Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Depression 2 has formed in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to intensify to hurricane strength as it moves northwest just off the southwest coast of Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued by for a small portion of the Mexican coast at and southeast of Manzanillo. The next name on the list in the Eastern Pacific is 'Beatriz'.
Weather at Manzanillo, Mexico
ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon just completed a pass though the Eye.
Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) WSW at ~ 79.3 mph
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) SFC. Wind 80.5 mph
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind 85.1 mph
Minimum pressure was 991mb on one of the dropsondes.
This should upgrade Beatriz to a Category 1 Hurricane.
Data from tropicalglobe.com and USAF Hurricane Hunters.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 20 2011 02:41 PM)
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CoconutCandy
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Indeed, 'Beatriz' could well be a borderline Cat 1 Hurricane already, due to increasing organization and per the recon mission assessment.
No recent overpasses by passive microwave imaging satellites to go by, per se, but recent animated water vapor imagery reveals a collapse of earlier feeder bands, and a consolidation of the inner convection into a tight core under a "Central Dense Overcast", or feature, often the harbingers of further intensification.
Cloud tops are warming slightly this afternoon, as to be expected during the diurnal convective minimum cycle. But good chance that 'Beatriz' will continue to strengthen, perhaps considerably, during the coming overnight hours, local basin time.
As mentioned the SW'ern coast of Mexico will have to be diligent, as they may have a landfalling hurricane to deal with before all is said and done, should the ridge not build back in as quickly or as strong as is currently forecast.
Per the latest Discussion:
"BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE RIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS.
THE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
Additionally ...
CONDITIONS ALONG
THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
Awaiting next bulletin's discussion and further microwave imagery to post further analysis ... 
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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