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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
West Caribbean Disturbance
      #89629 - Wed Sep 22 2010 07:26 AM

8:30AM EDT Monday, 27 September 2010

There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, as the last advisories were issued on Matthew and Lisa yesterday.

The area in the West Caribbean (in particular an area forming southeast of Cancun) will need to be monitored by those in the western Caribbean and Florida, but looks mostly like a very heavy rain maker. It really depends on how organized it gets before moving out and interacting with the cold front approaching it'll likely become a sheared system with most of the energy spread eastward. This is still not an invest and in a very complex pattern it is still too soon to say much beyond that.

The area has not yet been designated as an official "Invest" area, so the usual model plot suites are not currently available. Global models (like GFS, Euro) will provide some. It's likely that it will become an area later today.

West Caribbean IR/Rainbow Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


3:15PM EDT Sunday, 26 September 2010

An area of disturbed weather in the western caribbean, left from the wake of Matthew has a chance to form this week, and may be the system that some models were depicting a few days ago as possibly affecting Florida late this week.

There currently is a 10% chance for development within the next few days. IT currently is not being tracked as an invest area, but may tomorrow. This is an area that could give us quite a bit of rain in Florida, and may be one of several for October.

More to come on these systems later. See The forecast lounge for informal discussion of the system.

The last advisory on Matthew was issued at 11 AM This morning. Lisa is nearing it's end as well.


Matthew Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Matthew


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Matthew (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Matthew

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Matthew
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Matthew -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Lisa Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Lisa


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Lisa (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Lisa

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Lisa
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Lisa -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


12:10PM EDT Saturday, 25 September 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew is briefly over water again before another landfall in Belize, the center moved a bit further north than expected overnight. The official forecast still takes it inland to mostly rain itself out and slow down, but the storm still is moving at a fairly brisk pace.



11:00AM EDT Friday, 24 September 2010
The new forecast from the National Hurricane Center takes Matthew inland quickly, never getting to Hurricane Strength and then falling apart over the Yucatan, and raining itself out. Based on the fast Westward motion this morning, this is quickly becoming the most likely scenario.

7:40AM EDT Friday, 24 September 2010 :?: :?:

Anyone who says they know where Matthew is going long term is probably lying. This system is entering into a very complex pattern, and lack of steering currents makes it worse. The most probable outcome now is that it clips the Nicaragua/Honduran coastlines as a hurricane, then makes landfall as a hurricane and then basically stops as the steering currents basically disappear, and dumps a tremendous amount of probably flooding rains along Belize and the Yucatan.

After this, it just gets nearly impossible to make sense of and is completely lounge territory. But I'll attempt to, the systtem stays around the Yucatan, may slip into the Bay of Campeche or back into the Western Caribbean, but will basically meander around until something kicks it out, or rains itself out over land. Another possible system in the Caribbean develops which keeps it mixed up even more, and may be actually Matthew, and then turns it more northeastward toward southwest Florida.



The models have been changing wildly between each run for the past few days, so confidence for past 3 days or so is extremely low. The best guess is the NHC's current forecast track. The NHC's track is a split between the model camps (One being more west, the other moving it more northeast toward western Cuba/Florida)

Only slightly more likely is the rain out over the Yucatan as moving in and out, or bouncing off Belize and northeast.

Those in Belize and the Yucatan will want to watch this system very Close, and possibly find themselves in a long period of incredible rainfall. Those in the hurricane Warning Area will want to prepare for a hurricane. Those elsewhere in the Eastern Gulf will just want to keep watch on it to see where Matthew goes (or doesn't go) over the week.



4:40PM EDT 23 September 2010
TD#15 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew.

2PM EDT 23 September 2010
Tropical Depression Fifteen forms in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Warnings up for Nicaragua and Honduras.

The current forecast track takes it over coastal Honduras and forms into a hurricane off of Belize. It then landfalls in Belize and begins to curve more northeast.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


7AM EDT 23 September 2010

Low confidence is probably something you will hear a lot with the wave in the Caribbean. It's usually not a good idea to hype or conjecture too much about storms that have not developed, and this one in particular.

