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Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane
      #91524 - Mon Aug 22 2011 06:53 AM

11PM EDT Update 22 August 2011
The 11PM official track is out.

There is no real change to the forecast, it is just further along on the points in time, nor changes to watches and warnings.

It appears that the hurricane center is waiting for the next model runs with the Gultstream and Air Force dropsonde data to make any real change, which seems wise.

The Intensity forecast is up in the near term, now a cat 4 projected over the Bahamas, then it weakens to cat 3 north, and eventually approaches the NC/SC border Saturday evening.

If tropical storm or hurricane watches were to go up for Irene in Florida, they would likely come sometime tomorrow afternoon to fit in the 48.watch window.

8PM EDT Update 22 August 2011
From Recon Reports, Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds.



Recon now reports a closed eyewall within Irene as the microwave imagery shows. It is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow.



Note: We plan to turn on the site's disaster mode tomorrow which will limit certain features, but most things will still remain available. A disaster thread has been started for preparation help and questions.

11AM EDT Update 22 August 2011
Hurricane warnings are now up for the Turks and Caicos islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.

The 11AM official forecast now has moved eastward and forecasts a major hurricane in the Northern Bahamas, with eventual landfall near Charleston, South Carolina dawn on Saturday.

Much of the southeast remains in the cone, but the chances for direct impact in Florida is much less today than it was yesterday.

However, they are now forecasting a major hurricane approaching the coast of South Carolina. Those in the Coastal Carolinas (both North and South) may want to start making preparation plans in case landfall is near you, those in Florida and Georgia should already have them laid out in case a more westerly solution occurs but this is beginning to look much less likely. A stronger system would imply a turn north sooner than a weaker one (which was the old forecast), therefore Florida may escape the worst of the storm, but still get high surf from it passing through the Bahamas.

Those in the rest of the southeast will want to monitor for changes, but the trends still remain on the eastern side of the cone.

Original Update
Hurricane Irene has formed near Peurto Rico this morning as it provided an extremely rough evening across the entire island. The hurricane is now north of the western side of the ilsand, moving generally west northwest.

Some preliminary reports from Peurto Rico indicated widespread tree and power line damage, and over 800 thousand homes are without power there. See stormcarib for more reports from the islands.

The strongest side of Irene continues to be the northern side, with most of the convection pushing northward, the current forecast track moves along the northern coast of Hispaniola, where Hurricane Warnings are up for, and puts most of the Bahamas in the northern side of the storm. There is still some disagreement in models and thinking about how far west the system makes it. The current split the middle forecast is what the official forecast says, it still puts most of the southeast US on standby for the hurricane. It may not be until Tuesday or Wednesday before a clear path is known.



With the new forecast path, it does not spend as much time near Hispaniola, and with the very impressive outflow setup (similar to what is usually found in west Pacific storms) the poor south side is really the largest negative factor for development. There is a very good possibility that Irene will become a very large (size wise) major hurricane. MIMIC microwave imagery also suggests that the system is well protected from dry air intrusion which would be something to look for to keep it weaker that does not exist.

The ridging north of the system is strong which would imply generally westward movement, and we cannot say it will definitely move east of Florida (but odds are increasing that it will stay east), so again, the error in the cone can be 250 miles wide (east and west) at the end and anyone in Florida up to North Carolina should be watching Irene closely. The models have trended east, but the official track is still close to Florida, hopefully the trend to the east continues today.

The NOAA Gonzo Gulfstream IV jet is taking off today from MacDill AFB in Tampa, it will sample the atmosphere in front of Irene, and hopefully will be able to be ingested into the "0Z" models run overnight.

Updates to come throughout the day.

Harvey has made second landfall in Mexico as a tropical depression, it is expected to dissipate later today over land.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


FAA / wx underground San Juan Radar

Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.

Leewards/Martinique Radar recording for Irene Approach

See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.

