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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 45 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Indiatlantic Florida 28.12N 80.58W
Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89455 - Wed Sep 08 2010 11:20 AM

I wonder if Igor will follow the same paths as the other storms or get a little closer to land ?

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 08 2010 02:58 PM)


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Jasonch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Mon
Posts: 42
Loc: Texas 30.36N 94.18W
Re: Tropical Storm Igor Forms in Eastern Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89462 - Wed Sep 08 2010 02:19 PM

if it goes north of the islands do you think it will recurve.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum - long range stuff goes here.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Sep 08 2010 03:32 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Igor Forecast Lounge
      #89463 - Wed Sep 08 2010 02:55 PM

Ay 08/15Z, NHC upgraded Invest 91L to Tropical Storm Igor located south of the Cape Verde Islands - close enough to the islands that a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for some of the CV islands. Igor is expected to move west to west northwest over the next few days and eventually attain hurricane strength.

This is the place to post your best guess as to what Igor will become and where it will go in the long term.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89503 - Sun Sep 12 2010 02:11 PM

Well the 12/12Z GGEM Model run is certainly interesting - it has Igor missing the weakness in the ridge.

Raleigh 12Z GGEM Model Loop

ED


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89504 - Sun Sep 12 2010 02:40 PM

I'm not familiar with this model...what is its track record? What track implications are there for his rapid intensification today?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Art in Largo
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89507 - Sun Sep 12 2010 03:21 PM

Gee Igor has to be watched closely for us here in florida huh

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida 29.55N 81.20W
Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Art in Largo]
      #89508 - Sun Sep 12 2010 04:03 PM

Looking at the water vapor, it appears to me that Igor should start moving more west-northwest to northwest around 20N, 55W. I think Igor takes a NW turn do to the second trough, then as a ridge builds, Igor may steer WNW south of Bermuda. After that, It's up in the air what else could happen. Another trough may recurve it, that being the best scenario to look at right now, or a weak trough lifts it north along the East Coast.

The forecast for Igor believe it or not is actually a VERY complicated forecast. The two troughs appear to me to be too far north to really recurve it, the third one which is coming out of Canada in a few days is the one that is supposed to do it all the way. The question is when and where. I believe Igor will move south of Bermuda, then start turning north from there. Also where will the high be? If the high shifts east and strengthens, Igor will become a problem for the southeast. I'm really skeptical of it recurving "harmlessly" out to sea at this time. I need a few more days to see how far west Igor can make it before the turn occurs. This is a forecast of mine and is posted in the forecast lounge.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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CharlestonNative
Registered User


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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: allan]
      #89514 - Sun Sep 12 2010 06:56 PM

How will TD#12 affect Igor?

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CharlestonNative
Registered User


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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #89522 - Mon Sep 13 2010 12:23 PM

According to the forecast maps at 2pm Friday both Igor and TD#12 seem to be catching up with each other and paralelling. What effect will this have on Igor?

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: CharlestonNative]
      #89524 - Mon Sep 13 2010 01:23 PM

No effect on Igor being the much stronger system. I'd expect Julia to be sheared by Igor's outflow much like Fiona was by Earl.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 17/10/6


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
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Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: allan]
      #89529 - Mon Sep 13 2010 05:47 PM

Checking out the 200-700mb steering layer it seemed the ridging that was NW of Igor was weakening thus allowing a direction change. Now looking at an update of the steering layer there is again ridging building NW of Igor. I dont see a change in direction today. Neither of these troughs are as strong or far south as the ones that have re-curved Danielle, Earl, or Fiona. Will be interesting to see since most models have been predicting an imminent wnw turn that is still not happening. Igors forward speed has slowed a bit but with the passing of the first trough it should move along again

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Igor Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #89533 - Tue Sep 14 2010 02:35 AM

NHC must be going a little crazy now.Igor should have turned more NW by now.At 11pm it is still going due west.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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