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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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weathernet
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Irene Forecast Lounge
      #91345 - Thu Aug 18 2011 10:51 AM

The Atlantic wave at about 40W this morning, has now been officially tagged as 97L. Currently the air to its north and west remain dry as the system briskly treks westward. Of particular concern however is that the MJO pattern is to soon shift, so to favor the Atlantic and I believe that the Saharan dust layer will abate significantly as this occurs. Noticing the water temp charts, the center of this rather broad envelope system is presently over 27 degree ( C ) water, and by the time it reaches 50 W., will have moved over 29 degree ( C ) water temps.

The GFS model support for this particular system has been persistant, to say the least. 7-9 days off should not be looked too as a reliable reflection of "what will be", however one cannot ignore the persistance in the run after run forecast of a significant hurricane potentially impacting Florida. Of greater interest however, would be the most recent 0Z run of the Euro which now somewhat matches the GFS long range forecast track and for the first time with this particular disturbance, shows intensification as well.

This system does not look to be any threat for any near term rapid development, yet may be a depression or Tropical Storm as it moves over warmer water in its approach to the Leeward Islands in a few days. Greater than the threat of possible US impact, might be the manner of relative quick intensification that the long range maps depict once 97L possibly nears Puerto Rico, Hispanola, and/or the southeasternmost Bahamas. The fact that this Atlantic Hurricane season has thus far only "pumped out" Tropical Storms and all the while, none thus far have reached Hurricane status, might be far more indicative of prevailing upper level conditions and especially the dry air in place. As we now move into the "meat" of the season, those conditions are likely to abate.

(Since long range model discussions belong in the Lounge, this is a good post to start that thread.)

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 20 2011 06:41 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91347 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:11 AM

The large wave area in the Central Atlantic was designated 97L today.

This GFS and Euro models for the wave in the Atlantic has been persistently moving toward the US east coast, but particularly Florida, Gulf, and South Carolina for the past several days. And the trend continues this morning. With the latest 6z GFS bringing it in near Key West on August 27 after it traverses the northern Caribbean.

Since it may travel over the islands it may be weakened by then.

The euro isn't solid on development (destroys it based on land interaction), so another weak system crossing the Atlantic westward seems the most likely at the moment, and will be one to watch for late next week, but by no means is it a definite danger to Florida. Those in the Caribbean will want to watch it very closely however.

It's something to monitor, but without a developed system you have to avoid the hype, and it seems more likely that the system will head further westward and may be able to enter the Gulf or stay in the Caribbean as based on some of the other models.


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stormtiger
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91350 - Thu Aug 18 2011 11:40 AM

To date the trend has been our friend, storms have not deepened and we've watched the models over rate system after system.

However, as it has been pointed out climatalogically the meat of the season is here. The set up is changing and this wave could be the real deal so it needs to be watched.

The GFS has it fairly weak until the Carribean where it shows intensification and a bout with Hispanola or Puerto Rico depending on the run you look at. The upper air pattern on both the GFS and the Euro indicate a weakness over Florida in 5 days or so.

Of course it's early, all we have is a broad unorganized wave and things will surely change. The pattern is of concern and everything else is speculative right now. For instance, the islands could tear apart whatever is there.

I think we'll get a better idea of conditions this weekend.

Edited by stormtiger (Thu Aug 18 2011 12:34 PM)


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: stormtiger]
      #91355 - Thu Aug 18 2011 05:18 PM

Let me remind everyone that the models consistently did NOT intensify Emily even though it looked to everyone watching like it should have, so the models haven't been bullish on all the systems. The fact that the GFS has been consistent in several runs is significant

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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stormtiger
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91357 - Thu Aug 18 2011 06:10 PM

I believe the GFS and the Euro both are of major conccern for the US.

But there is plenty of time to watch and observe.

So far it is August 19th and we have had no hurricanes; yet we have had 7 named storms. That is not likely to change in the near term.

The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 14th. While we have had a lot of storms the birth of the first hurricane will in all probability be a week late maybe more.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: stormtiger]
      #91358 - Thu Aug 18 2011 07:38 PM

Conditions appear ripe for a change in the north Atlantic and SSTs are on the rise. The GFS has been fairly reliable so far, but it is still to early to tell. I would expect by Sunday the models will have a better grip on this.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #91361 - Thu Aug 18 2011 09:23 PM

Based on the current track. 97L should encounter 29C SST's near 49W. Or late tomorrow. Four of the 7 Intensity models bring the storm to Tropical Storm at that time. Using the 18Z models from today. Thursday.
Ocean heat content doubles at the 49W longitude. From the current < 25 KJcm-2 to > 50 KJcm-2.

Super long range models are varied. From landfall in the Galveston,Tx area back to the east including the Florida Panhandle. I've only checked the GFSLR and ECMWF..


