MikeC
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4:45 PM EDT 6 August 2011 Update
Recon aircraft found enough of a center to classify the remnants of Emily as a tropical Depression, and it currently is moving north and is expected to begin moving northeast tonight. The center is located just to the west of little Abaco island. No watches or warnings have been put up, and the rain appears to be mostly in the Bahamas, and for the most part, stay away from the Florida Coastline.
This coming week the topic will likely be the wave exiting the African coastline, this has multiple model support for a long track storm, that isn't a sure bet to recurve at the moment.
11:45 AM EDT 6 August 2011 Update
The Remains of Emily have finally begun consolidating around a more dominant center area over the past 12-18 hours, and a definitive Low has formed just north of Andros Island - about 140 miles east-southeast of Miami, Fl.
At this time surface pressures do not yet seem to be falling much if at all in the area, but then the available buoys, ships, personal weather stations and the like are not even within a 50 mile radius of this guestimated center. The appearance on satellite and radar do suggest that a depression could be forming today.
An Air Force plane is scheduled to investigate this area this afternoon, and so we should have a clearer picture of what is going on at that time. Either way, given that the Remains of Emily have "jumped," and reformed cohesively a good clip to the northeast of where it was being tracked just yesterday, the odds of it affecting Florida directly have come down - and considering its present location it is no surprise that models now forecast whatever is out there to recurve out to sea. However, given the Low's very close proximity to the state, not to mention several islands and many boating interests, it is worth watching; it is also worth noting that less than a day's worth of deviation from those model's forecasts could easily take more inclement weather inland over south Florida.
-Ciel
4:45 PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
The last official advisory on Emily has been issued, no more advisories will be issued on the system unless it regenerates, (not terribly likely, perhaps a 1 in 4 chance of happening). Still flooding rains are going on in Haiti now. We'll watch the remains of the system for another day.
The remains are forecast to spread toward the west northwest over eastern Cuba an enter the Bahamas, similar to earlier forecast tracks. If it were to regenerate, it probably wouldn't be until tomorrow night or Saturday.
2:45 PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
Latest Best Track file from the National Weather Service now references Emily as a wave again, it looks very likely that Emily will be downgraded at 5PM.
2PM EDT 4 August 2011 Update
Emily's center of circulation has landed on Haiti, and the disruption in outflow was nearly immediate. Hispaniola has a good shot to weaken the system further, and possibly back to an open wave (below depression) status. This would be good news for Florida as it would bring more rain and less wind to the coast.
There is less than a 50/50 shot it can regain after it passes Hispaniola, it will still need to be watched to see how much of it remains.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Emily may be finally moving west northwest based on recon reports overnight, and although continually bursting with convection, the system has been affected by land, dry air, and some shear near Cuba keeping the northern side of the system relatively weak. However, the western side of the storm has gained more convection overnight, and the general core of the system is much better than yesterday.
Still the northern side of the system is bringing very large amounts of rain to Haiti and the Dominican Republic that will continue through most of today.
The current forecast track is basically unchanged, and the idea that not too much is known until the system gets out of the Caribbean is still there. There remains a small chance the system dissipates entirely before going further north, but it still seems unlikely.
The good news for Florida this morning is that the forecast models, with the NOAA jet data, has shifted to the east, lessening the chances for a Florida landfall a good bit. Odds do not favor a landfall along the east coast, but the chance still remains, if the move north has begun (which recon may verify later today) the chances lessen greatly. Odds favor the system stays offshore, and brings strong surf to the east Coast of Florida, but the system itself will likely move through the Bahamas as a Tropical Storm..
If for some reason the system stays on a more westerly course today, the possibility a tropical storm watch goes up for south Florida still exists, but appears unlikely at present since most of the tropical storm force winds would be on the eastern side. It would be late today or tomorrow for watches primarily because of the storm's current slow movement. Florida must continue to monitor it until a definitive northerly motion has begun, and the system exits the Caribbean. There is still an unusually large lack of clarity with this system.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
Long term Recording of Long Range Radar off Miami for Emily Remnants.