The wave (95L) is slowly organizing and still looks most likely to form Friday or Saturday. Nicaragua and Honduras need to watch because they will be the ones likely to see the first effects from the storm.

Where the confusion lies is partly due to an upper level low that is cut off, which complicates the track. Some of the global models turn it north and northeast (toward Florida), but differ on how far west (or inland) it gets into Central America. There is a good chance that it will be over land first, and then meander a bit before turning generally north. To say it will affect Florida is impossible right now other than to say it's worth watching for the eastern Gulf, but it does not deserve any hype at the moment.

Depending exactly on the conditions ahead, and if it goes over land or not will determine what type of system, and at what strength it is.

Really not much has changed since yesterday, those in Honduras and Nicaragua need to watch the system closely, and Central America and the Yucatan will likely want to watch it as well. Those in the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico will want to check back in a few days to see what track becomes more likely.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Lisa is meandering in the Eastern Atlantic and probably will be around for quite a while, odds keep it out to sea the entire time.

The last advisory on Igor was issued Yesterday and is no longer being tracked. Igor was fairly strong in Newfoundland.

The wave in the eastern Caribbean (95L) continues to be the one to watch into next week. Odds favor the system getting close or moving into Nicaragua/Honduras (may or may not be a full storm by then) and possibly curving northward potentially putting Central and Eastern Gulf coasts at risk.

Likelihood of it forming into a hurricane is fairly high, it's questionable if it can do that before Honduras/Nicaragua though, or after. Depends on the next few days. If it forms, the most likely time it would form is Friday or Saturday. If things persist more, it could be sooner than that.



The huge uncertainty right now is if and when a turn to the north happens before it gets into the heart of Central America or the Yucatan. If it does not, the risk to the Gulf increase, if it does, then it will mean tremendous amounts of rainfall for Central America.

Those in Honduras and Nicaragua will want to keep a close watch on the system, and those in the Yucatan, and Central Eastern Gulf will want to watch for trends to see what eventually occurs with this.

As the wave has not yet developed into a tropical system, things can change wildly, and models (Especially intensity models) are not all that reliable until it does. Even when it does you have to see the trends to find any model biases that may exist.

Long range discussion can be found in the Forecast Lounge.



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danielwAdministrator
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The Caribbean Wave [Re: MikeC]
      #89632 - Wed Sep 22 2010 09:40 AM

Bouys in the Eastern Caribbean are reporting wind speeds near 25 kts and wind gusts above tropical storm force this morning.

Buoy 42059 Max Winds for the past hour
9:30 am E ( 97 deg ) 29.9 kts sustained
9:24 am E ( 100 deg ) 42.7 kts peak gust
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

Bouy 42060 Eastern Caribbean Buoy
9:30 am ENE ( 66 deg ) 23.7 kts
9:22 am ENE ( 60 deg ) 29.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 22 2010 09:45 AM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: The Caribbean Wave [Re: danielw]
      #89645 - Thu Sep 23 2010 08:36 AM

Though very early yet, first a.m. satellite does not show too much has changed overnight. Convection appears to have ramped up but appears fairly linnear for the most part. Nice anticyclone still to 95L's west would seem to provide a more conducive environment to develop perhaps tomorrow or more likely on Saturday.

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Rasvar
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95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: MikeC]
      #89646 - Thu Sep 23 2010 10:41 AM

It is still pretty unorganized but in the last few frames of the recent loops, it does appear that some rotation of the system is starting. I don't think there is any closed circulation yet. Maybe in another 12 to 24 hours this will be an actual system. I am looking forward to getting some better data into the models on this system. It seems to be a real tossup as to what is going to happen with this system.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: Rasvar]
      #89650 - Thu Sep 23 2010 11:18 AM

Based on the last few frames, ending at 1415Z
I would think that it meets TD criteria on the satellite photos. Based on curvature and increase in convection.
I'll have to check the surface winds.

