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Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Hurricane Watches up Along North Carolina Coast
      #89224 - Mon Aug 30 2010 05:56 PM

Update - 12AM EDT, 01 September 2010
No significant changes with the 01/03Z bulletins so really not too much to say. Earl continues to move toward the northwest with an eventual turn to the north and north northeast - passing just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the very early hours of Friday morning and then offshore from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in the early hours of Saturday morning on his way to Nova Scotia (as a Cat I hurricane at that time). Watches are up for the eastern coast of North Carolina, and folks north of that area should closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane.

Fiona maintains as a minimal Tropical Storm - moving west northwest with a more northwest and northerly turn expected in the next couple of days. Little change in intensity is anticipated, however, because Fiona will pass close to (or through) the northern Leeward Islands, the following Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS"

Fiona will probably only survive for another two or three days before windshear dissipates the weak cyclone.

Invest 98L continues to maintain good structure in the far eastern Atlantic and the convective activity is increasing. The system still has to struggle with dry air for the next couple of days, but after that the conditions for additional development should improve.
ED

5:00 PM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Watches are up Along North Carolina as the outer banks are in the cone of uncertainty. Odds along with most model guidance keeps Earl's center offshore, but close.

Those in the hurricane watch area should pay attention to local officials and media.

Our friend Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack.com is located in Wilmington, NC and will have updates from there.

More to come later...

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Flhurricane Recording of French Antilles radar for FIona Approach
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes



Earl Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Earl
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Earl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Fiona Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fiona
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fiona

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


98L Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



5:30 AM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Earl is on the move toward the west northwest and forecast to toward more northwest. On Earl's current track it comes near enough to cause tropical storm force winds from the Carolinas and parts of Cape cod,before moving toward Novia Scotia in Canada. The forecast is for it to stay offshore, but any deviation to the west would bring it inland.

The good news this morning is that it is looking more likely that it will stay offshore since a more northward component is apparent on satellite, but not enough to let guard down. Tropical Storm watches may go up for parts of the Carolinas later today.

However, on the other hand, the fast movement of Fiona behind it may ultimately be enough to nudge Earl more westward. Which is the bad news of the morning (See the image below) Of course it it gets under to the south enough it could "squeeze" it more northward as well.




Tropical Storm Fiona is under conditions that will likely keep it weak or dissipate it, and the current track keeps it quite well out to sea. Fiona is moving too quickly to organize and ramming itself into the influence of Earl, which will likely pull it northward and out to sea.

Odds currently are that Fiona will stay out to sea, but it will still have to be watched until this is certain.

Beyond Fiona, 98L is now being tracked in the East Atlantic, odds are not much will happen with this one, but it has a 10% chance for development. Another wave, currently over Africa, likely has a better chance to develop once over water than 98L does. There are tropical storm Watches up for the Northern Leewards, as they are in the cone. Fiona continues to travel fairly quickly.

Tee last advisory on Danielle was issued at 11 last night.

List of all state/local Emergency management offices

Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
St. Maarten Webcam - flhurricane recording of this cam

St. Maarten Radar

5:45 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane, and has a chance to strengthen some more before it reaches conditions less favorable for development.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for some of the islands west of there.

Earl is expected to move more northwesterly tomorrow and may get close to the Carolinas before moving more out to sea. However, the cone past 3 days tends to have large errors, so those in the Carolinas northward need to pay very close attention to this system. If Earl nears North Carolina it would be on Friday. Odds favor the system staying offshore of the US coastline, but it still would be close enough to possibly cause windy conditions along the coastline of the Carolinas.




Fiona has developed east of there, and odds are that it will stay out to sea, however the Leewards are in the cone, and will want to watch it. A lot of the forward motion depends on how strong or weak the system remains and when the turn begins. Fiona is moving briskly to the west at 24mph, and is forecast to be at its nearest to the Leewards Wednesday afternoon or evening. There are currently no watches or warnings associated with Fiona, but may later if it appears to impact the islands.

Beyond that, a lot depends on where Earl goes. If Earl moves out quicker, it will give Fiona more of a chance to let the ridge build up and move more west, if it stays slow, it may force Fiona to move out to sea sooner. In short, both systems will need to be watched closely.

