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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89717 - Mon Sep 27 2010 03:34 PM

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (190°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 76.8 F
Water Temperature: 85.1 F


Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (141°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 78.1 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F

Station LCIY2 Little Cayman Research Centre, Cayman Islands
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 19.699N 80.061W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 15.0 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.5 F


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89719 - Mon Sep 27 2010 04:34 PM

think you folks might like seeing this...

Map of flight path:
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pred...light_track.png

Loop of : GV - forward_camera Time range: 2010/09/27 12:01 - 2010/09/27 19:38 UTC
Loop of GV forward camera from 1201Z to 1938Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 27 2010 05:52 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89720 - Mon Sep 27 2010 04:37 PM

Something is wrong with your loop link.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MichaelA]
      #89721 - Mon Sep 27 2010 08:31 PM

Click on the little "movie camera" icon on the right panel...

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #89722 - Mon Sep 27 2010 09:25 PM

Looks as though this system is very slow to evolve even more then I thought it would by now, Theres a serious lack in convective organization and very hard to find a low pressure center anywhere as it looks quite broad right now. I would believe that by tomorrow there will be something just south of western Cuba moving north-northeast probably still not very organized given the increasing amount of shear it will encounter in the straits. My best guess a tropical storm until reaching Floirda near Naples/Monroe mainland area becoming subtropical strom crossing Floirda as it rides the front northeast. Not sure about the GFDL strength Cat 1 or even 2 offshore Floirda east coast looks a little much but will need to be watched.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 845
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #89725 - Tue Sep 28 2010 08:34 AM

Kept getting 404 errors before. Working this AM.

--------------------
Michael
2016: 13/9/4
2016 Actual: 15/7/3


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89727 - Tue Sep 28 2010 09:51 AM

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NW CARIBBEAN LOW

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
28/1215 UTC 20.2N 82.8W 020deg NNE at /09kts 9.4 IN 8.0 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.0 IN 0.1 TO 1.1 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.5 TO 2.4 IN 0.9 TO 4.1 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.5 TO 1.7 IN 4.0 TO 6.5 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.4 IN 6.5 TO 8.0 IN


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89728 - Tue Sep 28 2010 09:52 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND
82W...FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS TO THE COASTAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
THE ISTHMUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP
LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 16??? [Re: danielw]
      #89730 - Tue Sep 28 2010 10:11 AM

NHC just issued the following guidance with a TD 16 Heading. Possible upgrade to TD status shortly.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200 100930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 82.8W 21.2N 83.0W 22.1N 82.8W 23.6N 81.4W
BAMD 20.2N 82.8W 21.5N 82.5W 23.6N 81.9W 26.6N 81.1W
BAMM 20.2N 82.8W 21.3N 82.9W 22.4N 82.6W 24.3N 81.4W
LBAR 20.2N 82.8W 22.1N 82.4W 25.1N 82.1W 29.4N 81.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 49KTS

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 28 2010 10:13 AM)


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