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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Nate) , Major: 28 (Maria) Florida - Any: 38 (Irma) Major: 38 (Irma)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Atlantic Wave
      #91330 - Wed Aug 17 2011 11:46 AM

A tropical wave, not yet an Invest area, is located near 13N 35W at 16/15Z moving westward at 15 knots. The wave currently has limited convection but a large circulation envelope and this system could eventually become a significant entity.
ED


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Atlantic Wave [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91332 - Wed Aug 17 2011 04:51 PM

This wave is getting a lot of model support and if the models are correct it is likely not to be a fishspinner.

It's very early now, and this season the models ahve not been really accurate in regards to forecasting cyclonic development and strengthening; but by this weekend folks in the SE US need to be keeping an eye on this disturbance as it enters the Carribean(per the models).


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KPHG85
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1
Re: Atlantic Wave [Re: stormtiger]
      #91334 - Wed Aug 17 2011 05:48 PM


This may be the model support your talking about.



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM
TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD
FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS
THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF
SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.


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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 73
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Atlantic Wave [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91342 - Thu Aug 18 2011 10:02 AM

The wave in question was just labelled 97L.

Like I said yesterday it needs to be watched by folks in the SE US.

It's very early, and the trend has been our friend this year (no big storms); but it's the time of the year and that Atlantic ridge set up is leaving florida unprotected.


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 855
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Atlantic Wave [Re: stormtiger]
      #91343 - Thu Aug 18 2011 10:35 AM

The model runs are not very encouraging for intensity and location right now. We definitely need to watch this one closely. Checking my preparedness plans now.

--------------------
Michael
2017: 15/9/4
2017 Actual: 15/10/6


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Atlantic Wave [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91349 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:21 AM

Note that Invest 97L now has a thread in the Forecast Lounge for any additional forecasts on this system since this Forum is primarily just to note various features in the basin.
ED


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