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Animated Model Plot of Emily
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Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 06 2011 04:51 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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Looking at Emily's last couple of IR frames, outflow looks to be improving and the classic comma shape appears to be developing with what appears to be a COC just south and slightly east of the Haiti/Dominican Republic border. In the graphic below, you can clearly see what appears to be a comma like feature spreading out west of the COC.
Storm looks to be intensifying a little, question is: is it actually getting better organized as appears on satellite IR? Given it's past behavior, I wouldn't say yes until we have a recent microwave pass or a recon in the storm.
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Owlguin
Verified CFHC User
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I'd agree, and it's barely moving if at all.
Edited by Owlguin (Thu Aug 04 2011 07:25 AM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Based on the long Water Vapor loop it appears Emily is moving generally westward along south of Hispaniola as if to avoid it, with the north side a bit affected by the island, the rest, like you said is looking a lot better. It's still fighting the twin nature from days back, and until that influence is completely purged it will likely struggle. The dry air and shear near Cuba aren't having too much of an affect. The water vapor hints at a weakness in the ridge to the north (East of the northern Bahamas), but it's not clear if Emily will go for it yet or not.
Still no obvious move northward since it's been south of Hispaniola.since when it was near 70W. Water vapor remains probably my favorite satellite view to see whats going on around the system. Emily is expanding, though, which has made tracking movement difficult ever since the LLC went back under convection.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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The 8am intermediate advisory puts the pressure down 1mb to 1005mb, and Emily is meandering. however, recon are in the system now and have just reported a central pressure down to 1003mb.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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I agree the WV is the tool of choice to see the synoptic pattern immediately surrounding the system. Right now that picture tells a story of the weakness in the Atlantic ridge north and east of the islands and the cyclonic flow covering the Carribean to the west. There seems to be two choices: the system begins to move toward the weakness in the Atlantic, or is pulled wnw toward the weakness between the Carribean ULL and the ridge over the SE US which lies in the Florida straits. There is little in the way of cloud movement north and west of the system to see how those flows are working but a few images did pop up NW of the system and they seem to be moving NW toward the Florida straits. ( Drop sonds will answer these questions later today probably). I am not saying that is predictive, but it is the type of immedite visual evidence to watch for that can signal a future track.
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doug
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adam s
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I have no confidence with the models of Emily. The models keep changing and not any model called for a stalling or stationary system. If emily moves west It will get closer to the United States. Where Emily goes now is anybody's guess. I dont think the knows where Emily will go.
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JMII
Weather Guru
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Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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This is twice now that Emily has stalled despite the models saying she should go NW, thus their guidance is suspect. Outflow looks like its improving and the ridge over the SE US appears to be weaker today. The core of Emily is still a mess, not sure if its the mountains, the shear or the dry air, but all convection N to NW of the storm is gone. Hard to gauge any motion due to lack of any defining center like structure. Its still a complete toss up as what is going to happen, the good news is this slow motion means she is still several days away from the US and unless she steers clear of two land masses one can assume a weak storm is all we'll see.
However I wouldn't be shocked to see her shoot the gap and intensify, then just as suddenly be swept out to sea. Or drag west over the Cuba and die off completely. Currently she appears to be stuck against the shear that she was fighting yesterday, but there is a weak spot ahead (about the 2PM Friday forecast position)... so it looks like we have another 24 hours of wait-n-see before any firm assessment can be made.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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I didnt see a vortex for a 1003mb .. you might of been looking at yesterdays vortex from last night.
I think Emily is actually worse off than 12-24hrs ago. Arc clouds being blown out... less
of a W wind (but still there) also no concentration of T-Storms... I would suspect the pressure
is up to about 1008mbs the way it looks to me right now.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Satellite imagery seems to suggest a WNW movement has begun.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Quote:
Satellite imagery seems to suggest a WNW movement has begun.