Latest Visible below:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT2/vis0.gif



Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2010 11:31 AM)


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M.A.
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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: danielw]
      #89653 - Thu Sep 23 2010 11:32 AM

I agree Daniel. From the looks of the latest visible sat, you can clearly see a rotation and convection is building. I would be suprised if it isn't upgraded before the 5pm TWO. Bouy 42057 currently has sustained ESE winds of 25.3 knts.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: M.A.]
      #89654 - Thu Sep 23 2010 11:51 AM

Recon found a closed center, and put out a vortex message, so it looks like it'll be at least a depression soon.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: MikeC]
      #89657 - Thu Sep 23 2010 12:43 PM

I see some flight level winds that could/ should equate to a surface wind of Tropical Storm force criteria. It might be a stretch, but it wouldn't be the first storm that went straight to TS this year.

13.8N/ 75.6W for center.

Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2010 12:45 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: danielw]
      #89659 - Thu Sep 23 2010 01:39 PM

Pkg should be out soon for TD!

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE National Hurricane Center WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT 2 PM EDT TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Re: 95L maybe starting to get circulation [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89660 - Thu Sep 23 2010 02:01 PM

Tropical depression 15 is likely to be Matthew later today or tonight. Currently track is towards the northern coast of Nicaragua and then up the coast of Belize and Yucatan. Iam sure there will be plenty of shifts with this storm with respects to the track as models are not in good agreement on this one. Looks like its going to slow down in about 24 hours and remain moving slow through 120 hrs. Almost no shear and extremely warm waters in the Caribbean. This needs to be watched closely. GFS has been the most consistent so far to some extent.

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danielwAdministrator
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TS Matthew [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89664 - Thu Sep 23 2010 05:34 PM

WTNT45 KNHC 232051 (4:51pm EDT)
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
CYCLONE FOUND 42-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT ABOUT 1500 FT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG. THAT WIND SPEED WOULD
NORMALLY EQUATE TO ABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THERE WERE
SEVERAL BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 35-37 KT IN THAT AREA.
SINCE THOSE WIND REPORTS...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED..AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 76.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES



Edited by danielw (Thu Sep 23 2010 05:37 PM)


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


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Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: TS Matthew [Re: danielw]
      #89665 - Thu Sep 23 2010 05:54 PM

Looking @ the latest vis. satellite loop, it appears that Matthew is still intensifying. I have a feeling that its winds will be around 60 mph by the 10:00 p.m. CDT update.

On a side note, the 18Z NAM is showing the possibility of up to three systems in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico in 3 or 4 days. I know this scenario is not likely, but has there ever been more than two systems in the Caribbean and GOM at a given time?

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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scottsvb
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: WesnWylie]
      #89667 - Thu Sep 23 2010 11:25 PM

Matthew is a complex situation. He will move inland in 36hrs or so in Nicaragua-Honduras boarder near 15N and brush the N coast and weaken to a TD near Belieze. After that.. most bests are off until we find out what is really going to happen downstream with the trough digging down and if another low pressure forms further east. Probably wont be until Sunday 24hrs after landfall will we get a better picture or continues agreements between the GFS and ECMWF on what might form/happen

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Re: TS Matthew [Re: scottsvb]
      #89670 - Fri Sep 24 2010 01:48 AM

Quote:

Matthew is a complex situation. He will move inland in 36hrs or so in Nicaragua-Honduras boarder near 15N and brush the N coast and weaken to a TD near Belieze. After that.. most bests are off until we find out what is really going to happen downstream with the trough digging down and if another low pressure forms further east. Probably wont be until Sunday 24hrs after landfall will we get a better picture or continues agreements between the GFS and ECMWF on what might form/happen




You made my life easy tonight....I've looked at the 24/00Z package this evening...nothing like a bag full of marbles being blown up and sent no matter which way. GFS appears to be showing two distinct systems in the long range and if Matthew is anything like Karl which actually deepened and strengthened while over land; Matthew should remain a distinct cyclone for the duration. The evolving and future shortwave will deepen and become a rather strong cutoff low and slowly exit stage northeast but not before remaining in the mid-South for a couple of days. A pair of ridges, west and over the Atlantic and trough over the east will set the stage for a COL and by definition a very weak steering pattern for the cyclone. Stay tune....