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #91368 - Fri Aug 19 2011 07:14 AM

97L is still struggling, and 98L behind it actually may develop first. The name will depend on what happens with TD#8, if it becomes a Tropical Storm or not.

A surprisingly large amount of the models take it across the northeastern Caribbean islands, and the longer range ones (GFS and Euro) Imply some sort of South Florida (Euro with South through Miami August 27th out through Daytona) or Gulf activity (GFS through Western Cuba into the Gulf and eventually the Florida Panhandle August 28th).

Neither are all that reliable at the long range, but they have been fairly consistent with some sort of threat to Florida or the Gulf coasts for late next week on the model runs since this past Monday.

Now for what's going on visually with the system, it's a very broad area that has yet to really organize, which would imply it going further westward in general. It still doesn't appear like it could develop until sometime next week if at all. Thought on the general path and conditions jives with the shorter range models, but longer range really depends on if the system gets organized or not.

The bottom line to this is that there is some potential to have some sort of system near Florida or the Gulf late next week and to keep tabs on what's going on later, especially if a storm actually develops. The wave is expected to start getting itself slowly together later today, but probably not make it to a tracked storm status for a few days,


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91369 - Fri Aug 19 2011 10:11 AM

NHC has increased 97L to 40% likely to develope in 48hrs. The convection has increased and it looks like the dry air is retreating slightly. I dont see this as a gulf storm due to the heights in the SW US. The other thing is the ULL to the NW of 97L is forecast to weaken but shows no sign of doing so as of yet. That will move the system a little more wnw in time. Its all about when it develops and how quickly as to the track.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MichaelA
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91371 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 AM

97L is nearly surrounded by dry air for now, so development is going to be slow to occur. The model runs are fairly consistent from run to run in developing it once it enters the Caribbean and taking it as a major storm toward central Cuba in 6 - 7 days. Of course, all that will depend on if and when 97L does develop and by how much.

--------------------
Michael
2014: 8/2/0
2014 Actual: 8/6/2


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weathernet
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91374 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:59 AM

I too, see 97L "moistening up" this morning. Given the added heat content off the SST's, I would guess we will basically see a steady state of increasing coverage area. I cannot stress enough how large this system's overall envelope appears to be. It really is fortunate that a rapid spin up is not anticipated, and that development ( should it in fact occur ), likely not result in the system being designated a depression much sooner than Sunday morning. That much is good news. The bad news is that as this system evolves, its overall size could pose serious flood risk to Puerto Rico and Hispanola, especially if it tracks directly over or just south of these islands.

Having just taken a look at all the models this morning, there seems to be little question as to the basic course and motion over at least the short to mid range of time. Nearly all of the dynamic models and the global models, pretty much advertise a tight cluster of tracks that certainly indicate that the sytsem will pass close to ( if not over ) Puerto Rico and Hispanola. Whether that means just to the south or just to the north still remains within any margin of error. How much mountainous land is traversed prior to any possible threat to the Bahamas, Yucatan, or the U.S. obviously plays into later intensity.

Here is my take on the present set of circumstances - As I look at the broader picture ( literally ), there is little doubt that 97L is on the western edge of what appears to be an overall very large surge of the easterlies. On visable satellite, it would appear to me that in association with 97L, a huge lazily rotating area of Altocumulus would appear as the leading edge of this surge. I think the large pocket of dry air ( SAL ) which lies just north of the latest invest 98L, bears out, this continued easterly surge as well. I think it wil become appearant that the cuttoff low north of Puerto Rico, will be shunted ( or basically pushed ) out of the way by this larger/strong region of mid to upper level ridging which is pushing westward along with 97L. Thus, I do not see the ULL playing much or any role in the developing systems motion or formation ( granted, should the ULL cut off southward, it would tend to aid in the forming systems outflow ). More than likely I would guess the ULL to simply get pinched northward and picked up by the westerlies. To me, biggest threat to Southern/East Coast of Florida, Bahamas, and potentially the Carolina's would be for this system to strengthen into a Tropical Storm prior to reaching Puerto Rico. Such a more vertically stacked system would tend to gain a little latitude a little quicker and potentially pose the biggest risk for 97L to not only impact these areas, but have greater postenial for reaching stronger downstream intensity ( given the avoidance of being impacted by mountainous terrain ). Meanwhile, greatest threat to Hispanola, Cuba, West Coast of Florida and much of the N. Gulf Coast, would be if this system were to not strengthen ( as forecast ) until reaching the Eastern Caribbean, and then to have a more Westward track. In the near term ( 72 hrs ), it is my opinion that the level of consolodation and potential for deepening that will ultimately determine whether we see a possible Major Hurricane threatening the Florida East, Georgia, or Carolina coastline or a re-intensifying hurricane which could ultimately threaten anywhere from the N. Gulf Coast eastward to the W. Coast of Florida.

