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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Confusion
      #89789 - Wed Sep 29 2010 01:23 PM

Seldom do I take issue with NHC but I guess that this is one of those ‘seldoms’. Here are the storm center locations for TD16/Nicole as reported by NHC:

29/03Z: 21.9N 81.9W
29/06Z: 22.7N 81.6W – movement NNE 50 miles
29/09Z: 23.3N 81.4W – movement NNE 45 miles
29/12Z: 22.6N 81.4W – movement S 45 miles
29/12Z: 21.9N 80.9W – movement SE 90 miles from 09Z position (12Z position corrected or adjusted at 15Z)
29/15Z: 22.6N 80.6W – movement NE 50 miles
29/18Z: 23.5N 80.6W - movement N 54 miles

From 03Z to 12Z the net movement was 60 miles to the east.
From 06Z to 15Z the net movement was about 60 miles to the east.
Throughout the entire 12 hour period the movement of the cyclone was reported as NNE or NE at 8 or 9 knots.
Movement of 45 to 50 miles in a three hour period is not a speed of 8 or 9 knots.
Center relocation was only mentioned once in the Public Advisories.

I realize that there are a lot of new Hurricane Specialists or Sr. Hurricane Specialists at the NHC this year, however, this example of constant center repositioning over a 12 hour period does not bolster public confidence and can lead to confusion on the part of the media and Emergency Management personnel that have the difficult task of relaying accurate and official storm information to the general audience. I realize that finding a centerpoint can be a difficult task when you are dealing with a developing system that has a poorly defined center. On the other hand, embryonic systems with poorly defined centers are normally kept at the Invest level until the system center becomes stable. It is very true that it is not wise to simply focus only on the center since other aspects of the storm are very important in determining impacts within the cone, but the accuracy of the models require an accurate starting point (current storm position). I would hope that NHC will re-examine these issues of storm definition, precision and continuity during the off-season.
ED


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