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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Nate) , Major: 59 (Maria) Florida - Any: 69 (Irma) Major: 69 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Ophelia Forecast Lounge
      #92247 - Mon Sep 19 2011 08:34 AM

At 19/12Z, Invest 98L was located about 1450 miles east of the Windward Islands roughly near 10.5N 38W. A slow movement to the west is likely for a few days. The system is at a low enough latitude that windshear should remain light and SSTs are at 29C. Chances for additional development are now up to 60% - which seems realistic. The convection has been slowly improving over the past 24 hours.

The models don't do too much with this one - yet.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Sep 20 2011 11:38 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92250 - Tue Sep 20 2011 01:27 PM

Would love some discussion here as 98 seems destined to be a TD and most likely Ophelia. And, many models take her west into the Carib which could portend a much stronger storm down the line if she veers from the tracks of Irene or Maria.

http://flhurricane.com/images/2011/clark17latest.png

A different time of year and a different type of storm... perhaps?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92251 - Tue Sep 20 2011 02:35 PM

Looks like it is ready for official status...what TD16?
As for the future, not much hype because there is so much ahead of it in terms of uncertainty. Two of the best performing models don't think much of this after a few days due to more shear as it enters the Carribean.
In my opinion this could be the last of the long track systems this season as the Atl. is cooling. The secondary season which ends in mid Oct. will focus, as usual, on the GOM and W. Carribean. Speculation is beginning on such a system two weeks out from now.

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doug


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc: 36.02N 75.67W
Re: Invest 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #92252 - Tue Sep 20 2011 03:52 PM

GFS has been good this year and has gone north at 12Z, so I cast my vote for recurvature well east of the CONUS.

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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Ophelia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92254 - Tue Sep 20 2011 11:41 PM

At 20/03Z, Invest 98L was upgraded to Tropical Storm Ophelia - still a very disorganized tropical cyclone.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Ophelia Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92266 - Thu Sep 29 2011 08:29 AM

Here we are almost 10 days later and Ophelia is still out there northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and looking better organized this morning. Ophelia is now heading off to the north northwest and should pass east of Bermuda on Saturday as a Cat I Hurricane.
ED


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