Irene Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Irene


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Irene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Irene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Irene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Irene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Irene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Harvey Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Harvey


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Harvey

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Harvey
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Harvey -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


98L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: MikeC]
      #91534 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:42 AM

Well it looks that Irene made the jump over PR it kinda looked it before I hit the sack @midnight.So the E coast solution I am biting on for sure.I have one question on a piece of rumor being banted about that "I certainly think its too far west, but I did hear (last night) that the models where about 30DM too weak on the ATL ridge...So, we shall see". It looks we need some GS IV flightsout there for some upper air measurments

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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: javlin]
      #91538 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:17 AM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 14:04Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 07
A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 13:42:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°59'N 67°20'W (18.9833N 67.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 92 miles (149 km) to the WNW (295°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,991m (9,813ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (237°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 326° at 46kts (From between the NW and NNW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the WSW (237°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:48:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:48:30Z
*********************************************
Note:
This flight was at the 700mb level or 10,000 feet. The other flights were flown at 5,000 feet. There is a difference in the Eye temperatures from 5,000 to 10,000 feet. But I still see a 5 degree Celsius spread right now.
I emphasized the Eye diameter with bold above. A bit strange to see a 26 mile wide Eye in an 80 mph hurricane.

NOAA 9 or 49, the Gulfstream Jet is scheduled below:
FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/00Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z Take Off Monday(today) at 1:30 PM EDT
F. 41,000 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/12Z
B. NOAA9 0809A IRENE
C. 23/0530Z
D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 10:26 AM)


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JMII
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 161
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: javlin]
      #91539 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:22 AM

Irene has been trending NE of its projected path, so if this continues it might stay offshore from the FL and head into GA or SC. In addition she a bit strong then originally projected which should draw her more N. She was looking really good about midday yesterday but this AM is looking more ragged, so the island disrupted her just a bit. However she was projected to be south of PR just two days ago so I'm not buying a FL landfall at this point. Historical plots also favor a more NE trend. Outflow looks good on all side except the E where a pocket of dry air still remains.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91540 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:29 AM

The 12Z http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png early cycle models are out and they shifted WAY EAST i suspect the same for the main late cycle ones and a east trending plot

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papaswamp
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 9
Loc: Marineland, FL 29.66N 81.21W
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91543 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM

Being a complete and total newb, makes my opinion in the negative $0.02, but I have to agree with JMII…most models are tracking much further east…clips NC and heads towards NYC?

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91544 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM

I'm not entirely sure that she is really that far to the NE of her current projected path. If anything, it is slightly more northern. Looks like an impressive convection blowup over the COC beginning as well.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91545 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:50 AM

Quote:

Irene has been trending NE of its projected path, so if this continues it might stay offshore from the FL and head into GA or SC. In addition she a bit strong then originally projected which should draw her more N. She was looking really good about midday yesterday but this AM is looking more ragged, so the island disrupted her just a bit. However she was projected to be south of PR just two days ago so I'm not buying a FL landfall at this point. Historical plots also favor a more NE trend. Outflow looks good on all side except the E where a pocket of dry air still remains.




I have to disagree somewhat with you in how she is.. I think she looks better than 24hrs ago..especially after going over land and small mountains of Puerto Rico. She has though always stayed 100miles NE of each Model point after 6hrs. Unless she starts showing a due W movement in the near term, Florida will be off the hook... which is 3 days out.


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Marknole
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Daytona Beach Shores, FL 29.18N 80.98W
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91547 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:02 AM

Yep JM. Here's what I posted yesterday morning. Trends trump averages, and Irene trended right (East) from the get-go...
Quote:

Especially if Irene strengthens, I look to see the forecasts trending down in forward speed, and moving more towards the right. Fish storm, or possibly an OBX approach.




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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Marknole]
      #91548 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:12 AM

The new forecast as i said before moved more east and shows a trend to keep doing so.Florida is more and more chances going down.

Per NHC which i said earlier:::::::: the current guidance lessens the threat
to South Florida.


Do not to focus on the exact forecast track...especially at days 4
to 5...since the most recent 5-year average errors at those
forecast times are 200 and 250 miles...respectively.

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 22 2011 11:16 AM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
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Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: JMII]
      #91549 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:17 AM

As of now...S. FL is still in the cone of possibility. Please be prepared if you are still in the cone of uncertainty put out by the NHC. They have that cone for a reason. This looks to be a serious situation...so dont be caught off guard if you are in the cone! NHC is now forecasting a major hurricane.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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danielwAdministrator
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Reged: Wed
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: danielw]
      #91551 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:27 AM

The Florida Peninsula is still in the Cone. And using the latest NHC guidance Irene will be a Major Hurricane just south of 25N Latitude or Andros Island, Bahamas at Sunrise on Thursday Morning.