And that's not all, another wave off Africa has a chance to develop down the road.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 01 2010 12:15 AM)


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Raymond
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
Wow! Central pressure down to 935 hPa! [Re: MikeC]
      #89228 - Mon Aug 30 2010 07:28 PM

Looks like Earl will become a cat. 5 relatively soon!

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: MikeC]
      #89229 - Mon Aug 30 2010 07:39 PM

Latest pressure on Earl is down to 939mb...

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: WeatherNut]
      #89230 - Mon Aug 30 2010 07:58 PM

Models a few days ago offered the solution that Earl would suck Fiona into his circulation ... everyone was skeptical. Wondering now if that is possible or he will just keep Fiona at bay a small storm.

Dramatic rapid intensification today... Fiona is beginning to look a lot closer than I would think she should be.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: LoisCane]
      #89232 - Mon Aug 30 2010 09:02 PM

It's fairly likely tomorrow we'll begin to see watches up on the east coast. Especially if Earl picks up more forward speed.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: MikeC]
      #89233 - Mon Aug 30 2010 09:56 PM

Earl went from a TS to a CAT4 hurricane in 27 hours.This just shows us once again how fast these storms can gain strength.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: MikeC]
      #89234 - Mon Aug 30 2010 09:59 PM

We can't end the day without another beauty shot of Earl.

Taken around 11am today:



Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2010242-0830/Earl.A2010242.1500.2km.jpg

There was a more recent picture taken around 3pm, but it caught the storm almost edge on: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?A102421805


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #89235 - Mon Aug 30 2010 10:14 PM Attachment (263 downloads)

Not wanting to get to caught up in model fluctuations I am just wondering why the 18Z GFDL run at the cyclogenesis potential site is not mating up with Skeetobite GFDL 18 Z and SFWMD GFDL 18 Z. See attached.
Trust the cone.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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lordvector
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #89236 - Mon Aug 30 2010 10:24 PM

Quote:

Earl went from a TS to a CAT4 hurricane in 27 hours.This just shows us once again how fast these storms can gain strength.




I calculate 33 hours from TS @ 8am yesterday to CAT4 @ 5pm today.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: craigm]
      #89237 - Mon Aug 30 2010 10:28 PM

Quote:

18Z GFDL run at the cyclogenesis potential site is not mating up with Skeetobite GFDL 18 Z




The model plot you are looking at is Fiona's, not Earl's. Earl's does match up.

I was noticing that yesterday with 97L not matching up with Earl's plot with the same strong westward shift. Perhaps a Met that knows the models better than I can help explain why the discrepancy between Earl's track on the the 07L (Earl) and 08L (Fiona) model runs from GFDL.

Reference model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: Random Chaos]
      #89238 - Mon Aug 30 2010 10:39 PM Attachment (201 downloads)

RC-- You are absolutely right I was looking at 08 not 07. Iv'e attached the correct file although I'm still not sure why 08 18Z run is showing Earl that far west unless there is just stray data.

Edited by craigm (Mon Aug 30 2010 10:42 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: craigm]
      #89239 - Mon Aug 30 2010 11:02 PM

If your question is 'Why does the track for Earl look different when I look at the GFDL output for Fiona?', then
I think that the answer you are seeking is in the Hurricane Ask/Tell Forum in a thread that is titled: TS Earl Model Output Solutions. If thats not where you were heading then help me out by clarifying what is confusing.
Cheers,
ED


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89243 - Tue Aug 31 2010 07:57 AM

These two images are nearly 6 hours apart. At first glance the motion appears to be NW or NNW.
Rough calculation of the radar center movement is toward 318 degrees, NW at 12.5 mph. Please refer to Official NHC Advisories for planning and safety purposes.





Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 31 2010 08:20 AM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Earl and Fiona [Re: danielw]
      #89244 - Tue Aug 31 2010 08:39 AM

Latest recon pass shows pressure up 4mb from late last night. However, while San Juan radar still shows the 16NM eyewall somewhat intact, recon reported the eye size at 30NM, indicating the ERC is well underway. IR shows the eye now occluded, likely a result of the ERC. Probably another 6 hours for the ERC cycle to wrap up and the storm to start strengthening again. NHC reported that it would be entering less hospitable conditions in around 12-24 hours, so it looks like the ERC will finish fast enough to be done prior to those conditions, which is good for the hurricane (and not so good for those of us not liking the track of the hurricane).