I'm not seeing that just yet. It still looks to be more generally westward on the latest floater vis loop.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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danielw
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Per Discussion one of the overnight flights had avionics problems. And it appears that they may have slipped the backup aircraft in for a while. I see a short mission.
RichB was referring to the following measurement:
11:37:30Z 17.133N 71.883W (~ 4,984 feet) altitude 1003.1 mb extrapolated pressure(~ 29.62 inHg)
Winds from 321° at 5 knots (From the NW at ~ 5.8 mph)
The next 30 second observation indicates they passed through the Center. Wind shift from NW to SW
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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NHC likes the Sat presentation of the system compared to yesterday at this time.. I agree.. but not from 12hrs ago. I think the pressure is very generous at 1004mb until recon goes in. I would think it's at 1007-1008mbs.
I'm hesitant also on putting up TS watches for Florida (till 5pm report)..after all..a TS Watch is just that.. A Watch would mean conditions could support a TS in that area within 60hrs. (if I can remember the change from 48-60 now..
Anyways..cant wait for next recon.
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danielw
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Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Warning:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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ahh okay. Yes I remember now... brain drained.. lol. I wasnt 100% on the TS watches if they increased slightly.
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MikeC
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Nothing has really changed since this mornings update, until the storm clears the Caribbean it's mostly a guessing game. The western side of the storm is fairly weak, so it could get as close as 40-50 miles offshore of Florida to the east and be fairly tame outside (a little squally, but not bad).
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danielw
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Quote:
ahh okay. Yes I remember now... brain drained.. lol. I wasnt 100% on the TS watches if they increased slightly.
Emily is quite the Brain Drainer, and Nerve wrecker, too. Almost as much as a television drama.
BTW. I'm watching a low level swirl in the E GOM. About 130 mile WSW of Tampa. It's one of many swirls in the lower levels right now in the GOM and Caribbean.
Another is located near the Dry Tortugas. And three swirls are visible around Jamaica.
Winds in the E GOM are from the NE at a decent speed so no worries there. Right now.
It appears that the leading edge of the tropical wave associated with Emily is approaching SE Andros Island in the Bahamas. That's the large island SE of Miami.
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adam s
Verified CFHC User
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Looking at this image Emily is definitly falling apart. If Emily survives another 24 hours that will be alot. All bets are off with this storm.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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TBH I don't see any circulation with this system anymore.. its more in the 850mb and above and not all the way to the surface. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1010mb low pressure but NO LLC in the next recon and 5pm update.
I say there is a 60% chance this will be a trough over the next 12hrs 40% stay a weak Storm... near 0% of this getting stronger than what it is for the next 24hrs.
Main factor this had was the mid level circulation was behind the LLC... at times they got close but then the LLC weakend. There were a lot of lower pressure points in this system.. Although 1 had a LLC... others 150 miles away would have a pressure drop matching the LLC and disrupting the LLC causing it to weaken.. just too many LLV causing pressure drops around the Main LLC
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Ed Dunham
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Note that all of the bulletins are posted as drop-down windows at the top of the Main Page. We do this to eliminate the need to post these bulletins in the various Forum threads. Note also that you can copy a small portion of a particular bulletin in your post if you are going to discuss something about it.
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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What may have been the midlevel center, (and IS the circulation center around which all the convection was centered) went across the southern peninsula of the DR about an hour ago and immediately the convection began to wane. This circulation center is on a path to stay inland across Hatai. Now it is only a question of what will emerge on the western side and then what.
