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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
October Tropics
      #89803 - Thu Sep 30 2010 07:23 AM

7AM EDT Friday, October 1 2010 Update
It's now October and not much has changed from yesterday in the thinking of the two areas.

97L appears to be slightly more organized, and now has a 40% chance for development over the next two days. The Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch, but odds are against any US impact from the system as it it is likely to recurve before then. Those in the northeast Caribbean and Turks and Caicos islands of the Bahamas will want to watch it closely however.

October is usually when things begin to wind down, still quite a bit of potential and the Gulf and Caribbean are the places to generally watch. This year the gulf is blocked from development at least for now, and the Caribbean continues to have a lot of disorganized convection. In general you have to monitor closer to home at this time of year rather than far out.

Massive amount of rainfall from the frontal boundary tied up with the Nicole Remnants has started to fasde and move more easterly after nearly a full day of rain from Eastern North Carolina northward.

The area in the west Caribbean continues to "boil" but nothing organized is happening there currently.

Western Caribbean/Storm (Late Sept 2010) Water Vapor Satellite Recording / Full Storm Satellite Loop

Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Visible Satellite Recording

Western Caribbean (Late Sept 2010) Rainbow IR Satellite Recording

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA
Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Original Update
Now that Nicole has left almost as quickly as it started, the remnants of the storm and the surrounding moisture stream continue to rain down on Eastern North Carolina and points north. This rain along with potential for Tornadoes should continue all day and part of tomorrow, flooding there is already occurring. Points north in Virginia, Pennsylvania, New York, and Maryland and northward also will find themselves in potential flooding conditions.

There is a small chance Nicole reforms into something subtropical, but it's likely done for as a named entity. Beyond this there is a wave east of the leewards that has a small chance to form (10%), but it's really the wave to the east of that one (97L) that is more likely to form.

If 97L Forms odds are it will most likely to stay near or just north of the Caribbean islands and hen turn out to sea at or just before the Bahamas. This is still uncertain though, so It will be worth watching later this week. Those in the Leeward islands will want to pay attention to this approaching system.

Right now most of the Gulf and eastern United States (West of the Nicole moisture stream) are closed for tropical business at least for the most of the week. This will likely keep 97L and anything else that may form in the Caribbean further east and away from the US. This likely will keep any immediate threat away from the coast for the next week.

The remainder of the Caribbean is still a boiling pot for development as well, but most of the energy has moved away from the Western Caribbean. There are some model hints for one more "thing" coming out of the west Caribbean, so it will still have to be monitored.

Areas to watch: The continued moisture stream in the Carolinas, the large areas of convection in the Caribbean, and 97L.


Mark Sudduth from Hurricane Track.com is doing live video from the rainfall caused by "Nicole" in North Carolina track him here


Ex-Nicole Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ex-Nicole


stormplotthumb_16.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ex-Nicole (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ex-Nicole (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ex-Nicole

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ex-Nicole
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ex-Nicole -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Post Nicole Tropics [Re: MikeC]
      #89804 - Thu Sep 30 2010 12:05 PM

I think if 97L can stay on the southern side of the spectrum of where the models track it, it will have a decent shot at becoming a tropical depression in 3-4 days. Otherwise, if it wanders further north than what the models are showing, then it will probably get torn apart from the shear. It really isn't looking that bad on satellite late this morning.

--------------------
2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01


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