crpeavley
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 26
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Despite the model intensity Forecast?
AL96 (Depression 16 Intensity)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
Despite the model intensity Forecast?
AL96 (Depression 16 Intensity)
Most of the intensity models do not take land interaction into account, and aren't worth much until there is a clear center.
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
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It's 2010. You'd think the and other government bodies would update their models to better understand land interaction with storms...
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Josh Delsman
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 70
Loc: Miami, FL
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From what I can see on the visible floater loop, a broad center of circulation is clearly evident just SW of the Isle of Youth. Colder cloud tops are starting to wrap around this center, as well. Could this be the short burst of strengthening the is forecasting before the actual first landfall in Cuba, and has it reached tropical storm status yet? I guess we'll see at 5, or until the next recon fix.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The infrared satellites show some of the colder cloud tops decreasing, while the visible is showing more organization. This system may wind up being more subtropical than anything else.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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TD16 is indeed more subtropical rather than tropical - and the structure was also subtropical this morning as well. The TD is still quite weak with poor structure - as are most subtropical systems. The TD should cross over western Cuba just to the south of Havana and the terrain in that area is rather flat with mountains further to the west. Since the system is already weak, crossing Cuba is not going to disrupt it too much (if at all). Havana pressure at 5PM and 6PM EDT was down to 1000MB.
Havana, Cuba Weather
With reference to some earlier comments, the DSHP model does consider land interaction, i.e., inland decay. Note the difference between the SHIP and the DSHP in the following:
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1829 UTC TUE SEP 28 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN (AL162010) 20100928 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100928 1800 100929 0600 100929 1800 100930 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.2N 82.9W 22.5N 82.7W 24.3N 81.6W 26.9N 79.7W
BAMD 21.2N 82.9W 23.6N 82.4W 27.0N 81.7W 31.1N 80.9W
BAMM 21.2N 82.9W 22.8N 82.3W 25.3N 81.1W 28.8N 79.2W
LBAR 21.2N 82.9W 23.5N 82.2W 27.2N 81.5W 32.0N 80.3W
SHIP 35KTS...........41KTS..............50KTS..............57KTS
DSHP 35KTS...........33KTS..............44KTS..............44KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100930 1800 101001 1800 101002 1800 101003 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.4N 77.6W 35.6N 73.9W 40.3N 68.0W 45.6N 57.1W
BAMD 35.5N 79.6W 45.6N 70.8W 55.2N 54.7W 57.2N 30.6W
BAMM 33.5N 77.0W 42.9N 68.8W 51.5N 52.2W 52.7N 27.4W
LBAR 37.8N 77.9W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 62KTS..............54KTS..........31KTS..........0KTS
DSHP 49KTS..............32KTS..........0KTS
ED
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A veritable smorgasbord out there in the Caribbean tonight. More or less it's monsoon trough meet subtropical cyclone meet extra-tropical transition, and yet with none taking a commanding role so far.
Considering the very low pressure for being "just" a depression, interaction with the upper trough and surface front to its north and northwest, character of its winds, precip and more, 16 is possibly more accurately if not best described as a sheared subtropical cyclone (and arguably a sheared marginal subtropical storm, already). The strongest surface winds, consisting of bouts approaching or even just exceeding 39MPH, and almost all of the heavier showers and storms, are much removed from the coc & primarily within the deep, streaming convection to the southeast of the center. Within the cyclone's broad center, which has been sort of hanging out near the Isle of Youth just south of western Cuba, pressures are fairly uniform and relatively low, winds are pretty light, and convection is almost non-existent.
Should the center of 16 tighten up a good bit, then it may be expected to behave more or less like most classic tropical storms. However, given the mess, one should not focus at all on the center of 16, but rather expect a somewhat large but potentially inconsistent area of bad weather of a transitory nature: for a while located here - later shifting a bit more over there - and so on.
And so unless and until 16 really tightens up, for the southeast, Cuba, and nearby offshore islands, the worst concern is likely to be a high risk of the upper trough and front exiting off the wringing out the very deep tropical moisture associated with 16 - resulting in flooding.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Actually, it's the Isle of Youth (formerly the Isle of Pines). The Isle of Man is in the Irish Sea between Scotland and Northern Ireland. 