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doug
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Its like a repeat of the last 2 days, but this time looks like the mid level spin is moving north over the DR, and the LLC is dying out. The MLC is moving at a good clip now so it will be north of the island in the not too distant future and we will see if it can drill down to the surface then if it survives
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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JMII
Weather Guru
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Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Just as the upper levels started to look favorable the lower level inflow has been cut off by the island. Emily looks to be running out of steam... the IR loop shows a much weaker storm, almost back to depression status. Wondering if we'll have a "jumper" where their entire circulation falls apart only to reform in completely separate location further down the road. Back on advisory #5A the had her as a depression at this point (2PM Thurs) but that assumed she was off the island and trying to regroup. Right now her survival depends on getting further north (to warm water quickly) as any more west (even NW) motion puts her on top of Cuba tomorrow and she is clearly not strong enough for that path.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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adam s
Verified CFHC User
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Emily looks like an open wave on radar. The center looks open. Does anyone think that Emily can still be a threat for the bahamas?
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Latest Best Track file from the National Weather Service now references Emily as a wave again, it looks very likely that Emily will be downgraded at 5PM. Hispaniola appears to have done in yet another storm.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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TBH.... the best chance for this to make a comeback would be the LLV just north east of Jamaica that is racing away (and came from Emily..though doubt it was the actual LLC). seems to pick up on this as it did in the past run and take this north starting Friday between Jamaica and Caymans and crossing Cuba Friday night into Saturday... UKMet has a simular run.. probably why it shows dramatic streak positions deminstrating its picking up redevelopment of a wave in a 24 period. This also take its north then west. simular.
So with the decaying midlevel center over SW Haiti... Best Bet would be for this to reform (somewhat if it does) ala between Jamaica-Caymans on Friday heading NNW.
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
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If Emily dissipates and becomes an open wave later today (which is looking more likely) I don't see her having a good chance of regeneration/redevelopment. The models that showed her falling apart seemed to have picked up on something that I missed. I expected weakening over Hispaniola, but unless the LLC develops elsewhere once offshore, I don't think we will see much more of Emily. Also, if the LLC were to redevelop, it would likely be farther to the north and/or east. Either way, I think Florida's chance of direct impacts is looking lower this afternoon.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
Edited by WesnWylie (Thu Aug 04 2011 03:05 PM)
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B_from_NC
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Loc: Raleigh, NC 35.80N 78.74W
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Agreed 100%. But it just smashed into Jamaica as some convection was building. Lets see if that and the interaction with Cuba later on really puts this one to bed for good.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Scott has an excellent grasp on the situation.
Here is a graphic to go along with that. Emily's high cloud tops over the mid/ upper level Center area can be seen on the Cuban radar at Gran Piedra, Cuba.
I have placed markers on what I believe is the center top and the latest position.
Copyright © 1997-2011. INSMET ® Todos los derechos reservados
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 04 2011 03:34 PM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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What an incredible storm. In the 10.5 hours since I left for work immediately following my last post, Emily has gone from looking really good on IR to complete collapse.
NHC has discontinued advisories and is now calling the storm "Remnants of Emily" in their Atlantic header..
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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She really looked good early this morning on the IR sat shots. Hmmm
Do you think She'll be back?
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MikeC
Admin
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The mid levels still look good, but it really has collapsed otherwise. will probably give it a 50% chance or so on the 8PM outlook. Maybe tomorrow you can tell if it will come back or not, personally I'm leaning toward it not.
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Raleigh, NC 35.80N 78.74W
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An intersting thought...
If you take away all of the convective clouds in this loop and just look at the wave itself, its enormous. It stretches now from the southern tip of FLA almost all the way to the South American coast.
4km Visible
Am I correct in stating that the larger the wave the tougher/longer it takes to get spinning?
