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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 46 (Nate) , Major: 63 (Maria) Florida - Any: 73 (Irma) Major: 73 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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The Three Storms
      #92174 - Mon Sep 05 2011 03:17 PM

7:00AM EDT 8 September Update

Not all that much has changed since yesterday except Nate's continued southerly drifting has pretty much eliminated the chance of it moving much more northward, thus the eventual Track toward Mexico seems, by far, the most likely. It is forecast to landfall Sunday night as a hurricane in Mexico.

Katia continues to race to the northeast away from the US, eventually the remnants will likely be near Scotland Monday. Note for those in the UK, it will be a large extratropical storm, so winds will be high even into Ireland, Britain, and Wales.

Maria remains barely a tropical storm Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the northern Leeward islands and Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the lower Leewards have a tropical storm watch. The odds still favor a recurve before the US, and also keep it weak the entire time.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee continue to dump flooding rains in the Northeast, including parts of West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Viriginia and Marlyand, (Enough to go tubing on highways in some parts)


3:45PM EDT 8 September Update

Recon found stronger winds in Nate despite a lack of a organized core and poor appearance on infrared and microwave energy. Those in along the Gulf coast will want to continue to monitor Nate as it isn't moving much, and forecast is a bit rough with stationary/meandering systems.

Maria's holding as a weak sheared Tropical Storm, which implies a more westerly movement. It's likely to continue to be sheared for days, remaining relatively weak, which suggest the trend westward may continue. Odds still favor it staying east of Florida, but it may be a close call, close enough to monitor through next week.

9:15PM EDT 7 September Update

Tropical Storms Maria and Nate both formed today, one (Maria) heading toward the Northern Leeward Islands by Saturday and another headed toward the Mexican coastline (Nate).

Katia continues to move out to sea, interestingly it may arrive near Scotland as an extratropical storm before completely losing it's identity.

The odds still favor Maria staying east of the US, but this depends on trends over the next few days.

Based on the forecast track of Nate, it will enter into Mexico as a hurricane and has very little chance of getting rain up into Texas, unfortunately.


6:45AM EDT 7 September Update
Katia's moving northwest, a bit weaker this morning and will likely travel between the US and Bermuda and make no landfall. Tropical storm watches are up for Bermuda as they may see some tropical storm force winds coming from the east side of Katia as it passes. Along the US east coast, rough surf and strong currents along the beaches will likely continue.

Tropical Depression 14 is likely to become a Tropical Storm later today, and is forecast to near the northern Leeward islands on Satruday, those in that area should watch closely. Beyond that see the forecast lounge. Summary, it appears this system will stay just east of the US, but may get uncomfortably close, those in the Bahamas will likely want to watch it. Those in the US will want to watch the second half of next week, but currently odds only slightly favor it staying just east.. Aircraft recon is scheduled to check it out later today.

The area in the Gulf (96L) may develop today or tomorrow and move slowly, eventually drifting northward, those in the Northern gulf will want to watch this later. Dry air on the west side and shear will likely keep this system from getting too strong, however.

The other area near the Leeward islands likely won't develop in the near term, but may need to be watched if it remains intact as it moves into the Western Caribbean.

5PM EDT Sept. 6 Update
Invest 95L has become TD#14. At this time, FOURTEEN is expected to continue generally west to west-northwest through marginally favorable conditions for the next several days, and may become a concern for the northern islands later this week.

Meanwhile, the tail end of Lee's feeder leg which has merged with a stalled cold front over the Bay of Campeche in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico are beginning to show some signs of organization, and a Tropical Cyclone could develop in this region over the course of the next few days. This feature is being tracked as Invest 96L. Movement is presently estimated to be towards the south, or southeast, but there is a fair chance that this course reverses. Unless 96L does hook back around, it may just rain out over land south of the Bay of Campeche, or even cross over into the eastern Pacific.



Ciel
Original Update

Tennessee is currently getting the most rain from the remnants of Lee, as well as Mississippi, Alabama, Northwest Georgia.and Western North Carolina. Heavy, flooding rains, will be a problem there over the next day or two. Strong thunderstorms and possible tornadoes may occur along with the remnants of Lee.

The winds on the dry, west side of lee have fanned fires in Texas.

Hurricane Katia is nearing major hurricane status this afternoon, but the forecast track keeps it away from any land.

A new wave, east of the Caribbean in the Atlantic, designated 95L, is the one to watch over the upcoming week. Those in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico especially.