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Michael
PWS
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Today's very heavy rainfall in Central Florida was from a stalled out front enhanced by the large broad area of tropical moisture associated with TD#16. In fact, Central Florida received much more rain (so far) than South Florida did today.
The center is still a bit difficult to track as TD#16 is not purely tropical. Pressures are very low in the area however, and it is expected to move nearer to South and Central Florida tomorrow night. Until it gets a persistent center it will probably remain a depression.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I have my doubts as far as Tropical Depression 16 becoming Tropical Storm Nicole before moving over Cuba. My thoughts are that it will become a tropical storm early tomorrow but probably not tonight since there is no convection surrounding the center.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I'm going to lay this to rest now; TD16 is not a tropical depression though officially it is. Currently there is a 997 millibar surface low near 22.5N 81.7W based on surface and buoy observations coming onshore in the area. There is some convection near the center however stronger convective complex is active near and over Jamaica and points east and southeast where very light shear aloft resides. Hostile winds aloft reside very close to the surface center with 20 knots over the system increasing west and north away from the center. the broader surface circulation at 29/00Z.
If not a tropical depression, what is it? At best it is a subtropical depression and will transition to a extra-tropical low within the next 24 to 36 hours as a shortwave rounds the base of the cutoff upper low aloft over the SE USA. This "non-tropical" low will deepen into an early Nor'Easter for the Mid-Atlantic and New England area and move rapidly up the coast in the next few days and bring strong winds and heavy precip up and along the Eastern Seaboard.
There is the possibility of another tropical or subtropical system forming in the Caribbean later into the week; early next week as surface pressures are low over a broad area.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The "Center" is still quite a bit of a mess, now relocated over Central Cuba by the , and actuality it may still be south of Cuba. Which just drags this out a bit longer.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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I'm not a meteorologist (nor did I stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night) but am I wrong in thinking that TD16 is being stretched into a huge elongated mess of a storm system stretching from the Yucatan all up the Eastern seaboard? And am I wrong to think the rain in Florida will go on for at least a couple more days? It looks like a huge conveyor belt of Caribbean moisture ahead of the stationary front up into the Eastern US.
I also wonder what will stop the conveyor and return sunshine to the "Sunshine State".
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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New best track puts it at 21.9N 80.9W, or offshore just south of Playa Giron, Cuba. (which is due south of Marathon Key) Still the whole thing resembles more of a trough than a classic tropical system.
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st
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
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I hope is still paying attention to the area that they had labeled only as 10% just east of the carribean because it is starting to look very impressive.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Now Recording Radar for Florida until the mess passes:
Flhurricane Long Term Radar Recording of Florida Approach of TD#16
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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TD#16 is now Nicole as of the 11 AM Advisory.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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All Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Florida have been discontinued as Nicole is forecast to remain East of the State. Rain still will occur along the peninsula.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Decoded METAR Reports with wind speed in mph. Metar wind speed in knots
Latest hourly minimum pressure or maximum wind speed in bold
ICAO MKJP
Station Name Kingston/Norman
Time 29 / 15:19Z
Temperature 71.6
RH 88
Wind S (170) at 32
Visibility 0.1