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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OrlandoDan
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: berrywr]
      #89671 - Fri Sep 24 2010 05:43 AM

Deep convection has reeally intensified overnight. It will be interesteing. NHC is having fits with the forecast in the 0500 ET advisory.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #89673 - Fri Sep 24 2010 10:55 AM

We're starting something new by recording Floater Images (Rainbow) for Matthew starting now. The idea will be to record start to finish all tracked invests or storms going forward. (Excluding Lisa)

Matthew (2010) Floater Satellite Recording


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: TS Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #89675 - Fri Sep 24 2010 11:20 AM

As indicated in the latest NHC advisory, Matthew's bark is worse than its bite right now. Satellite imagery looks impressive at first blush, but the convection is not centered over the system and recon has only found a relatively weak tropical storm. It is running out of real estate and isn't likely to intensify much more before landfall (unless it changes direction and stays near or over water). It will still be a very prolific rain producer in any case.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #89679 - Fri Sep 24 2010 12:14 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 15:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 15L in 2010
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 15:15:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°30'N 82°10'W (14.5N 82.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 336 miles (541 km) to the S (189°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,425m (4,675ft) at 850mb
D & E. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: Not Available
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 253° at 34kts (From the WSW at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (217°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:30:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NE (34°) from the flight level center

Those number are out of normal alignment. Pressure is 1002mb. Roughly good for 55kt flight level wind.

The center temperatures are consistant with a near major hurricane. Although there is no reported eye. They are showing a 68F inside the center with a dewpoint of 41F. A 27 degree spread. Haven't seen anything like that in a while.
Something is working right inside the storm even though it isn't 100%.

Also note on the satellite visible imagery a large area of clouds to the east of Matthew, just south of Haiti. I would think the lee of the storm should be a bit more clearer. And this area is just close enough to be the number two system in the Caribbean.

Below is a part of 2005's Major Hurricane Wilma Vortex report, near the same area, at maximum intensity of 193mph flight level wind.
(Difference of 5000 feet of altitude also. Matthew's Vortex was at 5000 feet. Wilma's report here is at 10,000 feet. The temp dewpoint spread is nearly the same.)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 884mb (26.10 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,073m (10,082ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 168kts (~ 193.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 6:10:20Z
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ar...&mission=07


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: MikeC]
      #89681 - Fri Sep 24 2010 02:17 PM

Recording West Caribbean Water Vapor loop for the Matthew/Possible Other System conditions

West Carib WV Late Sept Satellite Recording


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cieldumort
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Re: TS Matthew [Re: danielw]
      #89682 - Fri Sep 24 2010 04:37 PM

Impressive sustained and gusts for so far from the coc, which is also now well inland: station 42057.

Matthew appears to be another 2010 system that is holding its own while traversing land. Not one of those systems to quickly write off simply because it has now pushed well inland, IMHO, if just for the simple fact that it is holding its own while well inland.. and also for the fact that steering currents suggest a distinct possibility of Matthew, or whatever may be left of him, reemerging in the Caribbean or GOM.


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: MikeC]
      #89683 - Fri Sep 24 2010 05:16 PM

Looks like the center of Matthew has jogged to the north a little

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html


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k___g
Weather Guru


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Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: hurricane expert]
      #89689 - Fri Sep 24 2010 07:36 PM

Looks to me as if Matthew will die a slow death over land. It won't be good news for the people affected, though.

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cieldumort
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Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: k___g]
      #89690 - Fri Sep 24 2010 11:54 PM

Truly. About as slow a "death" as that of Tropical Storm Hermine (2010) or Tropical Storm Erin (2007).

Just imagine what Matthew would be doing right now had this landmass not be in the way.

The most recent enhanced IR images show Matthew with still very cold cloud tops as he continues to be a reasonably symmetric, extremely well-ventilated and very moisture-laden tropical cyclone.

