doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
|
|
Both 06Z HWRF and show a hurricane south of 20 N and near 50 west at the end of their runs.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:22 AM)
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
The 2812Z takes it to about 20N 52W at the 8-day point - which is about the limit of the models usefullness. 92L is a well-formed Invest with plenty of convection and some cyclonic turning so its certainly a possibility. Another one to watch.
ED
|
weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
|
|
The UKMet and Canadian Global's also in line with development of 92L. Other observation is while the EURO develops 92L as well, it seems to be faster with it and places it at about 18N & 55W at 144 hr's, and at about 24N & 70W at 10 days out. Of note, the various EURO "ensembles" which make up the "Operational" run of the EURO seems to be slower in motion. Finally, looking at the earlier runs, the trend for each consectutive run, shows 92L moving further west with each run and with time.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:25 AM)
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Chances for tropical cyclone development have been increased to 70%.
On the , part of the reason for the additional appearance of a more westward movement with time has to do with the model resolution itself. When you go from the fine resolution model output to the course resolution output beyond 192 hours the storms will often appear to have a more northerly component - but its usually just a byproduct of the course resolution. On the next model run you have 6 more hours of fine resolution output, so the track seems like it is continuing more westward (and in fact, it is). For this reason (and others) I just don't pay much attention to the beyond 192 hours (actually, a lot less than that for those 'other reasons').
Cheers,
ED
|
weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
|
|
92L as of 8:00pm, now has been up'd to a 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. All the while, its farily hard to even get a glimps of it . 18Z run still has it recurving at some point, yet how well a handle it already has on it and the overall dynamics of the steering levels at day 5-6 I do not know. I believe South Florida was "bullseye" for Irene, according to the at day 6 and possibly day 5. Just watch and wait...
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
TD12 still fighting windshear that has slowed the development process. Its actually a rather ragged looking TD at the moment, but overall convection is good. The Depression is still moving just about due west and the remnants of old TD10 to the north are weakening and should become a non-player. With the TD slow to develop, a westward track is likely to continue on Tuesday.
ED
|
M.A.
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl 27.64N 80.38W
|
|
Katia has formed, might have Bermuda in the crosshairs. Although a couple of early models start to keep it more westerly.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 30 2011 09:28 AM)
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
|
|
Katia is definitely looking much more symmetrical this morning. This early on, I'm thinking fish spinner.
--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
|
|
I'm looking at the Typhoon headed towards Japan. If it recurves then Katia will follow suit (in 5-10 days) because that will indicate a weaker ridge. If it goes north into Japan and does not recurve then the ridge will be much stronger in 7-10 days and a more westward motion will be indicated...weather is all connected and what happens there will affect downstream
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
|
|
I think at this point its best to go 50/50 route for now on Katia. I find it somewhat amazing how even some of the TV meteorologist are saying its likely to turn and has better chance of hitting Ireland then the US east coast? We are talking about something 7+ days down the road. I do not see all the models 100% taking this on a sure right hand turn (GFS?). Yes the did very good job with Irene and it may very well with Katia. But with some models showing enough of a break in ridge to north and some showing ridge possibly linking up with ridge moving across the U.S. Its much to soon to say that U.S is out of the woods. Alot of things have to play out including what happens in Gulf which models are not being consistent about yet.
|
MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
|
|
Raw odds wise it has about a 45% chance of landfall isomewhere, and 55% chance for recurve today. (Source) For the us chances for landfall are about 23% , and 77% recurve.
From looking at the overall situation though, I have to agree with the odds. Katia will likely stay well north of the eastern Caribbean on Sunday. I find plenty that would keep it north and not so much that wouldn't. And the only land threat with a reasonable odds right now is probably Bermuda or extreme eastern Canada late next week.
The system in the northwest Caribbean is a lot more interesting.
|
TXEB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX 29.04N 95.43W
|
|
Nice stats. It's interesting to me that they completely dismiss (as in not even noted) anything below NC, like FL or a crossing to the GOM.
Personal note -- living on the TX Gulf Coast that is comforting on Katia - at this time of year whenever I see a wave developing along that direction I have memories of and Ike.
|
saltysenior
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 18
Loc: stuart,fl.
|
|
i can not figure out the %'s......why don't they just put out odds.... then vegas can get in the act. i'll bet 4 to 1 its a fish.. 
|
Juanjo
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
|
|
Long time reader and weather enthusiast. I just wanted to ask the experts what similarities or differences exist in the patterns (not sure where to get this information) when comparing Katia to Andrew. In plain sight, the paths seem similar to this date. I am not wishcasting or anything but we all know what happened when Andrew came to S. Florida and beyond. Something caused the hard left that Andrew did when past Miami's Latitude. I dont believe there is anything in this weeks environment that could cause that except the unknown of the gulf disturbance. I truly wish that Katia is a fish spinner like it is looking at this time.
Thanks.
