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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 61 (Maria) Florida - Any: 71 (Irma) Major: 71 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Nate Forecast Lounge
      #92190 - Tue Sep 06 2011 08:37 PM

The disturbance, that formed from a stalled front, and a band off Lee, is now being tracked as invest 96L. This area currently has a 40% chance of development.

The lounge forecast takes a look mainly at the Euro Model, which suggests it moving gradually northward into the northeastern Gulf (Alabama/Florida Panhandle). Historically September Bay of Campeche systems tend to travel northward. Unfortunately there is no clear cut forecast yet, and we'll have to watch the trends, those along the Gulf of Mexico will want to watch this one. Unfortunately, odds do not favor it getting close to Texas.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: 96L (Bay of Campeche) Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #92193 - Tue Sep 06 2011 11:21 PM

I took a look at this system earlier today and again tonight. The models do move the system north but at a snail's pace and is likely to be down there for some time; at least a week. For the moment it is not clear what type of system...tropical or hybrid given the upper air pattern and amplification of these systems across the Pac NW and Canada. Post-Tropical Lee will be with us for the foreseeable future and it with its upper support should pull this system north and northeast in due time...it's going to be a long soak and no doubt many variables will come into play as we move forward.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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