B
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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The biggest problem this system has had from the beginning is the lack of vertical stacking. The MLC was constantly competing with the LLC for dominance. That being said, the mid level system still looks to be in tact and will emerge on the north coast late tonight. I think there is a good shot at development if it makes it there intact. I think what was the LLC is done as far as anything happening with it
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
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After what we have seen from Emily so far, I would not doubt for a second that something will fester during the DM. I believe the MLC still looks deciently intact over the center of Hispanola. My guess, if she regenerates, it would be somewhere near the Turks and Cacios area and becoming a fish spinner from there. Emily has been a very strange entity, boom to bust several times. I guess we all enjoyed the show though.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Several of the 18Z model runs from tonight were hinting at regeneration between 20-38 hours, but none are making landfall in Florida. Although the HWRF is very close. I went over a few in the Forecast Lounge.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Wave axis is slightly tilted... LLV is now near 18.9N and 76.8W moving about 290dg at 16mph..with trough axis heading NNE from there to 21.5N 75.5W
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Talk about being ripped apart! Looking at the Floater unenhanced IR and the RGB loops, it is readily evident that the mid-level circulation went due North over western DR while the LLC virtually dissipated. There does seem to be a small LLC with some limited convection near 17.4N; 71.8W, But I wouldn't think that will survive for very long.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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1AM eastern... estimated LLV is located near 19.3N and 77.5N
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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As of 0307 EDT, is anyone seeing anythng at 19.6N 74.7W? I think I am seeing the remnants of a LLC.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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IR sat pics this AM are showing what is left of the LLC just off the SE coast of Cuba and the MLC over the SE Bahamas. Which of those areas may regenerate or not is the question for now.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
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Well, the "entertainer fromerly known as Prince.....ummm I mean EMILY" has left the building..... or has she?
Looking at morning vis. satellite, there appears to me a large very weak center of low level vorticity centered at about 22N and 78W. Hard to tell, but would appear to be moving at around 290. There is some convection firing up over Cuba and seemingly associated with this overall area, and it would appear to me to likely be the remnant LLC of Emily. Looking at Water Vapor, most of the dry air is gone and the atmosphere looks to have moistened up. Upper air models from 6Z would seem to indicate that the area would be conducive for development ( for a developed system ). Just not sure if there remains enough of a structure ( say perhaps from 850mb down to the surface ) to allow for development to occur. If the surface reflection were to continue to move WNW into the SE Gulf, upper air would appear to be less conducive. I would put a low ( but possible ) "questionmark" on any real development here, other than some slight re-organization of a weak low that may be enough to throw some good precipitation over parts of S. Florida, the Keys, and Central Cuba.
I am less confident that the remnant mid level feature of Emily ( over the Bahamas ) will develop due to lacking the low level inflow. This feature might simply just get pulled "up and out" to the NE.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Looking at the latest Floater RGB Loop, I'm seeing multiple small LL eddies in the region, but it looks like the actual LL wave axis is here:
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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correct.. and LLV on top of the trough came off the coast line of Cuba about 9am eastern.. its located
at the top of the trough near 22.8N and 78.8W. Movement of the trough is to the NW... and until the
LLV (that the models want to use to develop back into Emily (though only weak-moderate storm)) breaks
off the trough.. it will continue NW and then NNW past 80W...if the LLV breaks off.. it will move N quickly along
79-80W then NNE once it gets past 26N.
So how much the pressure drops at the top of the trough to create a LLC and how fast will determine
how far west this gets in the next 12-24hs
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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It seems to be firing and pulling in some convection right there.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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BayCoGator
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Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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23.3, 78.3 moving roughly WNW? Is that what you're seeing?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 384
Loc: Port Orange, FL 29.11N 81.02W
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Right about there yes
We will see what it can do in the next 12-24 hours
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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More like 23.3 and 79.1 .. I think you are seeing the arc of the flare up on the NE side of the vortex that is getting sheared...
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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It appears that the models are picking up on the mid-level circulation (what's left of it) where the most convection is occurring near 23.0N; 75.0W with some rather aggressive while others only develop a weak system east of Florida (a couple even ignore it altogether). I guess the next 24 hours will tell one way or another.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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I wouldn't trust the models right now in where the location is... the direction it moves will be obviously
N then NNE past 26N.. but location is getting better defined down there 23.3N and 79.1W
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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23 / 79 is where I saw a mini spin, but the whole area has a large rotation to it, with several smaller spins embedded inside at various levels. If any of these can get their act together Emily might reform, but...
