Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
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Tazmanian93
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Weather Master 
Reged: Sun Posts: 495 Loc: Tampa
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Good morning, did you mean to say "Northwest" ? Edited by MikeC (Wed Aug 24 2011 07:15 AM)
Random Chaos
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Weather Analyst 
Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland
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Kermit is on the way in. We should have a eye pressure within the next 15 to 30 minutes. Airforce AF303 is also heading in, but a little further out still. SSD Dvorak is up to T5.5 (indicates generally a cat 3 storm) CMISS Advanced Dvorak Technique is up to T6.3 (indicates a cat 4 storm) Going to be interesting to see what Recon finds. Storm presentation is good, but has degraded a little over the past hour as it appears the center is filling in a little. Edit: Kermit just passed through the center. HDOB data shows surface pressure extrapolated to 951mb, generally associated with a category 3 storm. Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Aug 24 2011 07:04 AM)
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote: Yes the movement is turning more to the northwest this morning away from west northwest at the 5AM. It's probably going to wobble/stairstep a lot today though.
Random Chaos
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Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat Posts: 1024 Loc: Maryland
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Dropsonde in the eye found 957mb surface pressure. That's 5mb strengthening over the NHC estimate in their 5am update, and would be lower end of category 3 generally.
danielw |
Moderator 
Reged: Wed Posts: 3525 Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote: 957mb is roughly a max possible wind speed of 118 mph. So Irene is just under the curve. 951mb would be max of 124 mph.
JMII
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Weather Master 
Reged: Thu Posts: 489 Loc: Margate, Florida
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While she is getting stronger the wind field appears to be pretty small. Pine Cay was only 40 miles from the eye and at 3:50AM recorded a low pressure of 29.2in and a gust of 72 mph. Crooked Island looks to take a direct hit, but I didn't see any weather stations that stream data from that location. -------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17 Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
scottsvb
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Weather Master Reged: Mon Posts: 1184 Loc: fl
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Irene should continue to deepen over the next 36hrs...then weakening will take place but a expanding windfield once it passes NC. NC,RI,Mass will get some hurricane force winds. Overall she is still on forecasted path..maybe even slightly east of where I placed her last weekend.
Firebug814
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Registered User Reged: Wed Posts: 8
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I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the NHC has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?
adam s
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Verified CFHC User Reged: Tue Posts: 20
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Every model run Irene is heading further east. I don't think Irene will hit the U.S.
Tazmanian93
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Weather Master
Reged: Sun Posts: 495 Loc: Tampa
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY Quote: -------------------- Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while. Go Bucs!!!!!!!!! **************** Ed
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote: The last 4 coordinate points have been about 305 degrees (IE northwest), and the latest recon fixes have shown generally northwest. The storm is going to wobble and stair-step, but the overall smooth motion is going to go slowly from northwest to more north over today and tomorrow. If anything the forecast track is not far east enough. Watching the satellite of Irene for movement constantly will test your nerves on a storm like this, right now it stair-stepped westward, a longer jog northward will probably happen. If after 6 hours a "jog" keeps going, you have something. Odds are dropping for a NC landfall as well, now to about 25%. Still 1 in 4 chance is not something to play games with in a hurricane like this. It is going to be rough in the Carolinas, and it will likely be a good deal closer and stronger than Earl last year (that missed further to the east). If you are on the outer banks, I'd still make plans to leave Thursday or by the latest Friday. If hurricane watches/warnings are issued, take heed. The reason we say "without the hype" is that we look at why things will not happen over why they will, because hurricane landfalls are a rare event. I honestly do not see anything that would make it go back more west right now and plenty of reasons that would nudge the track more eastward. If that changes I will immediately post that. Really the official forecast is probably going to be correct (at least to 3 days)
tpratch
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Moderator 
Reged: Fri Posts: 339 Loc: Maryland
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Quote: The fixes have trends and the last one is definitely "toward the northwest" as was the phrasing in the 11am update. I'm not sure what you're seeing to suggest more west than north overall. 16 08/24 5:00 AM 21.6N 72.9W (.3 north, .4 west) 16A 08/24 8:00 AM 21.9N 73.3W (.5 north, .4 west) 17 08/24 11:00 AM 22.4N 73.9W A 3 hour block of movement is sufficient to be a trend - a 6 hour, more so. We have a NW trend over the past 6 hours - more than sufficient to call for a NW heading. Edited by tpratch (Wed Aug 24 2011 11:32 AM)
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon found 117 knot flight level winds, which translates to about 120MPH on the ground, so Irene is strengthening still, over the Bahamas. It's stair stepping westward now, but should jog back to the north fairly soon.
WeatherNut
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Weather Master Reged: Wed Posts: 412 Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Also, dont forget that intense hurricanes tend to wobble. They dont go straight WNW or NW. Motion is usually an average of 6hrs. A good example is currently it looks like its going more westward than before, but it you look at the entire loop the motion is consistent with what the NHC has said -------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
JMII
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Weather Master
Reged: Thu Posts: 489 Loc: Margate, Florida
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The eye is currently directly over Crooked Island. Current motion suggests the eye will come very close to Long Island (Bahamas, not NY) and just to the SW of Rum Cay around 8PM tonight. Next up will be Cat Island with George Town, Bahamas being right on the edge of the eye wall. Currently winds at George Town are out of the NNE at 20 gusting to 30 mph, pressure 29.6 and falling, with Irene located approximately 100 miles to the SE.
okihabu
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Verified CFHC User 
Reged: Wed Posts: 11 Loc: Spring Hill, Florida
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Withthe increase in forward speed from 9 to 12 mph, and the increase in strength to a cat 2, how will that effect the overall tract it will take? I know the stronger the storm the more it might shift north, and as I see what Mike said, it looks like it still has a wnw tract, but NHC says nw!! The stair steps its doing still has it going wnw. The slight increase in forward speed not be much but how far will it tract either way? -------------------- Chuck Good
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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The jogs mean a lot for the Bahamas, for example This view is showing that the core of Irene may jog over Long Island in the Bahamas vs stay east, which in damage potential, is huge, and unfortunate for that Island. What's being watched for now is when it turns due north, and hopefully sooner rather than later for the Northeast.
Ed Dunham |
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017) Reged: Sun Posts: 2565 Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Pure northwest would be 315 degrees. The range for 'northwest' would be from 305 to 325 degrees. On the last bulletin, NHC stated a movement of 305 degrees, so by definition, that is a movement to the northwest. From 12Z to 18Z Irene moved 0.8 degrees north and 1.0 degrees west - or about 310 degrees - a northwesterly direction. Do hurricanes wobble along on their track - yes. However, the wobbles don't mean a thing in terms of defining direction until they become an established trend in a certain direction over something beyond a couple of hours of time. ED
MikeC |
Admin Reged: Sun Posts: 4543 Loc: Orlando, FL
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Forgot to post this yesterday, but the National Weather Service in Melbourne is doing video presentations on Irene, this link is today's..
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