20100925.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.15LMATTHEW.50kts-998mb

Image credit: NRL


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: TS Matthew [Re: cieldumort]
      #89691 - Sat Sep 25 2010 02:44 PM

I've been pouring over the 12Z package today and two words, "low confidence" coming out of HPC in regards to how the models are handling this system.. All the ensembles are in different camps. For the moment all models are handling Matthew, not the future evolution of Nicole. There continues to be both speed and position issues that will continue to exist for the foreseeable future. For now no one should concern themselves on where Matthew/Nicole will be heading; whether FL or the northern GOM coast. Additionally, it remains unclear what type of system we'll be talking about...tropical..subtropical...extra-tropical as it begins to interact with the deep trough over the east.. Whatever evolves of Matthew and/or Nicole it is likely we won't have definitive answers until mid week, next week.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


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Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: cieldumort]
      #89692 - Sat Sep 25 2010 02:49 PM

Quote:

Truly. About as slow a "death" as that of Tropical Storm Hermine (2010) or Tropical Storm Erin (2007).

Just imagine what Matthew would be doing right now had this landmass not be in the way.

The most recent enhanced IR images show Matthew with still very cold cloud tops as he continues to be a reasonably symmetric, extremely well-ventilated and very moisture-laden tropical cyclone.

20100925.0315.goes13.x.ir1km.15LMATTHEW.50kts-998mb

Image credit: NRL




Karl traversed the same neck of the woods and held itself together quite well over land. We can't dismiss the pattern in the region with overall low pressure due to the monsoon and what mets refer to as the MJO, the Madden Julian Oscillation. You can learn more about the MJO if you have a bottle of aspirin nearby at Wikipedia. As I posted a moment ago, it is not clear in the long ranges if "Nicole" will emerge from this mess or Matthew which for now the models are handling.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker


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Re: Matthew To Stay Inland [Re: berrywr]
      #89693 - Sat Sep 25 2010 04:53 PM

Looks like Mathew has started his northerly component.

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Rasvar
Weather Master


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Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #89694 - Sat Sep 25 2010 10:07 PM

It is kind of weird right now. Just about all the models have something, be it tropical or hybrid, developing in the Caribbean over the next few days. It seems like most seem to make it from a new circulation. Where there is no agreement from model to model or run to run is what develops and where it goes. So while Matthew is likely going to pass away, it would seem like the action in the region is far from done but might fall into an information gap for the next few days.

--------------------
Jim


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
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Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Rasvar]
      #89695 - Sun Sep 26 2010 12:53 AM

Alot of confusion still going on with the models coming out @ OZ Sunday morning here still. I still feel we cant take any model for granted until we get some kinda of broad low pressure system Monday night or Tuesday north of Honduras. I think we have to wait then @ least 24 if not 48hrs before we really can get a grasp. I would go along right now with the ECMWF only cause the GFS has been really confused on what to make of this all.

From what we can tell, we will have a good trough digging down Mon-Friday into the SE U.S. Low pressure
in the NW carribean will be very broad and will have impulses inside the broad low that will then tele-connect with a frontal trough from the main trough over the S.E. United States as it digs down south of 30N to 20N and near 82-85W. The impulses will respond and move along the trough. Dry air will be on the back side of this trough over the central and northern GOM. How far east this trough makes it by Friday will determine who will see what. if your west of the trough, you will get a few light showers and high clouds, east of the trough and along the low pressure, you will get heavy amounts of rain, gusty winds and heavy rainfall amounts for 4+ inches.

Finally, again we don't know yet where this trough will set up and how fast the low pressure moves up along the trough and how deep the impulse will be, it may be just a impulse of lower pressure around 998mbs as subtropical storm moving NE getting sheared or it might be a little stronger around 990mbs with a good strong band out ahead and to its east (cause it wont be concentrated too much near the COC due to dry air to its west and shear). Still its 5 days out @ least, we will find out probably in 36hrs-48hrs what might happen in strength and placement. Disregard anything south of Cuba in the long range 5-7days as models are really having issues past day 4 right now.


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 106
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #89697 - Sun Sep 26 2010 02:55 PM

Have to say looking over the models this afternoon with this mess in the western Caribbean, some consistency starting to develop especially with the global models. And seeing some convection albeit very disorganized its more believable that we should have a broad low pressure 24-48 hours gradually getting better organized as it moves north. How much strength it can gain is hard to tell given the trough digging into the southeast with increasing shear. I think its becoming a little more clear given the agreement with models that Cuba and Floirda needs to watch it closely. How far the trough/front digs into the state, how much shear will effect it will determine its future path and strength. Models range from big bend to the southeast floirda coast. Until we have a center and point to track its hard to do anything but speculate.

