Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially over. June 1st-Nov 30th, 2014 for the next.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 540 (Sandy) , in Florida: 3102 (8 y 5 m) (Wilma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #91893 - Thu Aug 25 2011 09:35 PM

Been watching this for days now ... just because. Irene is becoming pretty impressive for an East Coast storm. Hope folks in the NE are taking this seriously.

Looking at Atlantic Floater 2 IR RGB and a new eye has become quite clear, along with what appears to be near perfect northward movement. There appears to be good convection developing right around the new eye. The west side, however, looks a bit dry.
Melbourne long range Doppler radar shows the eye and western rain bands, but it's at the edge of range, so it looks a bit diffuse. Link for radar

Melbourne Radar

BTW, this is the BEST site on the web for hurricane discussion and information!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91905 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:58 AM

Sat image this morning looks like Irene is now getting caught in the SW winds aloft flow along the coast with movement now appearing NNE, and along with that is experiencing some shear along that direction in the upper levels. The eye has again nearly disappeared, the outflow is extended to the NE, and where earlier appearances showing Irene was regaining outflow in the S and SW portions now appear to be compressed. Convection is coming and going, and is currently strongest on the north side and weak in the west to south portions, That agrees with Doppler imagery from Jacksonville, Charleston and Wilmington. It almost looks that Irene's cyclonic organization is becoming a bit twisted and tilted, like a big slanted helix.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TallyBob
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91906 - Fri Aug 26 2011 08:02 AM

I've checked all the landfall area tv stations and find it hard to believe that not one of them is offering "LIVE" coverage. Can anyone point to a NC or other area station that is broadcasting live on the Web? THX

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TallyBob]
      #91912 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:02 AM

Scanning and from what I'm seeing, it's CYA from the MSM.

One segment from CNN this AM on NYC Zone A flooding.
Along with Jersey and Staten Island.

And even that was 'fringe' of land will flood.

A 13 ft surge is going to Canal St. At High Tide.
The Holland Tunnel will flood.

NYC will be without electricity for 6 days.

If a Cat 2 comes over the Statue of Liberty.
And the Latest tracks have Irene passing DelMarVa
as a Cat 3....

Not a clue. You are on your own.
Get out. OR have a fortress. For 6 days.
Who knows what will happen on Western Long Island.

Again. 25 million w/o electricity for 6 days....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91914 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:09 AM

And one more thing.

The GFDL is again 'running' Irene around coastline.
Up the Chesapeake.

Instead I'm thinking around Cape Hatteras and into NYC.

Reminds me of baseball and Irene is a slider
and NYC is the Low Left Corner of the Strike Zone.

The pitch has to be perfect.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #91915 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:11 AM

The thread is starting to drift off topic. The Forum Description is as follows: "Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". Unofficial best guesses as well as storm-oriented forecasting contests can go here."
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91918 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:55 AM

From the sat images overnight and this morning it would appear that convection around the core largely diminished and was diplaced well outwards. But watching the sat images evolve this morning I am beginning to think that what we are about to see is the re-emergence of a new and larger well defined eye over the next 3-6 hours. Could the weakening overnight have been part of a cyclical relaxation / regeneration process, a la eyewall replacement, but without the classic concentric structure that precedes eyewall collapse, and now will follow with eye regeneration?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 488
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91921 - Fri Aug 26 2011 10:34 AM

Isn't there an old adage about a hurricane moving in the way it's pointed...if you look at this, it's going to come ashore west of the prediction http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91943 - Fri Aug 26 2011 05:20 PM

Okay, nothing like a clear eye in latest available sat images. With the sun lowering to the west and allowing for some shadow detail in the center area, the visible loop appears to be showing fairly clear evidence of SW shear. The NE quadrant is extended outwards to the NE and the interior appears to be a deep funnel wall. The SW quadrant appears just the opposite, and in fact it looks as if the SW quadrant is being pushed to the NE over the center, giving a near vertical SW cyclonic wall.wall. Looks like good outflow to the NE, not so much to the SW.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Edski
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 18
Loc: Palm Harbor, Florida, USA 28.08N 82.74W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91949 - Fri Aug 26 2011 06:53 PM

SW quad of this storm has been challenged from the start it seems. What I've seen today, mainly based on the IR loop, is dry air enrtraining in.

Glad I missed it here in Tampa, and I understand a lot of folks getting hit with this are not too experienced dealing with these types of storms, but it does seem the hype machine is in overdrive. "Historic storm"? How? It's a hurricane strafing the east coast. It hasn't happened in a while, but it's certainly not unprecedented.

It does have a large wind field, and as Ed Dunham has mentioned on the main news thread that can lead to a serious surge, and that there are many more tall buildings in the NE. So taking this seriously is warranted. But calling it "historic"? I'm not sure I can agree with that.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Edski]
      #91954 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:26 PM

It strikes me that the issue with Irene for the land areas that will be affected is that the width of the storm portends very extended periods for storm surge to build. It's not so much the strength but rather the duration that makes it particularly troublesome for everything from the Eastern Shore up through Cape Cod and Boston.