Given how larger sytstems tend to strengthen more slowly, and given the current overall dynamics my best guess for the moment would be a significant rainfall event for the greater Antilles and eventually a Cat.2/3 Hurricane landfall somewhere between the Florida Panhandle region to perhaps the Louisiana coastline.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91377 - Fri Aug 19 2011 03:48 PM

The 12Z Long range models still are consistently not good. Both the GFS and 12Z Euro models show Florida landfall Friday/Saturday of next week. (GFS toward the panhandle, Euro toward south Florida and through Orlando and out north by Jacksonville)

The system has been organizing throughout the day, and has about a 40% chance to form in the next two days.

To counter this though, other models take it more southerly/westerly, and over Hispaniola again, which could destroy it (ala Emily). However, unlike Emily, 97L does not have the duality problem, and generally has better conditions ahead of it.

In short, the persistence of two of the more reliable model trends (that so far have been doing well on initialization of this system) toward Florida and the Gulf continues, and it should be watched extremely closely. This time in August is the prime time for hurricane formation, and the odds do favor a landfall somewhere in Florida or the northern Gulf coasts. When this system eventually forms into a named system, I would keep tabs on it daily.


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Joeyfl
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91378 - Fri Aug 19 2011 04:42 PM

I have to say while it is week or so from U.S threat I am a little concerned how consistent the models have really been with this system and conditions look quite good for this to be first cane of the season.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #91379 - Fri Aug 19 2011 04:48 PM

The GFS model doesn't really develop it much for another 3-4 days...faster than that would turn it more poleward...how does the development today square with GFS...about what is expected, or ahead of the model pace?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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WeatherNut
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #91382 - Fri Aug 19 2011 05:23 PM

It looks like on the northern part of the broad circulation a pretty distinct MLC is developing. This could drill down to the surface. It would also tend to support the northern models as it would initialize farther north and east. I am beginning to think this will be Irene before it gets to the islands. It has good outflow in all sections so its right under an anticyclone, and the water only gets warmer and the dry air seems to be backing off some

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Aug 19 2011 05:27 PM)


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weathernet
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91385 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:09 PM

Jeez..... I had stepped away from the computer since last posting and ........ I really was not prepared to see 97L with convective banding! Um, as suggested by other posters as well, I would assume that a more "vertically stacked" system will be one more likely to slightly gain a little latitude; if not immediatly, than certainly as it approaches the islands AND the U.S. East coast trough. Unfortunatly, these large systems are not so easily swung and bounced around, thus considering that it continues to have some solid ridging to its north, than I might assume that a 280-290 heading might ensue sometime tommorrow, but perhaps more likley on Sunday. This quicker than anticipated organization may well spell greater threat to the Florida East coast.

I would guess that tommorrow's 12Z model runs might start to bear out a somewhat more north and east shift, from those currently depicting a more westward direction.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #91386 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:12 PM

Much better organization was noted today with 97L. A well-defined circulation is starting to develop. Earlier there appeared to be a weak LLC at 13.5N and a MLC getting organized at about 15.5N. Consolidation seems to be occurring at about the midpoint in latitude - about 14.5N. It will be interesting to see what the model coordinates were for the 00Z run. NHC has increased the probability for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours to 60%. If the current trends continue, the system could make it to Tropical Depression status on Saturday.
ED


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Owlguin
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #91387 - Fri Aug 19 2011 08:26 PM

Curious which model performed best with Emily? The GFDL doesn't seem to want to develop this system. Is there recon going out tomorrow?

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #91388 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:01 PM

Dry air NE, NW and SW of the system has cleared out the cirrus shield - and discloses a common theme this season, i.e., the low-level center is outrunning the MLC and is displaced to the southwest of the MLC. It should be noted that the LLC is also rather weak. I'm basing this on the 00Z NHC position coordinates of 13.9N 51.8W - but with a weak circulation and IR imagery its a difficult challenge. General movement based on coordinate history is WNW but without a good LLC fix, the movement could still be to the west.

Here is the Recon schedule for tomorrow with fixes at 18Z and 21/00Z.
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 20/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 20/1615Z
D. 15.3N 57.5W
E. 20/1730Z TO 20/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL DERESSION EIGHT
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 21/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0608A CYCLONE
C. 20/2015Z
D. 17.0N 88.00W
E. 20/2330Z TO 21/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON WHAT IS NOW THE SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AT 21/1200Z.
B. POSSIBLE G-IV SURVEILANCE MISSION FOR THE
SAME SYSTEM AT 22/0000Z.

ED


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Invest 97L Forecast Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #91389 - Fri Aug 19 2011 11:08 PM

Time to really start watching the tropics,as things are heating up.We are just entering the "meat and potatoes" of the season.97L is the first one of three areas to start keeping a close eye on.
Late flare up with 97L late tonight.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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