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89698 - Sun Sep 26 2010 03:04 PM

Looking closely at the zoomed in visible loops in Caribbean some rotation noted near 18N and 84W moving north-northwest...

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
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Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89701 - Sun Sep 26 2010 03:12 PM

Buoy 42056 has been showing consistent pressure falls all day and the latest is down to 1006.2mb. It is located:
19.874 N 85.059 W (19°52'27" N 85°3'33" W)
winfds are brisk out of the SE @ 15knt

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Posts: 106
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: WeatherNut]
      #89704 - Sun Sep 26 2010 05:22 PM

Buoy 42056 continues falling down to 1005mb Southeast winds between 15-20 knots. This is just northwest of the area where some slight rotation was noted in visible satellite imagery...

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


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Posts: 106
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Re: Still a dynamic situation in the Caribbean [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89705 - Sun Sep 26 2010 05:43 PM

Interesting to read the model discussion from HPC, read the last paragraph...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


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Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MikeC]
      #89706 - Sun Sep 26 2010 06:46 PM

I am seeing quite a bit of rotation in the convection in the Northwest Caribbean late this afternoon. I think we may have another tropical depression form sometime tomorrow. I think the NHC will increase its chance for development to 20% or 30% in the next update.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 366
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: WesnWylie]
      #89707 - Mon Sep 27 2010 01:19 AM

Good evening....Is disturbance likely to be Subtropical or Tropical?

The disturbance in the Western Caribbean in the wake of Matthewis integrated into a larger area of low pressure which dominates a good chunk of the Western Caribbean and Central America and is not a separate entity as of this typing. There is a 300 millibar and higher anti-cyclone (upper ridge) over the remnant low or remains of Matthew near the coast of SE Mexico and the Bay of Campeche with outflow over the disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Winds aloft over the Western Caribbean are light however increasingly hostile as you move towards the SE USA..

The evolving pattern over the Eastern United States is quite complicated beginning with the upper cutoff low centered over the border of Southern Illinois and SE Missouri. It is forecast to be near the border of N AL and S TN in 24 hours and begin to fill and lift NE slowly in the days ahead; however a strong shortwave will dropping into the base of the trough and deepening the trough over the Eastern United States later in the week with this trough extending south and south-southwest to the Yucatan Peninsula. This trough will induce moderate shear all up and down the east coast and FL..

The system will gradually work itself north over the next several days. There is also the possibility we'll be dealing with two distinct systems. I can't rule out the system being tropical to start but becoming extra-tropical and moving up the coast as a non-tropical low or being absorbed by the larger non-tropical low that will form in advance of the upper low now over the Mid-South.

HPC & TPC have expressed low confidence and I share their concern. Mixing tropical and dynamic (baroclinic....temperature gradience over distance in an airmass) is complicated stuff given the depth of the longwave trough over the Eastern US for the next several days and beyond.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: berrywr]
      #89708 - Mon Sep 27 2010 07:38 AM

Mornin' all..... Looks like this morning's satellite would seem to indicate that perhaps a LLC may be developing, "on cue" perhaps near 18.0 & 82.0. Looking at the overnight Euro and GFS 6Z run, I would think that perhaps a sub-tropical depression might get pulled ahead of the short wave forecasted to drape the N. Florida area by mid to late week. With any luck ( for Florida ) a good amount of the the deep moisture feeding up from the Caribbean this week hopefully will train east of the state. Current upper air is certainly looking like shear is starting to impinge well into the Central Gulf and perhaps ( to a lessor extent ) almost all the way to Yucatan.

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Owlguin
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: weathernet]
      #89709 - Mon Sep 27 2010 10:33 AM

Is there a recon mission going out today?

