULL's, just look at them lined up across the Atlantic!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
I just don't remember seeing the tropics get going when the atmosphere is as chaotic as it is now...93L is squeezed between 2 ULL's and is there any chance that 94L will ever completely seperate from that ULL over Fl.?
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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I'm looking at the 10/00Z package as we speak. Satellite imagery late this evening has a low developing on the old frontal boundary just to the SW of the current invest location. Atmosphere aloft is very light; however the fly in the ointment is the upper low to its east over the Bahamas and for the moment I don't agree with a movement into the NE GOM as discussions are saying, but as I just said I haven't looked at the package in detail and will comment shortly on this system in about an hour.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Early good morning to all...I don't believe the organization with 94L is tropical at this time. The upper low off the coast of Melbourne, FL is dropping shortwave energy from north to south and filling the area of subsidence with moisture aloft to the north of the system. Current satellite imagery as of 10/05Z has the system beginning to develop SW of the earlier location of the Invest center of circulation.
Per discussion there is the possibility in the short term of this system being a hybrid/subtropical system and I agree with this assessment has suppor from the upper level low will have a role in its development. This broad area of low pressure is not the same low that was near 27N 86W...it has dissipated as it moved south. This new area is located at 24N 84W and is sagging slowly south with steering currents currently aloft NNE to SSW.
Looking ahead at the upper level charts the upper level low to the system's east will ride along with the system to landfall which suggest we won't be dealing with an entirely tropical system. Initially the system will be a slow mover; perhaps near stationary for the first 24 to 36 hours and this will allow the ULL to phase with it aloft. 94L and the ULL are progged by the models to then move WNW across the GOM and a landfall on the upper TX/W LA coast late Thursday/early Friday this week.
Mid-Continental ridge remains over the Mid-South initially and retrogrades west to the 4 corners region with its axis extending east along the Mid-South and SE USA states with easterly flow aloft along the Gulf coast. There is another cutoff low extending from the progressive east coast long wave trough...inverting itself about 300 nm south of Bermuda and the Bermuda ridge east of it and not a player in the evolution of this system. Upper low continues to move north over TX into the central US and dissipating as it becomes elongated at this time.
courtesy of the Glossary:
A subtropical cyclone is a non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
There is a wiki on subtropical cyclones and it has excellent information about these types of storms; it can be found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subtropical_cyclone
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Dry air continues to be our savior in regards to development of 94L. Its a little disconcerting, IMO, to see everything visible in the satellite loops rotating around 94L. The bigger belt of dry air over LA looks like it's being shoved away from 94L by the rotation, but the smaller area of dry air near the approx CoC looks to be entraining itself into the low pressure area. Don't get me wrong, I like the rain we're getting from this thing, but the size of system could make it a sheer mess if it forms into something significant, if from nothing than the flooding threat alone.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The dry air looks to be moving off to the NW while the ULL near Cape Canaveral is now wrapping moisture around it. Winds are above normal from the SE and SSE here in West Central FL today. Based on the sat/radar presentation and general conditions, I'd say that 94L is spinning up today and tomorrow. Looks more like an Alabama/Mississippi landfall may be more of a probability to me. Also, the southern part of the wave that spawned 93L bears watching as it approaches the windward islands.
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Michael
PWS
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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I have a feeling the will up the chance for development to 70% or 80% @ the 2:00 p.m. EDT update. 94L is certainly a large system in terms of how wide its "banding" extends. I have a feeling if the system continues organizing through the rest of the day, we will have tropical depression by tonight. I personally think a Louisiana landfall appears most likely at this time, but I could be wrong.
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hogrunr
Weather Guru
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Loc: Spring, TX
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Wow...hadn't seen the wave approaching the Windward Islands...it looks pretty good. It will be interesting to see if the marks it code anything at the 2pm EDT update.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON is nearly halfway to the INVEST point. Should be there within the hour. They adjusted the inbound leg to fly from SE Louisiana to 94L. Probably to gather upper air data, as most models are forecasting a track toward the Mouth of the Mississippi River and the Macondo Oil Spill site.