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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: MikeC]
      #89248 - Tue Aug 31 2010 11:11 AM

forming over the Northern Bahamas. I'm watching Fiona racing up Earl's "backside". Very interesting scenario here.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

If the cutoff low sinks further South, could it help turn Earl away for the CONUS and then turn it more back towards the West and NC?

Or is the ULL not really a factor in how Earl tracks, and everything is dependant on the high pressure ridge and the trough over the continent?

Right now it appears Earl is hanging on to his 135 cat 4 winds, but he doesn't look nearly as impressive as he did yesterday when cat 5 strength was a real possibility. The NHC is forecasting a little strengtheing later but not today depending on the current ERC and its end result.

Early has been an interesting storm to follow.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Posts: 133
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Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: stormtiger]
      #89250 - Tue Aug 31 2010 11:40 AM

Not sure if I am buying into Fiona turning like they are saying looks to be racing just north of west. With it staying fairly weak I question it going more poleward? I lean a little more towards the Bam models here...

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
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Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: stormtiger]
      #89251 - Tue Aug 31 2010 11:41 AM

For the time being, lets also look @ Fiona. She has been hit by 2 things 1 Dry Air..but really more importantly is her speed @ 23-25mph during the past 2-3 days. Same thing started with Earl... once he slowed down to 18mph (not much of a slowdown) he quickly became a hurricane.
Now with that said, I don't expect Fiona to become a hurricane in the next 24-36hrs...but Fiona over the next 12-36hrs will determine so much with her.
Lets look at things. Models jump the gun too much and don't have a strong enough ridging so far this year over the tropical atlantic.. This is why Earl kept going more W and didn't go north of 20N until 66.5W (about). Fiona is suppose to turn more NW today and NNW near 60W by Weds morning. The WV imagery shows that Earl is actually bringing up the heights to his east on the ridge. Also the ridge moves quickly W in the next 48-60hrs and lies pretty much along 22N from 70W out to Bermuda. This causes Earl to move N and then NE around it but where will Fiona be? Models say somewhere around 25N and 65W in 60hrs. I really can't grasp that cause of Fiona slowing down some as she approaches 60W and I feel 16.8N and moving more WNW later this evening and tonight...then a more NW path towards U.S. British Islands and even maybe Puerto Rico Weds afternoon and night. This is cause the models have been too weak this year with the ridging and wanting to pull systems around the ridge too quickly.
It be interesting also on if she strengthens some tonight. Shear will pick up on Weds in the wake of Earl, but I don't think the shear maps are telling the story correctly also in the near term.
So thing is.. next 12-36hrs will be key. When will Fiona turn NW or even NNW (if the models do have it correctly) or will Fiona move more WNW tonight and not turn NW until sometime on Weds or Weds night? Also what will the shear be from Earl? The short term in path,speed, shear zone, and strength will be important over this time frame.


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Wingman51
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 126
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: stormtiger]
      #89254 - Tue Aug 31 2010 12:49 PM

In response to your analysis - the latest NGP run reflects on Fiona stalling and looping off the FL Coast at 6 and 7 days out. This seems to be a direct result of Earl "cleaning" things out and leaving little in his path to steer Fiona. Thoughts?

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: Wingman51]
      #89255 - Tue Aug 31 2010 12:55 PM

URNT12 KNHC 311535
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072010
A. 31/15:22:10Z
B. 21 deg 09 min N
067 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2591 m
D. 80 kt
E. 121 deg 23 nm
F. 201 deg 104 kt
G. 121 deg 35 nm
H. 941 mb
I. 12 C / 3051 m
J. 21 C / 3028 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF309 0607A EARL OB 20
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 15:31:10Z


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: I'm watching Earl and what appears to be a cutoff low [Re: Wingman51]
      #89256 - Tue Aug 31 2010 12:56 PM

for those intrested... you should see these pics from the Global Hawk on Frank. This was a test flight and expect to see the Hawk fly over Earl later this week!

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/spotlight/NOAA-NASA%20Global%20Hawk.pdf

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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