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20% Chance of W Gulf Development this weekend. Heavy rains and some winds either way for parts of Yucatan, Texas & Louisiana
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3944
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MichaelA]
      #91089 - Wed Aug 03 2011 11:04 PM

0z Model roundup, still a lot to come, hopefully some better data since some of the NOAA Gulfstream jet observational data were place into parts of them

The 0Z NAM is the first, and it now predicts landfall near Miami late Saturday.

0z GFS run -- Takes a hard right and goes across the Tiburon Peninsula in Haiti and stays almost due north and recurves before hitting NC. That doesn't seem all that likely.

Other 0Z model runs will start to show up in an hour or so.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91110 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:32 AM

Well, given that it's "intermission" and am waiting for a new recon fix, i'll throw this prediction out:

....after a slow pulsating crawl over Eastern Cuba, the weakened T.S. Emily maintains a stairstepping WNW motion, than stalls in the Florida Straights midway between the middle Keys and Cuban coast. Rapid deepening ensues, however due to upwelling after nearly 48 hours of practically no motion whatsoever, Emily's intensification caps out at 120 mph. Finally given the lack of any troughing and the S.E. CONUS ridge finally nudging eastward, Emily starts moving on an overall 290 heading at 5 knots. While Key West braces for direct impact, all the while many regions throughout the southern third of Florida have thus far received rainfall amounts exceeding 12", and up to 15" along the southeast coast. All the while all eyes from Cedar Key south to Sarasota brace for the long awaited northward tug of a weak shortwave dropping southward.......

Ok...., NOT really my prediction, however am not sure this would prove to be much less reasonable than those models calling for an Eastward shift in path and an expected nearly NNW motion to commence in the next 30 minutes!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: weathernet]
      #91120 - Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM

A good number of the models this morning are all east of Florida, which is always good to see in the morning, hopefully the trend back east continues.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: weathernet]
      #91125 - Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM

based on her track...weathernet's prediction is oddly the most likely... just moves west... pulls wnw ....looking for where she will make that eventual NW turn... could say through the upper keys into Florida Bay pumping rain up over southern florida and gets into the gulf looking for that eventual ne turn

who is to say that's not impossible

the movement of emily is throwing off the models accuracy
at some point that sharp ne turn out to sea will close, then what

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: LoisCane]
      #91126 - Thu Aug 04 2011 08:34 AM

Some of the 12Z models are back slightly to the west, but still do not show landfall.

Some model pages Raleigh Wx (Allan Huffman) -- Maue -- FSU


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 949
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91129 - Thu Aug 04 2011 09:34 AM

Want to blow your mind? Read the discussions posted on the site from Tampa, Miami and Key West forecasters discussing the forecasts into Saturday evening. The Key West is the most intriguing as he relies on GFS solution which opens the system into a wave. (Indeed it does, at least in the runs depicted on the FSU site). All this means to me right now is that Emily is not predictable, and won't be until the organization, re-organization cycles stop. Visually the system right now looks better than ever. Although still not consolidated, the convection clusters are at least closer to each other and seem to be gathering around a center, if only at some distances away. As yesterday was supposed to be a key day, today really should be a key day on the further genesis and future of this system.

--------------------
doug


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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Raleigh, NC 35.80N 78.74W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: doug]
      #91133 - Thu Aug 04 2011 10:48 AM

I am not sure about this storm at all. If you extrapolate the movement from yesterday and you follow the path you will see what appears to be a LL spin which is just off the Eastern tip of Jamaica.

Visible Sat.

This appears to be where the original LLC was before she "stalled" going into last night. I would only have to assume at that point that a new CoC formed under all this mess. Split brain syndrome again!

In looking at this, the GFS may be spot on and I think the open wave theory has a lot of substance right now. She was being blown appart by shear and outracing the convection and that still may be the case.
Thoughts?


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91139 - Thu Aug 04 2011 11:03 AM

Latest visibles and infared satellite shots show the center nearing Hispanola and with that a lot of dry air being sucked in towards the center of circulation. In fact it appears to me that in the latest infrared frame a significant amount of dry air is coming right off the mountains of Haiti.

I think the northward "climb" has begun finally and emily will move into the Mona straights, but only as a depression. After that a more northward turn is likely in response to the weakness shown on water vapor well East of the Florida peninsula.