BP has just announced a STOP Drilling at the Macondo site. US Coast Guard requested the STOP and all vessels to port. This information is from .
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 10 2010 05:15 PM)
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RobM
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Loc: Ocean Springs, MS
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The Key West radar looks more and more defined with its COC and the developing bands around it. The radar images have burned me before but the latest run seems to substantiate the appearance of development. I'm beginning to wonder how the new timing protocals for warnings are going to work since the storm won't be developing until just before landfall.
Edited by RobM (Tue Aug 10 2010 05:19 PM)
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WeatherNut
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I'm also beginning to see some banding wrapping around the north side. The ULL is bypassing it to the north moving on a westerly direction. The danger with this system is that if it gets organized it could ramp up quickly (thats IF not for sure). Conditions are forecast to only get more conducive. It definitely looks more tropical than yesterday
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The area to the east of the leeward Islands is definitely becoming better organized. In the last couple of frames there looks to be some convection firing around what looks to be the center of the cyclonic turning. Might be something to watch, but so far this season things like this seem to have a hard time persisting.
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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WesnWylie
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They've upped it to 70% and said that depending on what the RECON finds watches and/or warnings could be issued as early as this afternoon.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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last recon data i have put them less then 25 miles from 94L coming in from NW at about 1ft above surface... SMFR data shows winds on NW side of about 20-25mph at surface... flight level winds in the 20kts range... one interesting thing i'm seeing is at the air temp is about the upper 70's at 1kft, but the dewpoint is around 50F at a 1kt!
PS: The ULL is much further to the north then i thought it would be... so this appears now it will help return moisture over 94L in the coming hours and would help the outflow on the northern side of 94L... AKA, an aid in development this time
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Recon made a pass on a circulation at....
Time: 17:51:00Z
Coordinates: 25.8167N 83.7833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 976.0 mb (~ 28.82 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 293 meters (~ 961 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press: 1009.2 mb (~ 29.80 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 277° at 2 knots (From the W at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: 24.4°C (~ 75.9°F)
Dew Pt: 10.8°C (~ 51.4°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
winds on the outbound are westerly and southerly and stronger... so it appears this would be the location of 94L... waiting on some more data... not too sure about being fully tropical?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Aug 10 2010 06:08 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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ASCAT got an excellent look at the system earlier today and the CoC was located near 25N 84W with 15 winds in all quadrants except south where winds were near 25 knots in convective activity.
Water vapor satellite imagery has a considerable area of subsidence and dry air in advance of the ULL currently near the east coast of FL. Models continue to insist it will move west and west-northwest and poses the question of whether the system will be tropical or subtropical.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE
SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
FORMING...AND IF SO...
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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A little dry air and subsidence has dampened convection near the probable center this afternoon, but banding is evident away from the center. If convection re-fires near the center, a TD will probably be declared. That is a low dew point at 1kFT, so this may not be entirely tropical yet. It does look like it is either stationary or drifting northward on both sat pics and radar, though.
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Michael
PWS
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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The outflow you're observing to the northeast is the ULL currently at the Central FL east coast. I grant you it appears obscured at best but it is the ULL and all models have it travelling over the top of 94L. You may have text bulletins saying conditions are not ideal despite low shear and warm water. This system was originally part of an old frontal boundary and observing water vapor imagery there are shortwaves rotation cyclonically around the upper low and as you noted there is considerable subsidence and dry air that continues to be pushed south and southwest and if models verify 94L is likely to impaired by entraining this air into it. Tropical, Subtropical I don't concern myself with except they do technically differ in regards to how they are supported and the wind field between the two differs. The winds aloft are from NNE to SSW and at first glance it appears the two are linked; for the moment they are not; however text bulletins I've read today are indicating difluence aloft...What that is...are winds that diverge..that is like a river delta they spread out. Aloft you want difluence to enhance convective activity; at the surface you want the opposite; confluence...winds and moisture coming together into one focal point...the CoC. You have a nice day! Take care!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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