MikeC
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9PM EDT 23 August 2011 Update
Irene's eye is becoming visible on IR Satellite, and reports from two planes inside Irene now have found a pressure of 965 mb, and stronger winds, it appears Irene is on another strengthening spurt tonight.
6PM EDT 23 August 2011 Update
Hurricane Irene disrupted a bit from land interaction with Hispaniola and some shear is now crossing between the Turks and Caicos islands, bringing very strong winds to the islands. Hurricane Hunter Aircraft recently found a lower pressure of 969 so it may be on its way back, Irene is still forecast to be a major hurricane tomorrow.
The official forecast clips the outer banks of North Carolina, and primary operational models trends have been holding at this point for the last few runs. Because of this, there is a Mandatory evacuation of tourists from Ocracoke Island, NC. This starts tomorrow, and then expands to locals on Thursday. This will also include Cape Lookout and Hatteras.
Marine Tropical Storm watches are up east of Florida, but no land tropical storm watches as Irene should pass well east of Florida, some winds below tropical storm force may occur along the coastline along with beach erosion and heavy surf.
Beyond the Carolinas, persons up the Eastern Seaboard in particular Long Island north into New England really need to start monitoring this system.
Also, Puerto Rico is still getting flooding rains from the tail of Irene's rain bands.
11AM EDT 23 August 2011 Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for all of the Bahamas. The forecast track shifted very very slightly to the east, but it is mostly an extension of the 5AM official forecast.
Florida is also now out of the cone of uncertainty. Although the odds for a southeast impact are lower, they are still fairly high for North Carolina, and new England will have to watch this system as well.
Original Update
Hurricane Irene has pulled in a bit of dry air from interaction with Hispaniola that disrupted the inflow a bit overnight, but appears to be on track toward the official forecast path. Outflow is starting to become well defined on the western side of the system, and it appears that it will likely regain and strengthen later today once it moves further away from the Island.
Computer model guidance from last night (with extra data collected from NOAA and Air force planes) has shifted right which implies Florida will see very little impact other than beach erosion and rough surf, which is good news for them (right along the coast may be a little breezy though), however based on the official forecast, a major hurricane is expected to pass 150 miles to the east of Florida, tearing through the central Bahamas. After which it is projected to make landfall in North Carolina near Wilmington late night Saturday into Sunday morning. Most models have come into agreement on it staying east of the US until North Carolina. The track may shift slightly west or east during the day, but should remain relatively in the cone. It is important to note, so far the trends have been to the east.
Beyond the forecast, After that it may rake along the east coast into New England, so folks as far up as Maine into Canada will want to watch Irene.
There are no new watches or warnings so far today.
Satellite shows a slightly disrupted hurricane (from land interaction with Hispaniola), but very little holding it back from regaining and strengthening later after it moves away. Outflow to the north and west of the storm is very conductive for development. There is a slight elongation north to south in the system which would imply a slight tug northward, which is in line with the forecast projections. If anything changes in the near term it would be because of any interesting interactions with Hispaniola. Generally though, Irene is a very large hurricane and field fields are very large so most of the Bahamas will be affected in some way.
Those in Florida will still want to watch it to see exactly how close it gets, but it would have to get within 60 miles of the coast to see any significant hurricane weather from Irene (it is forecast to be 150 miles east near it's closest approach point). And chances of that are low, around 5%, usually not enough to change plans. Chances for Tropical Storm force winds are a little higher right along the Florida east coast at 30% In short, on it's closest approach, you probably won't want to be on the beach. Surfers will get very long period swells as it approaches, but at closest approach it will be too rough to do much.
For those keeping track, the official forecast gets updated at 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM, with intermediate advisories at 2AM, 8AM, 2PM, and 8PM while watches/warnings are active. In majors, usually updates can come even more often than that. As a note, there is nothing suggesting a shift back to the west will occur right now, if a change would occur, odds are it would be the opposite (to the east).
Those in North Carolina need to use the next few days for preparations, and South Carolina will want to any westward shifts. Those further north into New England will want to watch the progress of Irene as well.
The Bahamas will get a very rough next few days with a major hurricane forecast to be across the heart of the islands.
See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.
Event Links
Flhurricane Disaster and preparatory information thread.
We are now recording the Rocky Bay webcam at Abaco Island in the Bahamas -- note these images are large.
Hope Town Fire rescue on Abaco Island, storm information
Updated Map of Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack.com, with video and radar for Irene approach See HurricaneTrack.com for more information.
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
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MikeC
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Recon aircraft is just now taking off from Saint Croix for another peek into Irene
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Random Chaos
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Irene keeps firing up deep convection over the core. Every time it starts to die down, new deep convection appears on IR, showing that the storm is still quite healthy even with the dry air entrainment from the affects of the mountains of Hispanola. This entrainment is very clear and will take some time to work out; probably will not fully work out until the storm is further from the mountains. We may see a lapse in storm growth until then, giving us at least several more hours of respite from additional strengthening.
I also included a microwave pass from Modis (via ) which shows the outer convective band skirting around the south side of Hispanola in order to avoid the land and mountains. The eye is clearly disrupted, as seen in that pass. While several hours old, the storm has not changed much in IR appearance since then.
What one can see in the attached Water Vapor image is how the mountains are causing dry air ingestion into the storm. South of the mountains is a line of moderate to deep convection spiraling around to the right and north of the storm just outside the dry air stream caused by the land interaction. The storm is able to generate plenty of convection, but the land is keeping the system weaker than it would otherwise be.
