Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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UPDATE: TD7 now Tropical Storm Earl as of 25/21Z.
UPDATE: Invest 96L now Tropical Depression Seven as of 25/1234Z.
Invest 96L was located off the west coast of Africa near 11.5N 21.0W at 24/03Z moving to the west southwest at 12 knots with a low pressure of 1006MB. SSTs in the area are at 28C. Because of southwest to westerly shear over the system, development, if any, may be slow for a couple of days, but improve by Thursday as the shear relaxes and the system continues to move to the west southwest to west. After the system pulls above the , it could encounter areas of slightly cooler SSTs due to upwelling as a result of Danielle's earlier passage through the area when Danielle was intensifying into a strong system.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 25 2010 09:17 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 96L now located at 13.5N 25.8W at 24/21Z moving west at 8 knots. Wind was at 30 knots but is now about 20 knots as it has entrained another outburst of SAL that prevented it from developing into a Tropical Depression today. System still has good structure and can still re-energize up to TD status at almost anytime.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Last night Invest 96L developed excellent cyclonic structure and the system was upgraded by to Tropical Depression Seven at 25/1234Z. bulletins will begin at 15Z (11AM EDT). At 25/12Z TD7 was located about 350 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 14.2N 30.3W with sustained winds of 30 knots and a central pressure of 1007MB. The depression was moving to the west at 20 knots and a track to the west to west northwest is expected for the next few days at about the same forward speed. TD7 should continue to intensify today and reach tropical storm strength tonight. An area of windshear near 20N 40W will probably slow the intensification process on Thursday, but beyond that timeframe conditions are quite favorable for additional intensification and the tropical cyclone should attain hurricane strength by Friday evening or Saturday morning. The next name on the list this year is Earl.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The intensification process for TS Earl is not going to be as aggressive as previously indicated. Dry Saharan air has enveloped the cyclone and has been drawn into the system from the south and southeast. The result has been a disruption of the organizational process over the past 12 hours. The SAL still remains to the west and north of the system so intensification over the next day or two could be a slow process. With a slower intensification, the tropical storm should track to the west to west northwest for a longer period of time.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Earl is showing some good signs of recovery with a significant convective burst this evening. The convective development appears to be just on the northern edge of the center position which was 15.6N 39.6W at 27/00Z. That location is about 20 miles north of where Danielle was when she was a 60kt tropical storm. Note that the SAL north and west of that area is slowly subsiding.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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There is a definite interaction between Danielle and Earl tonight, with the strong outflow from Danielle apparently reinforcing the ridge over Earl and nudging him a little south of due west, but without recon sampling of the environment to the north of Earl its strictly an educated guess based on upper cloud motion. Danielle is moving slowly to the north northwest while Earl is moving at a fast pace to the west. Danielle may not pull out fast enough to create a wake trough to fully capture Earl. With a ridge over Earl until about 60W, its going to be a tight call for the northern Leewards and perhaps even the central islands.
ED
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