Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Re: Non-Weather Bulletin
      #9183 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:29 PM

According to CNN, the power outage is a result of overload, not terrorism...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: ERIKA- upgraded by NHC at 1600 8/14
      #9184 - Thu Aug 14 2003 05:34 PM

Fully agree with the continued western trend at a similar speed. If there was ever high pressure, it's here now. Yesterday was cloudy (under the influence of that wave all day) and got to about 82-85. Today is nothing but blue skies and hot sun - 91 or 92 I'm sure.

We'll have to see what happens overnight, but if you're in south Texas, remember the rule of storms intensifying when hitting that coast perpendicularly. Could be a major league player.

Also, Erika officially ends the 60 year trend of 2 (*edit* - all years but 1 which had 3) or less storms after years with 6 or more storms in the Gulf. This is another oddity in a season full of 'em. My forecast said there would be at least 5 named storms in the GOM, and I expect to hit it.

As for down the road, I doubt we'll have to look as far east as Africa. We've got sustained convection pulling slightly north off the coast of Central America and a wave just making its way into the Islands which doesn't look like much - but these are the ones that blow up after they reach 70. It's still pretty far south and could end up being EPAC action. But with Bastardi saying watch due South of the tip (head?) of Florida this weekend as an area to expect development, and with two systems more or less offering some heat energy for that area. And it all pisses me off because I'm trying to get insurance on a house I'm supposed to close on next week. As anyone in Louisiana can tell you, if there's a named storm in the Gulf (headed this way or not), underwriters won't issue policies. Bah. For once, I'd like to see some quiet (if only for a week).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9185 - Thu Aug 14 2003 06:05 PM

The model he was going off of was likely the UKMET. I remember some last runs before PSU bit the dust. It dropped it off... sometimes the 850 vort would not pick it up. I guess he put all his stock in that one.. oh well.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical System Approaches South Florida
      #9186 - Thu Aug 14 2003 06:07 PM

None taken

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: since when does a 1.5 rate a designation?
      #9187 - Thu Aug 14 2003 06:11 PM

The Dvorak is one thing, but with a storm that close, easy enough to get to, they (NHC) won't class it until they can close it off... and finally did

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
met
Unregistered




Re: since when does a 1.5 rate a designation?
      #9188 - Thu Aug 14 2003 06:46 PM

discussion on NHC says atlantic is open for business, for the cape verde train. and strong one is there now. and more piled up over africa. look out next few days and weeks.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Alex
Unregistered




the other area
      #9189 - Thu Aug 14 2003 06:54 PM

TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 16W
WITH AN 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N. THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES
AROUND THE LOW AND IN THE ITCZ. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SOME
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR FORECAST...
WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS AND COMPUTER MODEL GENESIS
FORECASTS. CONVECTION IS INCREASING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

(note:the latest map shows the pressure down to 1009, same as Erika)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
bobbi... really
Unregistered




THE wave...
      #9311 - Sun Aug 17 2003 08:52 PM

Think it has possibilities.. guarded optimism here... main reason.. it's moving slow enough that it has a chance to keep its convection about it and possibly develop...

Has a chance..

Bobbi... really


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 12 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 14944

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center