Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2104
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 19Z a Tropical Disturbance appears to be forming a low level center near 26.1N 75.9W (with considerable margin for error) or about 250 miles east of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Movement is to the west, perhaps even slightly north of due west, at 15 knots. Winds near the formative center are estimated at 25 to 30 knots with pressure estimated at 1010mb.
The system has gained better organization during the day and if this trend continues, formation of a Tropical Depression seems likely later this evening. Squalls extend outward about 100 miles to the west of the center and about 150 miles to the north, east and south of the center. Squalls should reach the southern half of the Florida east coast well before sunrise on Thursday with some squalls producing tropical storm force gusts and brief heavy downpours.
Since most of the 'weather' is east of the developing center, rain squalls should last through mid afternoon along the Florida east coast, and into the evening along the Florida west coast.
If the system continues to develop, there is a chance that it might reach Tropical Storm intensity just before landfall Thursday morning, so residents of southeast Florida should monitor the progress of this developing system closely. All residents from about St. Augustine southward can expect a wet and windy commute Thursday morning.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by CFHC (Wed Aug 13 2003 06:49 PM)
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Will from Miami
Unregistered
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Hello from Sunny and Hot Miami Today. Any chance this system becomes classified by 5 pm or some kind of watches or warnings come up because this system is only hours away from our coast and is looking better organized.
Anyone, any chance classification by 5 pm even without a true closed low level vortex present? anyone?
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Will from Miami
Unregistered
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It seems South Florida has been immune to tropical systems for some years now but I guess this one is heading in a beeline toward SFLa albeit not that strong but should be a vey interesting night and morning as the bad weather approaches.
Also, seeing and knowing that the system is strengthening adds yet another surprise and exciting element to tonight.
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Ok...so... in Miami right now its breezy..a hot dry breezy, almost stings your body with the intense heat yet dry.. almost like in California with Santana winds... funny to be here and feel hot dry winds.. can see moisture on radar moving fast towards shore... looks like in bands.
Suppose we can say its an elongated system with a broad circulation but I still think it's within realm of depression status.. my 2 cents.
Heard Barometer Bob has Bob Sheets on tonight, maybe someone can ask him about this type of yes/no situation.
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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(1) Watches and warnings: gale watches or warnings are possible without a classified system, but storm/hurricane watches or warnings will only go up if a system is classified (i.e. as at least a TD).
(2) No, this will not be classified as a TD or storm unless that closed center of circulation is found. Again, it's part of the definition of a TD or tropical storm, so unless the definition is changed, that won't happen.
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Still looking like Ft. Lauderdale on north will get the worst of the weather if the "center" beelines westward., but it almost appears to have a slight WNW component in recent sat pics.
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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Dvorak numbers are back at 1.0 - hasn't had a number for a couple days, at least.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Winds currently along the Gold Coast at 3 pm:
WPB 22 gusting to 26
Pompano Bch 23 gusting to 28
Ft. Lauderdale 21 gusting to 26
W Kendall 18 gusting to 28
I have a weather station here at my house (Boynton Beach). We just had a peak gust to 30 mph at 4:17 pm. Pressure has dropped .07" in 3 hours.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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A squall with a 29mph gust just came through Ft. Laud, looks like the weather will be going downhill from here
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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The Saints
Unregistered
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Hey Richie,
>>The Saints = Not Even Florida Football Caliber
You have got to be kidding. We went 2-0 vs. Florida last year, so I guess on the one hand you could say that we're not FL Caliber. We'll probably go 3-0 this year since we play the Sux and the Fags (not that there's anything wrong with it), and if you count pre-season vs. the Dolphins, we'll probably go 4-0.
And oh yeah, 91L is far too wimpy to be a Louisiana storm  .
LMAO
Steve
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Jim M
Unregistered
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I like what MLB calls it a "Tropical Low." Not really a wave; but not a depression or storm either. Not sure if it will ever morph into a storm; but, I think some less than pleasent weather is due over the next 18 hours for the southern 2/3's of Florida. At least it is moving quickly. So the flooding won't be as bad as it could be.
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Seems to me the convection with this system is fading in the last few loops. Just when we think were gonna get it to spin up. let's see what the next few hours brings. Cheers!!
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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A little off the more pressing issue but has anyone seem to notice a little spin in the BOC? I don't think it is UL either. Noticed it at work around 3 CDT.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Steve-Unplugged
Unregistered
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That's the southern end of the remnants from 90L that are underneath a ridge of high pressure. I mentioned it Saturday and got shot down on it here, but had things aligned only slightly differently, Texas could have been in for 2 hits in 5 days - not something you see very often.
Steve
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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What is also interesting is the remnants from the first "big spin" that came off of Africa a while back are now kicking up on the back side of the Caribbean ULL. I wonder which system will win the battle for that energy. I posted on Storm2k that it will be interesting to see how strong 91L can get crossing the Gulf westward. It will be south of a very strong retrograding Atlantic ridge and north of the ULL. It's position relative to the ULL is the biggest factor in how strong it can get. I wouldn't rule out Cat-1, but if things align right, 2 or 3 wouldn't be out of the question for South Texas.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I'll look back. I may have missed it due to being shot at myself 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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GATOR
Unregistered
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Hey Richie,
>>The Saints = Not Even Florida Football Caliber
You have got to be kidding. We went 2-0 vs. Florida last year, so I guess on the one hand you could say that we're not FL Caliber. We'll probably go 3-0 this year since we play the Sux and the Fags (not that there's anything wrong with it), and if you count pre-season vs. the Dolphins, we'll probably go 4-0.
And oh yeah, 91L is far too wimpy to be a Louisiana storm .
LMAO
Steve
It doesnt matter that the AINTS went 2-0 vs Florida..... LAST YEAR Where were the AINTS when it COUNTED ???? Remember the season starts in September, see ya then  oh ya wimpy storms ??? REMEMBER Andrew ???? JA
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javlin24
Unregistered
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I notced it early at about 11 today .I read what Steve said awhile back and asked if this is what was to split the trough.The ULL I guess is what Steve is mentioning will inhibit development later.Does appear that something is tring to get going.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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The new recon flight is now sending obs back, so this system could get classified in the next couple of hours. Area of deep convection developing over / near possible centre... could this be a type feature?
Regards
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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I need more eyes. I know I am probably the worst model "toter" ( is that a word ) but the worst time possible for PSU to go down  I guess they may have got wormed?
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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