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96L near north coast of Hispaniola. 80% chance for development. Bahamas, Florida needs to watch closely.
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1081
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L [Re: Unregistered User]
      #90002 - Fri Oct 29 2010 01:59 PM

Quote:

any one know if 91L is pulling all that moisture from the fae se to east of the main area? meaning from 20-45 long.




The short answer is, yes. Invest 91L (Almost certainly Tomas very soon, if not already), is indeed tapping into that very long fetch of tropical moisture. You can actually make this out in today's visible satellite images. (LINK)


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 368
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Unofficially "Tomas" [Re: cieldumort]
      #90005 - Fri Oct 29 2010 02:49 PM

I took a look at the 29/12Z package this afternoon in-depth. The feature that stands out is the upper ridge that current resides in the extreme Eastern Caribbean and is parked right over the top of "Tomas". I'm shocked that NHC hasn't designated this system either Tropical or Subtropical given its satellite presentation. This upper ridge is expected to expand and remain across the entire Caribbean for the foreseeable future. The upper low currently at 23.0N and 69.5W is expected to lift out and shear immediately to the NW of the system will relax or at least shift farther away from "Tomas". Re-curvature will be in the Caribbean at some future date. I'm not going to speculate as to intensity; however as long as the upper high remains aloft over or near Tomas, Tomas may become a formidable hurricane for this late in the season. It is important to remember the calendar and what time of year it is. The spaces which a storm/hurricane must travel all few and far between given there will be dynamic (cold-core) lows aloft and adjacent frontal systems nearby and between these lows and highs aloft; shear.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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