Quote:
others only develop a weak system east of Florida
I think this is the key statement. Anything that develops out of this area will be very weak and most likely too far north to have any real impact. There is still plenty of shear out there so don't expect much to occur till that dies off (tomorrow?). Emily's entire life the convection was sheared (mostly to the SE) and that trend continues. Ironically to me it looks like the remaining blob of moisture is following the last track guidance fairly well.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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center is elongated now E-W as its trying to become a LLC off of the trough. Currently its from
23.5N 79W- 23.5N 78.7W drifting NNW
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adam s
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 20
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Emily is showing signs of life and looks like a tropical depression on radar. Does anyone think Emily can make a south Florida Landfall?
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I don't want to dive into too much speculation on what a system might do when it has yet to reform - especially on the Main Page. Its somewhat like putting the cart before the horse since Emily's remnants still will require much more organization before it could be classified as a TD. At 05/18Z, ran the BAM suite of models using 23N 78W, but they nudged the position northwest a bit too much when assigning the model input coordinates. At 12Z the center point was at about 22.4N 75.5W and at 19Z the approximate position was 22.6N 77.3 - so a WNW movement at 15 knots. Since then, more convection has developed near/at the center and perhaps more of a northwestward motion as a result. I did notice a spin further west, but convection never did catch on in that area. The entire wave still has at least three separate swirls, so Emily remains true to form (or better stated as 'lack of form') but reformation chances are still on the high side.
ED
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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
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Ed, speaking of the multiple vortices.... I see the mid level east of the Bahamas and the LL vortice just north of Cuba. My question would be, What effect or detrement does the mid level vort have on the LL vort? Due to proximity would the mid level have almost like a shearing effect and deter any development on the LLC?
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It could, but the low-level circulation can take advantage of the warm SSTs in the area (31C) to aid in its further development. The MLC could build down to the surface - normally a much slower process. This gives the LLC an advantage, i.e., it can develop faster, become stronger and eventually create a new 'stacked' system that would overpower the old MLC. Of far more importance, the old MLC is currently experiencing about 25 knots of northeasterly shear. The LLC about 10 knots, so it has a much better chance, IF Emily redevelops, of becoming the predominant center.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 06/00Z, placed the low level swirl of the remnants of Emily at 22.8N 77.2W and these were the coordinates that were used for the 00Z model runs - and these coordinates represent a good position fix. For the past 12 hours the movement has been to the northwest at 6 knots, however for the past few hours the system has been stationary. Note that the convective activity has been on the decline for the past few hours so any additional development is on hold for awhile.
ED
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.66N 81.21W
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NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1235 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
EMILYS REMNANTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST...
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z COMPROMISE
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS AND BRINGS ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INTO FLORIDA WHICH THEN SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE LOWER KISSIMMEE RIVER VALLEY/JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z CANADIAN/18Z AND 00Z /00Z RECURVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKER OUT TO SEA THAN THE 12Z . THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOLUTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WHICH FITS THE HISTORY OF EMILY SO FAR...SIMILAR TO A 00Z NAM/12Z COMPROMISE...SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS CHOSEN...THE SURFACE SIGNATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOST BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FROM A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STANDPOINT.. .BUT THINKS OTHERWISE.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Current Miami radar base velocity is indicating winds near 30 knots in an area over Northern Andros Island, Bahamas
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2011 09:30 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Long term Recording Long Range Radar off Miami. Note I don't expect much from the remnants of Emily if it reforms it is staying offshore enough that most of Florida will not see any rain from it.
Remember the radar at that far out is showing more mid level than low level, it looks like redevelopment isn't happening today. Maybe tomorrow, if at all. Some small short showers along the very eastern coastline will be about the extent of Emily's remnants to Florida.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Like Mike said... 
The estimated top and bottom of the radar beam can be estimated using the link below.