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: weathernet]
      #89710 - Mon Sep 27 2010 10:43 AM

If a LLC is forming.. its with the midlevel convection just SE of Cancun near 86W right now.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: scottsvb]
      #89713 - Mon Sep 27 2010 02:30 PM

The area in the western Caribbean has been designated 96L, and model runs should come shortly.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MikeC]
      #89714 - Mon Sep 27 2010 02:34 PM

NOUS42 KNHC 271630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT MON 27 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 28/1530Z
D. 20.0N 85.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 28/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 29/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 29/0315Z
D. 21.5N 84.5W
E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

3. TASKING FOR AF AND G-IV MISSIONS AT 28/1800Z, 29/06 AND 1200Z WERE CANX BY NHC AT 1115Z.

Western Cuba Radar Loop- 1 image/ hour

Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 27 2010 03:08 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89717 - Mon Sep 27 2010 03:34 PM

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (190°) at 23.3 kt gusting to 27.2 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 76.8 F
Water Temperature: 85.1 F


Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (141°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.66 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 78.1 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F

Station LCIY2 Little Cayman Research Centre, Cayman Islands
Integrated Coral Observing Network (ICON)
Location: 19.699N 80.061W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 27 Sep 2010 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 15.0 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.72 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 75.0 F
Water Temperature: 85.5 F


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl. 30.16N 85.76W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89719 - Mon Sep 27 2010 04:34 PM

think you folks might like seeing this...

Map of flight path:
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pred...light_track.png

Loop of : GV - forward_camera Time range: 2010/09/27 12:01 - 2010/09/27 19:38 UTC
Loop of GV forward camera from 1201Z to 1938Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by danielw (Mon Sep 27 2010 05:52 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #89720 - Mon Sep 27 2010 04:37 PM

Something is wrong with your loop link.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL 27.37N 80.37W
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: MichaelA]
      #89721 - Mon Sep 27 2010 08:31 PM

Click on the little "movie camera" icon on the right panel...

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 106
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #89722 - Mon Sep 27 2010 09:25 PM

Looks as though this system is very slow to evolve even more then I thought it would by now, Theres a serious lack in convective organization and very hard to find a low pressure center anywhere as it looks quite broad right now. I would believe that by tomorrow there will be something just south of western Cuba moving north-northeast probably still not very organized given the increasing amount of shear it will encounter in the straits. My best guess a tropical storm until reaching Floirda near Naples/Monroe mainland area becoming subtropical strom crossing Floirda as it rides the front northeast. Not sure about the GFDL strength Cat 1 or even 2 offshore Floirda east coast looks a little much but will need to be watched.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 811
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Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: GoBigSurf]
      #89725 - Tue Sep 28 2010 08:34 AM

Kept getting 404 errors before. Working this AM.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 1/1/0


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: Joeyfl]
      #89727 - Tue Sep 28 2010 09:51 AM

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010


SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NW CARIBBEAN LOW

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
28/1215 UTC 20.2N 82.8W 020deg NNE at /09kts 9.4 IN 8.0 IN


LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 0.0 TO 1.0 IN 0.1 TO 1.1 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 0.5 TO 2.4 IN 0.9 TO 4.1 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.5 TO 1.7 IN 4.0 TO 6.5 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.4 IN 6.5 TO 8.0 IN


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: West Caribbean Disturbance [Re: danielw]
      #89728 - Tue Sep 28 2010 09:52 AM

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING AND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE COASTAL
WATERS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND
82W...FROM GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS TO THE COASTAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W...AND FROM 18N
TO 19N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W IN THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF
THE ISTHMUS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD SURFACE-TO-MIDDLE
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
19N85W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP
LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS IN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
TD 16??? [Re: danielw]
      #89730 - Tue Sep 28 2010 10:11 AM

NHC just issued the following guidance with a TD 16 Heading. Possible upgrade to TD status shortly.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1200 100929 0000 100929 1200 100930 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.2N 82.8W 21.2N 83.0W 22.1N 82.8W 23.6N 81.4W
BAMD 20.2N 82.8W 21.5N 82.5W 23.6N 81.9W 26.6N 81.1W
BAMM 20.2N 82.8W 21.3N 82.9W 22.4N 82.6W 24.3N 81.4W
LBAR 20.2N 82.8W 22.1N 82.4W 25.1N 82.1W 29.4N 81.5W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 44KTS 49KTS

Edited by danielw (Tue Sep 28 2010 10:13 AM)


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