The 00Z model runs are out, and converge more closely on a hit somewhere in the Carolinas. However, I want to bring special attention to the 00Z run because it highlights why no one should stop paying attention to the storm. There is no guarentee that the 00Z run is accurate, but it's a warning of what could be. That run shows the track strafing Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina into a North Carolina landfall, across the southern Chesapeake Bay, back out to sea, strafing the New Jersey coast, then back inland over Long Island and Massachusetts, possibly reemerging off the coast only to again make landfall in Maine. The potential exists that the entire Atlantic Seaboard will have significant effect.
This is only what one model run shows, but no one should ignore this storm.
00Z : http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
Dry air interaction (Water Vapor):
Mountain effects (Microwave via ):
Edited by Random Chaos (Tue Aug 23 2011 11:19 AM)
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OrlandoDan
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I am concerned that the interaction with the high mountains of the DR are keeping Irene a bit weaker than the models anticipated. This may result in a more westerly component of movement with this weaker storm.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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GuppieGrouper
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The models have had trouble all along with the storm until this new data came in. I think what comes from the new data should be more of what you need to know.I know its scary having a large storm bearing down and that is why we have to stay alert until it is past our latitude.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
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Help me to uderstand please. If she weakens from the mountains and you stated a more westerly, does that mean it will take longer for her to turn to the NW?
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I survived Jeanne, Charley, and Frances
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MikeC
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Quote:
Help me to uderstand please. If she weakens from the mountains and you stated a more westerly, does that mean it will take longer for her to turn to the NW?
The storm actually went a bit right (north) of the 5AM track, this increases the chance it will stay further east.
I really don't see any reason it would get closer to Florida than about 150 miles east.
Irene is pulling away from Hispaniola now.
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MikeC
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As a note, the current thinking is similar (but not exactly the same) to Hurricane Floyd (1999) (this link superimposes Floyd's track with Irene) where it stayed east of Florida at a similar distance, although Irene may be a bit further east than Floyd.
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ralphfl
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The models have shifted even more to the east.The data was put in the models of this 100mph storm it would have to drop down to a TS to even consider going west.
Watch it but look at the data it is clear to see what this storm is going to do.
Edited by ralphfl (Tue Aug 23 2011 01:13 PM)
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MikeC
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The US water vapor shows the trough moving southward near GA/SC line that is expected to eventually jog Irene more northward. (Although it's spawning an interesting convection area east of Jax) This appears to be stronger than the models were forecasting, which increases the chance the storm will move more north and east sooner, and may only clip the Outer Banks. Still a bit too early to be sure though.
This along with the other long water vapor image may be helpful if you are trying to gauge Irene's motions by satellite.
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JMII
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Looking at Irene this AM you can see a slightly elongated shape (N to S) as the western side (and the SW) can't get its act together. The mountains are clearly limiting her potential, thus why the is forecasting a Cat 3 once she is in open water. The models have finally gotten into alignment and agree Irene will stay off the coast of FL. The front pushing off the east coast of the US is pretty strong, I wonder if long term Irene will shift even further east and make landfall on the outer banks of NC or miss them entirely? Once she gains strength she'll be pulled north. Strange to see a storm this strong not have a defined eye yet, but once again the disruption to the SW is keeping the core from really wrapping up.
As for S FL I would expect minimal Tropical Storm force winds on Thursday, the hurricane force winds are still isolated very close to the system's core.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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WeatherNut
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Looks like the latest recon has arrived at the center and the lowest pressure so far is 976.4 so not much of a drop since the last advisory
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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scottsvb
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S Florida will not get anything close to TS force winds unless somehow the system moves at least 100 miles further west. There might be some gusts near that in a squall or 2 that comes inland along the east coast of florida..but the core of the winds will remain offshore.
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ralphfl
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The whole state of Florida is now out of the code but for a very small part above MIA but in reality the whole state is clear of the cone as of now.
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Firebug814
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Just curious, the coordinates that were just given are more of a wsw aren't they? Am I reading that wrong?
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JMII
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Quote:
S Florida will not get anything close to TS force winds unless somehow the system moves at least 100 miles further west. There might be some gusts near that in a squall or 2 that comes inland along the east coast of florida..but the core of the winds will remain offshore.
With the adjustment of the cone further east yet again I agree. However I am just wondering how big she'll expand to once in open water. If the weather (rain/wind) on the NE side ever wraps around to the SW this will be a large system. The tends to over estimate the size (and strength) of the wind field so your most likely correct: the east coast of FL will not see sustained TS winds.
The winds in Pine Cay (T&C Islands) are gusting to 40mph from the N right now and the pressure is dropping. Should be interesting to keep tabs on this location today and into tonight. The center of Irene is still 100 miles away but should pass within 40 miles of this location around 8PM tonight.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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javlin
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You read it right just a blip in the scheme of things,wobble.Now if it was to happen all day then concern but the models have a good handle on this one.
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scottsvb
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Irene should move more west today..but it wont mean much cause she was
suppose to be moving west the past few days. Reason she will move west
is cause of the trough digging down off the SE U.S. and backing into florida
carving a thin ridge to extend SW. It usually happens with strong hurricanes
just before a turn into a trough.
Think of holding your hand and making a fist.... (that is your ridge)
Then take your index finger and point it at a 225dg angle .... that is a
narrow ridge that gets more heat infront of the trough as it digs. It's
kinda my own explanation of west jogs infront of the pull northward.
Anyways you should continue to see a more west movement today
maybe around 280dg then the turn tonight-Weds more NW up the bahama
chain.
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Ed in Va
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What is your assessment of the current forecast...accurate?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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scottsvb
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Ed... I think if you live on the coast of Virginia,NC,SC you should probably be ready to move inland
sometime on Weds afternoon... will know where or if it will make landfall after Weds 12Z model runs come out.
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