Beyond that odds currently favor a recurve away from the US with the trough over the United States. But it may be a close call. Based on the long range models and heading for a similar period, this one has a much better chance to affect the US coast than Katia ever did, however, so it is justifiably worth watching once the system develops. It currently has a 60% chance of development over the next two days.

Guadelopue/Leewards Radar recording for Maria's approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Maria Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Maria


stormplotthumb_14.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Maria (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Maria (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Maria

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Maria
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Maria -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Katia Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Katia


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Katia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Katia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Katia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Katia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Katia -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Nate Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Nate


stormplotthumb_15.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Nate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Nate (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Nate

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Nate
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Nate -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast, Watching Wave east of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92177 - Mon Sep 05 2011 04:54 PM

@5pm Monday: Currently a lot of tornado warnings on the eastern side of the Lee remnant, mainly through Georgia, but moving up into North and South Carolina. There are also a lot of severe thunderstorm warnings in that region.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast, Watching Wave east of Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92179 - Mon Sep 05 2011 10:02 PM

Best Track at 06/00Z put Katia at 115kts with central pressure at 946MB - thats knocking on the door at Cat IV, but final determination will probably be based on the satellite estimates. Katia has certainly become a powerful storm today. Probably some significant waves for the Bahamas, Bermuda and the East Coast later this week.
ED


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WeatherNut
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast, Watching Wave east of Caribbean [Re: Random Chaos]
      #92182 - Mon Sep 05 2011 11:24 PM

There were lots of warnings and a couple of tornadoes confirmed in the Atlanta Metro (mainly NW of town). The rain totals thus far have not been nearly as much as forecast here (we got about 2in)...go 100 miles north to Chattanooga and its a totally different picture... almost 12inches of rain at my Moms rain gauge...she had to empty it once cause it was full so it could be higher.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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Random Chaos
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast, Watching Wave east of Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92183 - Mon Sep 05 2011 11:24 PM

11pm officially upgraded to category 4:

946mb pressure
135mph winds

However, in the last hour, the cyclone has undergone some structural changes. Not sure if it is trying to start a new ERC or not, but if so, it's trying to make a enormous eye on the north. That band is separated from but tightly wrapping the core on IR on the SE through N portion and does not exist on the remaining 2/3rds of the storm. Strange evolution if it is an ERC, but there is no dry air entrainment evident there.


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syfr
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #92184 - Tue Sep 06 2011 08:01 AM

Numerous tornado warnings in east central NC this morning...watches out for most of central NC thru 2 PM...

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Joeyfl
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: syfr]
      #92187 - Tue Sep 06 2011 03:51 PM

Low taking shape in Bay of Campeche , storms limited but likely to see something here in next 48 hours per all model support, for now Mexico looks to see a threat, although models hinted at it moving north or northeast in earlier runs they now look to go more west, keep an eye on it....

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92189 - Tue Sep 06 2011 05:44 PM

Katia down to Category 2, still undergoing an ERC that started overnight last night. Once that finishes, it might restrengthen.

TD14 declared well out in the Atlantic. Track takes it toward Puerto Rico and the Bahamas.

Bay of Campeche activity is 30% chance of development.

West-Central Atlantic wave is 10% chance of development (this is between TD14 and the leeward islands)


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Joeyfl
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Random Chaos]
      #92198 - Wed Sep 07 2011 10:02 AM

Well 96l in Bay of Campeche is slowly getting organized based on satellite. Quite a bit of convection increase around low pressure center, recon will be leaving shortly to investigate and given there looks to low there and convection on increase, wouldn't be surprised to see new TD later today. The forecast looks difficult on this one as well with some going north, others more west and south. Given the stalled front drapped across Gulf I would be watching it closely as it may very, albeit very slowly crawl up frontal zone like ECMWF,NAM,HFIP suggest. All in Gulf should pay attention to this system...

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JoshuaK
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92200 - Wed Sep 07 2011 05:32 PM

96L has been designated as Tropical Storm Nate with 45 mph winds, currently expected to move into Mexico as a Cat 1 Hurricane later in the week. TD#14 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Maria, with the forecasted track shifting a little farther to the north. Hurricane Katia is losing steam thanks to some dry air entrainment, and looks like it might pose a threat to the Oriskanies and Scotland at the end of the 5-day track period, by which time it'll be Extra-Trop.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: JoshuaK]
      #92208 - Thu Sep 08 2011 10:39 AM

Nate getting better organized with bands wrapping around center. It also looks like hes moving slowly east. There has been some shift in models and many now take Nate more north albeit slowly. Be interesting to see new forecast and discussion on this matter.