Pressure 1008.1
Weather Heavy Rain with Thunderstorm
METAR MKJP 291519Z 17028KT 0100 +TSRA BKN016 BKN020CB OVC070 22/20 Q1008
ICAO MKJS
Station Name Sangster/Monteg
Time 29 / 15:00Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 79
Wind SSW (210) at 16
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 1003.0
Weather Light Rain with Thunderstorm
METAR MKJS 291500Z 21014KT 9999 -TSRA BKN016 BKN018CB 27/23 Q1003
ICAO MMCP
Station Name Campeche/Ignacio
Time 29 / 14:41Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 70
Wind Calm
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1004.1
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 1.2 mb
METAR MMCP 291441Z 00000KT 7SM FEW015 SCT040 BKN200 27/21 A2965 RMK SLP042 52012 956 8/602
ICAO MMCZ
Station Name Cozumel (Civ/Mil
Time 29 / 14:40Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 89
Wind NNW (330) at 12
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1003.7
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 4.4 mb
METAR MMCZ 291440Z 33010KT 7SM BKN015TCU BKN250 26/24 A2964 RMK SLP045 52044 900 8/208 SC
ICAO MMUN
Station Name Cancun
Time 29 / 14:44Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 89
Wind NNW (340) at 8
Visibility 7.0
Pressure 1003.4
Weather
Remarks 3-Hour Pressure Increasing: 2.0 mb
METAR MMUN 291444Z 34007KT 7SM SCT018TCU SCT250 27/25 A2963 RMK SLP031 52020 967 8/208 -RA OCNL
ICAO MUCF
Station Name Cienfuegos(Civ/M
Time 29 / 15:22Z
Temperature 75.2
RH 89
Wind ESE (120) at 5
Visibility 2.5
Pressure 997.0
Weather Rain
METAR MUCF 291522Z 12004KT 080V160 4000 1500S RA OVC015 24/22 Q0997
ICAO MUCL
Station Name Cayo Largo D Sur
Time 29 / 14:56Z
Temperature 82.4
RH 79
Wind W (260) at 9
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 997.0
Weather
METAR MUCL 291456Z 26008KT 9999 FEW015 BKN200 28/24 Q0997
ICAO MUCM
Station Name Camaguey/Iganci
Time 29 / 14:51Z
Temperature 77.0
RH 89
Wind SE (140) at 16
Visibility 5.0
Pressure 1003.0
Weather
METAR MUCM 291451Z 14014KT 8000 BKN015 OVC060 25/23 Q1003
ICAO MUCU
Station Name Santiago De Cub
Time 29 / 14:50Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 84
Wind SE (140) at 18
Visibility 3.1
Pressure N/A
Weather
METAR MUCU 291450Z 14016KT 110V170 5000 SCT018 BKN025 OVC060 26/23 Q1 00
ICAO MUGM
Station Name Guantanamo Bay
Time 29 / 15:29Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 84
Wind S (180) at 39, 46 gusts
Visibility 1.2
Pressure 1008.1
Weather Heavy Rain
Remarks Hourly Precipitation Amount: 0.10 inch
METAR MUGM 291529Z 18034G40KT 2000 +RA FEW017 BKN029 OVC037 27/24 A2977 RMK PK WND 16040/1528 (peak wind SSE at 40kts at 1528Z-1128EDT) T2 SET P0010
ICAO MUHA
Station Name Havana/Jose Mar
Time 29 / 14:55Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 84
Wind NW (310) at 10
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 998.0
Weather
METAR MUHA 291455Z 31009KT 9000 SCT020 BKN150 27/24 Q0998
ICAO MUHG
Station Name Holguin (Civ/Mil
Time 29 / 14:51Z
Temperature 78.8
RH 84
Wind SSE (150) at 22, 39 gusts
Visibility > 6.2
Pressure 1004.1
Weather
METAR MUHG 291451Z 15019G34KT 120V180 9999 SCT020 BKN090 26/23 Q1004
ICAO MUMZ
Station Name Manzanillo
Time 29 / 14:54Z
Temperature 73.4
RH 94
Wind Variable at 7
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 1006.1
Weather
METAR MUMZ 291454Z VRB06KT 9000 BKN018 23/22 Q1006
ICAO MUVR
Station Name Varadero
Time 29 / 14:53Z
Temperature 77.0
RH 89
Wind WNW (300) at 7
Visibility 5.0
Pressure 998.0
Weather
METAR MUVR 291453Z 30006KT 270V330 8000 BKN008 25/23 Q0998
ICAO MWCR
Station Name Grnd Cayman/Owen
Time 29 / 15:00Z
Temperature 80.6
RH 94
Wind WSW (250) at 23
Visibility 5.6
Pressure 999.0
Weather Light Rain
METAR MWCR 291500Z 25020KT 200V260 9000 -RA BKN014CB OVC080 27/26 Q0999 NOSIG
Edited by danielw (Wed Sep 29 2010 12:10 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I can't find the surface center. There is some rotation over the Lower Keys but as of this hour the upper low and long wave trough are now over at least one-half of the overall circulation and what is advertised as the center. Wind Shear analysis confirms 20 knots over the center and 30 knots from the Western tip of Cuba across the lower Keys to Naple FL to Melbourne, FL. At 5 pm this may go down as one of the shortest named systems. I don't doubt there's a broad circulation; however the 11 am advisory did relocate the center along the south coast whereas the 5 am advisory had the center on the north coast and about to emerge over the Florida Straits.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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