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
The Atlantic high pressure ridge intensified and made a strong push westward and shoved Andrew westward. Since then the models have improved considerably - and significant model shifts are not as common. Human miscalculation still happens though - was a good example. So far, Katia is behaving as anticipated.
ED
|
Juanjo
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3
|
|
Thanks Ed. I figured something like that happened. I guess the only wildcard here is 93L no?
JJ
|
Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL 26.79N 80.28W
|
|
Hello all, what is going on with Katia this morning? The models don't seem as consistent as they did at this time yesterday. Also, as we all know 5 days out is really just 5 days out, but what gave the reason to believe in a westward motion that far out? Are they not confident enough in that pressure system in the east Atlantic that is supposed to provide weakness enough for a re-curve?
|
Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2089
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
I'm not quite sure that I understand the concern, i.e., is it with Katia, the models, or ? Regarding Katia, because of southwesterly wind shear and maybe some dry air entrainment (the western portion of the system is weak), I'm not quite sure that the storm ever reached hurricane intensity - but that is what she is listed as and its close enough. The states that they still expect Katia to resume a WNW track and I cannot presume to know what the confidence level is at , however, misjudging a portion of a forecast has little to do with confidence and a lot to do with mis-interpretation. The inconsistency in the models is something that happens - often - which is why they are simply a guide and not a forecast. Speaking of forecasts, the description of this Forum states: " Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". " , i.e., its a place to tell others what you think is going to happen.
I've given some thought to an earlier post regarding potential impacts from 93L on the track of Katia. Right now 93L is too weak and the storms are too far apart, however if 93L should intensify, the circulation around the new system could put the brakes on the southern limit of the extent of the east coast trough. This might then alter the magnitude of the weakness that Katia would encounter. Its a bit of a stretch and its certainly not a given - its just a thought.
ED
|
doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
|
|
A look at today's WV is revealing. 93L is being affected by the ULL on the Tex/LA border, but is generally under a huge upper high that dominates the midwest. If the ULL influence (shear) lessens 93 L will increase in size and some intensity. Right now it dominates the GOM with the exception of the NW portion which is under the influence of the ULL.
Now as for these effects on Katia...it appears that if Katia does not catch the base of the trough over the ATL to about 75W then Katia will not be able to move north but will be blocked by the eastern extent of the high, assuming it builds eastward, which I think the models anticipate. If 93L intensifies to near hurricane strength this could only amplify the strength of that upper high. I think this is why the level of uncertainty in the models is increasing at 96 hours or so.
All of this of course is speculative and based merely on my evaluation of the various visual images produced by satellite images, which is what I do.
I am curious what others may think along these lines.
It is all very interesting, and what keeps me involved in my hobby.
--------------------
doug
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
|
|
Looking at the latest sat loops, it appears that Katia may be a hurricane again. Is that an eye I see forming near 17.5N; 52.2W?
--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
|
Primo
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1
|
|
More of the models seem to show a westerly turn around day 5. Can you provide a little insight into the steering patterns that may develop after day 5? Just wondering if a strong bermuda high is forecast for next week which may drive the storm on an extended due western path similar to Andrew/Jeanne?
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
|
|
Some of the models are trending it back toward the West, but I think the has a pretty good handle on it keeping Katia just offshore of Hatteras as she moves North. The had the best handle on Irene, too.
As for Katia's strength, there is still dry air being pulled in from the South while the central convection continues to try to increase near the center. There won't be much strengthening unless that convection can overcome the dry air intrusion.
--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
Edited by MichaelA (Fri Sep 02 2011 02:45 PM)
|
cjzydeco
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Vero Beach, FL 27.68N 80.40W
|
|
Looking at the 1 PM CDT Tropical Storm Force Winds graphic, I got to thinking about what happens when two tropical cyclones get near each other. Could the Fujiwhara effect become a steering factor for Katia in 4-5 days? Which models would be best with picking up on such an interaction?
--------------------
Lat/Lon: 27.6 N 80.4 W
Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05, Ernesto '06, Faye '08
|
LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
|
|
That's a great image. Hold onto it and see how it changes.
A lot depends on how much Lee interacts with the front and if he gets cut off and how much rain there is in the piedmont/mtns.
Despite a slow moving center... there is such a huge area off shore right now that will remain offshore tapped into tropical moisture and could pump a continual flow of convection into the heart of the SE.
A lot of players and Katia just keeps moving further west and remaining weaker than expected.
It's a very complex set up and it's going to take some more reliable model runs and the actuality of what Lee does before it all comes together.
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
|
|
Katia has been rapidly intensifying. On the last frame you can clearly see the eye. has it up to 100mph
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 788
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL 27.83N 82.69W
|
|
Katia really wound up quickly this AM. As usual, intensity forecasting is still a crap shoot, isn't it? 
Still getting some dry air wrapping in from the S and SE, though. Cloud tops have warmed a bit recently.
--------------------
Michael
2013: 17/6/4
2013 Actual:
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