At 120nm the bottom of the beam is roughly 10,000 feet or about the 650mb level. And the top is roughly 22,740 feet or near the 400mb level.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2011 10:46 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Emilys circulation died out south of Haiti.. LLV raced out and was north of Cuba Friday evening. A new LLC
is trying to develop just north of Nassau. I think they will find a Closed circulation when recon gets there. I'm
also seeing banding trying to develop on the southwest side of the circulation. I feel this looks better now than
it ever really did... but the pressures are not as low.. say 1009-1010mb. Probably a TD by 5pm at 60% doubt
a TS unless recon can find some winds around 40mph
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
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Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).
EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.
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Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Aug 06 2011 12:06 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).
EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.
It might not be vertically stacked, but all of the evidence I'm seeing indicates that it has regained enough organization to justify re-initiating advisories - especially given that Emily is headed right for Miami, and isn't that far away. The MIA radar shows a weak circulation, but a circulation nonetheless, with the majority of the convection in the south and southeast quadrants.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The recon plane from keesler AFB is on the way, I still don't see anything happening this afternoon at least. Watch it do a cyclonic loop out in the Atlantic next week to drive people watching it too closely crazy.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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There still seems to be a lot of shear (or, the shear is back), so you're probably right. Every time convection tries to fire up on the other side (north) of the apparent LLC it dies off quickly.
Edit: Up to 80% on the 2pm (which is not very meaningful given that recon in literally enroute). The is sticking by the "out to sea" forecast, even though the system itself is moving due west toward Miami from all indications 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 06 2011 01:48 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The radar from Klystron 9, Tampa Bay, shows the moisture from the storm moving towards the U.S. but whatever center there might be appears to be staying put. I am not sure itis the center but maybe just the area outside the radar field.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Quote:
Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?
It's very difficult to determine motion of a developing system on radar, I think - to me, movement looks almost due west at a very slow drift, with the reforming LLC due east of West Palm Beach.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Have to agree Hugh looks to be just south of Freeport in the Bahamas, roughly duee east of Palm Beach. If anything maybe WNW but I have to say I do not see any northwest or north movement, Recon is just now exiting from Floirda peninsula near Palm beach should get some info in an hour. Heres a link to level II radar data from Miami.
http://www.aprsfl.net/radar/index.php?site=KAMX&mode=dz&animated=no
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M.A.
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
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The storm that never really dies! Reminds me of the movie Christine. Convection continues to blossom. Looks to have a WNW movement. Banding is becoming more pronounced in the SE region. I would expect a upgrade to a depression @ the 5pm advisory. If it does keep this track to the WNW, it will bring some much needed rain to much of the state. This is what we all ask for as a drought buster a depression or minimal TS. Just what the doctor ordered!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida 30.51N 86.50W
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Based upon recon reports of west winds south of Grand Bahama, along with observations I've heard reported elsewhere, it's just a matter of what kind of winds the recon finds, whether it's a depression or a storm again. Of course, until we get an actual vortex report, nothing is certain.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Yes initial obs looking at plane there appears to be low level center along and just south of the central Grand Bahama coast.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1020
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Recon has definitely been finding some sort of LLC, and it has been moving steadily generally northward - now having crossed over Little Abaco Island. Recon is finding that much of the surface wind is still soft, at under 25 mph; however, Station Rocky Bay, Elbow Cay, ABACO, located at roughly 26.5N 77W, has been measuring fairly regular winds of between 30 and 41.4 mph as the center of Emily passed by to its west over the past two hours.
Edit to add that there does still appear to be multiple vortices. Not exactly a very well organized system (as if it ever has been).
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 06 2011 04:23 PM)
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Center appears to be right over Grand Bahama, moving quickly NW and basically shearing itself in the process. I think we are in for a soggy evening from Ft Pierce south to Miami. It just started raining pretty good here in NW Broward (Ft Lauderdale), not an outer band but part of the overall circulation as this rain came in from the N instead the normal W off the Everglades or SE on the ocean breeze.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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And she is back as a 30 mph TD!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
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