Maria continues west and looks very unorganized and starting to wonder if she even has closed low level center. Recon suppose to fly out there today and we should have better idea. Her fast forward motion is aiding in her not getting organized. Also seeing she was forecasted to remain weak and she looks to be following that forecast maybe even more so then she may very well get further west then forecast, guidance here too have shifted. Now a bit more to left and still eventual turn north. Will have to see how she does next couple days and see if see can reorganize her self.


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weathernet
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92209 - Thu Sep 08 2011 11:38 AM

I must concur, that Maria is really looking "weathered" ( 'excuse the pun ). I can still see rotation close to where a small bit of new convection is trying to fire up, but it is hard to imagine that practically "naked swirl" will maintain itself much longer without some convection maintained close to the core. Frankly, with regards to potential downstream impact to the CONUS, I would much rather see Maria remain a more vertically stacked system and thus be more apt to start gaining latitude.

Of an interesting note, I found it interesting to see that the earlier runs of the Euro really "pegged" Maria's motion and speed, better than the GFS. Only reason I mention this, is that about a week ago, the longer ranges seemed to hint towards greater ridging in the W. Atlantic, and here we now have a weakened Maria still moving practically due Westward. Now for the first time, the 6Z GFS run not only has appeared to shift Maria more Westward, but also intensifies Maria again just north of Puerto Rico at about 72 Hr's. and then painstakingly "inches" WNW and brings Maria much closer to South Florida than in any recent runs. At the same time Nate might be a more serious threat to the N. Gulf Coast than originally thought. The GFS 500mb trough now appears oddly negatively tilted and over the middle of the country - quite a contrast to prior runs. Not sure if changes to the overall synoptic steering conditions are starting to exhibit themselves, but will be interesting to see today's 12Z runs of both the Euro and GFS and look for any consistancy.


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WeatherNut
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: weathernet]
      #92211 - Thu Sep 08 2011 01:04 PM

Something else I have noticed about the flow around what once was Lee. The "training" precipitation is flowing more out of the SE than out of the southerly direction. Katia is also still showing a slight westerly component to her northerly movement, not N or NNE as forecast. My worry is that the slight reorientation of the flow is enough to pull Katia slightly more west affecting Cape Cod. It will have to turn soon to hit NHC's next forecast point

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92214 - Thu Sep 08 2011 03:08 PM

Last vortex msg on Nate has pressure of 997Mb and Max outbound flight level winds of 81kts (93mph). They even flew around in that area to confirm. I'm not sure they believed it initially

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Sep 08 2011 03:10 PM)


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Joeyfl
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Re: Lee's Remnants moving over the Southeast [Re: WeatherNut]
      #92215 - Thu Sep 08 2011 04:08 PM

Would not shock me to see this very near or at hurricane intensity on next advisory. Recon finding some strong winds better than hurricane force. Track forecast does not look any more clear as they flip and flop. High altitude mission to get better handle on on the upper level steering winds. Hopefully will see some type of consistency tonight. For now best guess is to crawl slowly north after that it very hard to say...

Update lowest pressure found so far 995mb winds 85mph+ in southeast side at about 1200-1400 feet.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: The Three Storms [Re: MikeC]
      #92225 - Fri Sep 09 2011 11:57 AM

Added Guadelopue/Leewards Radar recording for Maria's approach Link Here

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ShanaTX
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A request [Re: Joeyfl]
      #92226 - Fri Sep 09 2011 04:09 PM

[OT]

With three systems out there it gets a little confusing (at least to me) when people don't post the name of the system they are talking about. I can usually eventually figure it out by backtracking who they are replying to and what system they are talking about, but it takes a few minutes.

It's slow here right now but if we get multiple systems that are generating alot of conversation it will be impossible.

[/OT]

Thanks!


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Ed in Va
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Re: A request [Re: ShanaTX]
      #92227 - Fri Sep 09 2011 04:52 PM

Looks lie the die has been cast for Maria, as the outlier, ECMWF, has now come in line with the recurvature path the other models have been forecasting for a day or two http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ope...;hour=Animation

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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watchinout
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Re: A request [Re: Ed in Va]
      #92228 - Sat Sep 10 2011 05:54 AM

Look at the IR AVN SAT. of Maria it looks as if it has formed 2 centers of circulation with one be pulled northwest and the other due west. pretty interesting.

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