Update: Monday, October 3, 2011 - 915AM
Ophelia is now a tropical storm located over extreme eastern Newfoundland and moving rapidly off to the east northeast while transitioning to an system. Cape Race reported a peak gust of 53 knots (61mph) at 03/1254Z.
Philippe survives as a heavily sheared tropical storm that will remain at sea in the central Atlantic.
The long range model hints at a developing system near south Florida toward the end of the week, while the is even later in developing this system. At the moment, this potential development is just speculation, i.e., fodder for the Forecast Lounge. The site has become quiet so the updates will be minimal until/unless something new materializes.
Update: Saturday, October 1, 2011 - 1130PM
Ophelia has passed well to the east of Bermuda - and has intensified to Cat IV. Ophelia has peaked and a much weakened cyclone could bring strong tropical storm force winds to eastern Newfoundland Monday morning.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND.
Weather Conditions at Cape Race, Newfoundland
Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 1,000 miles east southeast of Bermuda late Saturday evening . Although battered by strong outflow from Hurricane Ophelia, Philippe has managed to strengthen and has flirted with hurricane intensity Saturday evening - currently with sustained winds of 60 knots. In a few days Philippe is expected to turn to the north and north northeast and remain at sea. Philippe has also likely peaked and should begin to weaken under the strong northerly windshear created by Ophelia.
Update: Thursday, Sept. 29, 2011 - 6PM
Ophelia is now a Cat I Hurricane located well to the south southeast of Bermuda moving slowly to the north northwest. Ophelia is expected to pass to the east of Bermuda late Saturday afternoon.
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. Bermuda could begin to experience Tropical Storm force winds late Saturday.
Bermuda Weather Conditions
Bermuda Weather Radar
Tropical Storm Philippe, located in the central Atlantic well to the east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and in spite of the influence of significant windshear, has actually increased slightly in strength and is now expected to maintain identity as a tropical cyclone well into next week. On Saturday, Philippe should begin to take a westward track that should maintain itself for quite a few days.
Update: Wednesday, Sept. 28, 2011 - 1210AM
Ophelia and Philippe are doing a flip-flop. Ohelia had become a remnant low but is back to Tropical Depression status as the shear relaxed and convection rebuilt near an elongated center. Ophelia is just about stationary roughly 240 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A slow movement to the northwest and north northwest is forecast with improving chances for additional intensification. The track takes Ophelia east of Bermuda as a Cat I hurricane Saturday evening.
Philippe, under strong west southwesterly windshear is doing just the opposite. Philippe is a weakening tropical storm that is likely to dwindle to tropical depression status and remain that way - or become an open wave - for the next few days. Philippe should move northwest and then take a more westerly track as high pressure builds to the north of the system this weekend.
Update: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2011 - Noon
NHC continues with continuity on Ophelia, however its likely that the system has been an open wave for about 24 hours. Convection is located 200 miles to the east of the assigned center. Without convection reforming around a closed center, Ophelia cannot sustain classification as a tropical cyclone.
Philippe is fighting some shear as well in the far eastern Atlantic. Philippe will eventually move off to the northwest and north, however its projected intensification to minimal hurricane strength seems optimistic at this point.
The area of convection in the northern Bahamas (briefly tagged as Invest 91L) with a weak center east of Miami is drifting slowly to the west. From an organizational standpoint it looks better than Ophelia, however tropical development is currently not anticipated.
Original Post: Saturday, Sept. 24, 2011 - 1124AM EDT
Tropical Storm Ophelia continues as a sheared system that should remain weak while passing to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. Tropical Depression 17 has formed from Invest 90L and the system is moving west at 12 knots. TD17 is a small but well organized cyclone located about 350 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. With light shear and SSTs at 28C, additional intensification to Tropical Storm Philippe is likely tonight or early on Sunday. Both systems are expected to remain at sea.
ADDED: TD17 upgraded to TS Philippe at 24/21Z.
An area of convection over the Bahamas is associated with the southern extent of a trough and chances for tropical development are currently at 20%.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
1 HR Rainfall
Storm Total Rainfall
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Philippe Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Philippe
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Philippe
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Philippe (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Philippe
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Philippe
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Philippe -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Oct 04 2011 12:18 AM)