I think Emily is going to be a non-event except for the flooding rains that Haiti does not need. Haiti will be pounded with this slow moving storm for quite awhile.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/...ive_vis_floater

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: stormtiger]
      #91141 - Thu Aug 04 2011 11:10 AM

My issue is with the trough coming off the eastern US and the effect the NHC is giving that on the track. That has pretty much already happenned from my observation, and the base of the trough is already NE of the center. In the wake of the trough is the expanding ridge over the SE US. The weakness between the two doe allow the system to filter up into the area near 25N/75W, but that will take until Friday evening at the earliest. By then the dynamic will be different. I would suspect the influence of the trough will only wane with time. I would place confidence in the track only through Friday p.m. Too many variables including intensity.

--------------------
doug


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hogrunr
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 153
Loc: Spring, TX 30.07N 95.51W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: stormtiger]
      #91142 - Thu Aug 04 2011 11:16 AM

Quote:

Latest visibles and infared satellite shots show the center nearing Hispanola and with that a lot of dry air being sucked in towards the center of circulation. In fact it appears to me that in the latest infrared frame a significant amount of dry air is coming right off the mountains of Haiti.

I think the northward "climb" has begun finally and emily will move into the Mona straights, but only as a depression. After that a more northward turn is likely in response to the weakness shown on water vapor well East of the Florida peninsula.

I think Emily is going to be a non-event except for the flooding rains that Haiti does not need. Haiti will be pounded with this slow moving storm for quite awhile.






The AVN is very difficult to discern movement from. It shows the convection shifting, but if you look at the RGB , the lower level circulation clouds are still moving west, with very little north component. Definitely some disruption among the heavy convection right now though.

I do agree though that time is waning for this system to latch onto the weakness to the NE, it will need to happen soon or the weakness will eventually disappear. Just not sure what to make of the models saying this system is going to turn for 3 days...and nothing happening. While the models can be very useful, there comes a point where they are no longer "right" once/if the system does turn. It's like saying that if I get up and say it is going to rain everyday, that I predicted the weather once it finally does rain


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: hogrunr]
      #91145 - Thu Aug 04 2011 12:01 PM

12Z GFS today takes Emily over Cuba, weakens it into an open tropical wave, then into south Florida as a large rainstorm.

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Wingman51
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Reged: Tue
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.41N 81.24W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91152 - Thu Aug 04 2011 01:28 PM

Just a totally uneducated question - Isn't there something about storms that get by 72 W being storms that hit the US?

What is the difference between Charlie (2004) and Emily at this point


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: Wingman51]
      #91155 - Thu Aug 04 2011 02:20 PM

Charley went over western Cuba as a category 1 hurricane before entering the Gulf, it disrupted it a bit, but not all that much. The terrain on Haiti is much more rugged, and at a much higher altitude. Tropical Storms and Mountains are oil and water since they are primarily surface features.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91170 - Thu Aug 04 2011 07:52 PM

Models on Emily are still ongoing:

It goes from the tame: 18Z GFS -- Reforming north of the Bahamas around 30 hours from now.

18Z NOGAPS - brings it back around 24 hours from now.

To more crazy 18z HWRF -- to a hurricane very close to the coast off Jupiter florida in 30 hours

So that increases the chances that Emily is not quite done. Still thankfully offshore of Florida in all those cases though.


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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 99
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: MikeC]
      #91172 - Thu Aug 04 2011 10:13 PM

I dont know if I am seeing things or not. Does anyone else see a LL vort just south of the border between Haiti and the Dom Rep? It also looks like convection is starting to fire over this same location.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: M.A.]
      #91175 - Thu Aug 04 2011 11:12 PM

Well I see a weak remnant MLC in the west central border area of Haiti and the Dominican Republic - its just about stationary - and I can see a weak LLC near 17N 72.8W, but thats about it. Loads of convergence areas - some of which are firing small areas of convection.
Cheers,
ED


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91203 - Sat Aug 06 2011 10:57 AM

It looks to me from Radar and Visible Sat this morning that emily is consolidating its cloud mass around the area near northern tip of Andros Island. The rain and clouds look like they are slowly expanding towards the Southeast Florida coast.
Whether or not this indicates a strenghtening or movement remains to be seen. To me a slight movement to the NNW could be happening.


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