Watching sat and what was available on Doppler on and off all day, the SW shear became quite apparent this afternoon. Now as the sun sets it appears that the SW shear is diminishing, the overall cyclonic rotation is becoming more symmetrical, and a pinpoint eye is now evident. If it were over open water it would look like restrengthening would be in the cards, but with the NC shore upcoming that would seem unlikely.

Edited by TXEB (Fri Aug 26 2011 07:40 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 808
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91955 - Fri Aug 26 2011 07:38 PM

Aside from the wind and the potential for damage from it, the amount of rainfall on already saturated ground, and the high tides and waves are going to do enormous damage both inland (rainfall) and along the coastal regions (tides and surf). Long Island will be heavily impacted being mostly on the stronger, East side of the storm. After LI, it will be the coastal areas of RI, CT, and MA. What is the projected forward speed of Irene when it is forecast to cross LI and then into New England? Historically, tropical storms have had fairly rapid forward speeds when they have impacted the NE US thereby lessening the total impact on that area. If Irene is moving comparatively slowly, the impact will be much greater due to the longer duration of severe conditions. Yes, this could be historic in striking a heavily populated region.

--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual: 13/2/0


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #91957 - Fri Aug 26 2011 08:10 PM

Can anyone explain why the jog in the GFDL model at the mouth of Delaware Bay ?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91958 - Fri Aug 26 2011 09:30 PM

The GFDL has been all over on this storm i would not go by what 1 model says but what the middle ground is which is the NHC track.The GFDL has not been good on this storm so take what the NHC says and not the GFDL as for the storm i still think it goes more east then there projected path.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: ralphfl]
      #91964 - Fri Aug 26 2011 11:51 PM

Like ED said somewhere, a model is not the forecast, it is an aid to assist in developing the forecast. My question was not about the accuracy of any model, but rather what is it that that leads to the GFDL jog? I am just curious as the jog is quite noticeable and appears unique to GDFL and has persisted over several runs. Does the underlying global atmospheric model used in GFDL suggest something that others do not, or is it maybe that GFDL has trouble when tracks run over or near land, or whatever?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: TXEB]
      #91965 - Sat Aug 27 2011 12:42 AM

Maybe I can help.

A lot of the question surrounding the track of the storm, and the cause of the GFDL bending westward, have been directly related to how Irene interacts with the trough over the northern US.

There are two thoughts on this: (1) the trough will "suck" Irene toward it and (2) the trough will not affect Irene much. GFDL is taking much more of the 1st thought while other models are running more with #2.

I don't know enough about how these sorts of upper air dynamics play out to tell you which is more likely, but from what I've read #1 is definitely capable of happening, but no one really knows if it will. From what I can tell, there is a lot of blind throwing of darts at dart boards about which scenario will actually happen.

Official forecasts are tracking more with #2, and as seen over the past day the models that have been trending toward #2 are more closely aligned with the actual track Irene has taken. However, there is no guarantee that that trend will continue as Irene draws closer to the trough.

A couple things about the GFDL and GFDN models: These models are based on global models. The GFDL uses the AVN while the GFDN uses the NOGAPS. Neither the AVN nor the NOGAPS is showing the westward jog, even though over the past two days the GFDL/N have both been showing westward jogs. Given that the GFDL/N are regional models with boundary conditions determined by the global model output, it is possible that they are developing the trough differently from the global models. Really hard to tell, though, with the output data available to the public.

Given the track record of the GFDL in past storms, I never dismiss that model. It is right a surprising amount of the time (though I have also seen it be very wrong). Therefore one must realistically consider that the jogs seen in the various Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab models are possible (this includes GFDL, GFDN, GFDT, GFDI, GFNI, and GFTI). BTW, anyone know what global model the T variant is based on? (FYI: the GF*I models are the runs that focus on intensity over position; while the GFD* runs focus on position over intensity.)

Hope this helps answer your question!

Ed Dunham or Clark Evans would be able to much better explain this than me!

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2011 12:50 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
TXEB
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
Re: Irene Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91968 - Sat Aug 27 2011 07:20 AM

Thanks, Random Chaos! That answer helps a good bit.

As I understood, both GFDL and HWRF are regional models that get their boundary conditions from the same GFS global model. GFDL is clearly reacting to something that HWRF is not. How the models calculate the interaction with that trough forming in the Great Lakes region must be the issue. The trough is moving across within the common westerly flow and it would appear from the NHC forecast track and discussion that the resident expertise there has largely dismissed much direct influence of the trough on Irene's track and weighted heavily toward steady movement with the westerlies themselves.

Edit 10:00 EDT -- looks like GFDL is now giving up the jog and coming back toward the others.

Edited by TXEB (Sat Aug 27 2011 10:04 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 5 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 50459

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center