Irene is Forecast travel the entire length of the Florida Peninsula as a Category 3 Major Hurricane.
This means that almost everyone in the Cone will experience Tropical Storm Force winds for a prolonged time. As much as 24 hours.
Please take the time now and prepare a 3 Day Kit. Just in case. You can always drink the bottled water later and eat the canned goods. Don't forget the can opener. Being hungry with no can opener and lots of canned food is not a pleasant feeling.
More to follow...



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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: danielw]
      #91554 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:46 AM

Florida will probably only get some squalls at most.. Still Rip Tides,Waves and beach Erosion will be the concern as people along the coast with homes will see some sort of rise in watch levels. Also Dangerous situation for Surfers as most beaches will be closed but you cant stop everyone in isolated areas going out there. Kids will be Kids.

Everyone should go out and get whatever supplies if you feel you need them. Its still 3 days out but my forecast since Friday night in the lounge is still it and probably wont change. The ridge is further NE causing a more WNW path than indictated in the models since this formed. Don't forget.. 2 days ago this was suppose to be near Haiti on the carribean side. See why we tell people to not look at models until something forms or to look past 3 days. This is really a pretty easy straight forward system to forecast.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91556 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:57 AM

I agree i think even with Tampa in the cone and even if the track was exact (which it won't) tampa would not get anything.Always remember the left side is the weaker side.

Also the NHC forcast is on the western side of the models so i would think come 5pm it will be even more east and maybe even the west coast of Florida out of the cone.

ALSO as the storm gets closer and a track gets more apparent the cone will shrink.I in noway am saying Florida is out of the woods but if the models do not change or the storm start going due west real fast the most Florida will see is squalls and some rain and this is South Florida east coast.

In fact Tampa would see less rain the normal no afternoon rain as all the rain would be pulled away and Tampa would be hit and dry more then normal

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:11 PM)


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: ralphfl]
      #91557 - Mon Aug 22 2011 11:58 AM

Quote:

The 12Z http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png early cycle models are out and they shifted WAY EAST i suspect the same for the main late cycle ones and a east trending plot




I thus far have only seen the early NAM 12Z run and the beginnings of the 12Z GFS, but nothing thus far to show me further indication of how/why the "cone" was edged to the east. Could you provide another link to the early cycle models you referred to? That link seems to be broken.....

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:27 PM)


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: weathernet]
      #91558 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:00 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

I posted the link earlier

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 12:29 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: weathernet]
      #91564 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:08 PM

You dont need to look at the NAM model..it's not for Tropical Systems.

Just watch the ECMWF and the GFS and use a blend of the 2.

GFDL has been constantly too far west but is sliding eastward each run..along
with the Ukmet..but both as not as good as the ECMWF or GFS.

It's more NE cause of the ridging I stated is depicted wrong on the models.. but looks
like the GFS has it finally correct (like ECMWF has for the past day or 2)


If you really want to know "Why" the NHC hasn't adjusted their cone more to the right
is cause it's still 3 days out and besides.. they need to keep the people informed. If they
move the cone off of florida.. people would think.. Ok.. nothing to worry about here. But
again..3 days out. They know its a good 90% chance Florida wont be more than bad
seas and surf conditions (beach erosion) but as each 12hrs gets closer.. they will move
that cone more eastward into the bahamas. .... So it's to keep peoples attention really.


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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #91565 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:10 PM

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png there is the link again it is working

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Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: scottsvb]
      #91566 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:15 PM

Hey Scott,

How far off the coast of Cape Canaveral do you think the center will pass? 50-100miles or 100+ miles.
I am supposed to fly to New England Wednesday, and I'm trying to decide to delay the trip or not. The thought of an empty house 15 miles from the ocean as a Major goes by doesn't feel right.


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1093
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico [Re: Beach]
      #91568 - Mon Aug 22 2011 12:19 PM

My best guess right now would be it wont make it closer than 77W from where your at. Maybe 200 miles to your east. If your flying out of Orlando...you should be fine. 15 miles from the coast.. your fine.. if your on the beach.. I would be more worried about high surf and beach erosion.

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