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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.50N 80.10E
Invest 95L Forecast Lounge
      #92324 - Sun Oct 16 2011 08:18 AM

With NHC development chances at 50% and the look of an organizing system, I would like to read what others are thinking.
I think more rain from a weak system will help Florida this week with its continuing need for rains to bring lake levels up before the dry season. Later season storms on occasion due strenghten rapidly in this general area. Wilma comes to mind as a recent example.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2011 10:43 AM)


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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Hurric]
      #92325 - Sun Oct 16 2011 09:56 AM

It looks like the storm could make it into the Gulf before the cold front gets down into the gulf. I have been watching this area ever since the showers did not abate. I am having trouble with understanding where the low pressure area is because there is a counter clock spin over the Bay of Campeche that shows up on the loops.This will be an interesting system no matter what the final outcome is.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2011 10:44 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #92326 - Sun Oct 16 2011 10:15 AM

Yeah would say it's a real issue of timing as to how fast it forms and intensifies ... a window for development.

Getting nicely consolidated if you ask me... haven't been staring at the loops and woke up this morning and wow there it is, looking like it belongs there.

A few similar storms and years come to mind here as well.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Oct 16 2011 10:44 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #92327 - Sun Oct 16 2011 10:52 AM

The system does indeed look like it is getting better organized. Should get caught up in the flow ahead of a cold front and move across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Looks like soaking rain for South Florida and perhaps Central Florida as well if the center tracks further north across the state. Will it get upgraded? After the storm last weekend, I have no idea.
ED


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92332 - Sun Oct 16 2011 03:07 PM

95L looks impressive at first glance. If farther SSE and weaker steering AND more gentle upper level flow, i'd suspect this would develop and would fit right in line with climotology.

Given the broad and ill defined center and coupled with marginal upper air conditions, my guess would be that this would fall short of a somewhat more defined tropical cyclone. That said ( and also despite a tremendous amount of model support ) it would seem that the GFS Model has a decent handle on the evolution of the E. CONUS trough & surface front that will bring in some cooler air into Florida by Wed. night. It is showing surface pressures with this Yucatan disturbance to fall to approx. 999mb in the Eastern Gulf. This would seem a bit low to me, however upper shear would be somewhat mitigated by the system's ENE motion at that time. Also, the pressure gradient caused by the strong surface high would then tend to cause windier conditions on both Central Florida coasts. There seems little doubt that the 2"-4" rain forecasted for extreme S. Florida, will likely be eclipsed and probably occur over a much larger part of the southern 1/2 of the state.

This weather event will be over by Wed. late and the counterclockwise flow behind the exiting low will further help push the front southward. Recon is scheduled to investigate this area tomm. ( Monday ). Some late season low pressure systems end up being classified only to be debated by post analysis. I can see this system falling into that bracket because should recon continue to find steady T.S. force winds ( even if removed from any specific center ) and also find lowering pressures, than it may be tagged as a Depression or posssibly named as a "Sub-Tropical Storm".

All in all, I do not believe that this will turn out as any serious wind event however do think that larger areas of Florida will be impacted by higher rainfall amounts that might range in areas from 6"-8" thus causing some localized flooding. Depending on tides, I might be slightly concerned about some storm surge impact from Florida Bay northward towards the Tampa region.


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92333 - Sun Oct 16 2011 03:58 PM

Quote:

The system does indeed look like it is getting better organized. Should get caught up in the flow ahead of a cold front and move across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Looks like soaking rain for South Florida and perhaps Central Florida as well if the center tracks further north across the state. Will it get upgraded?




Wilma was obviously a late season storm that moved towards S. Florida however given its strength would certainly NOT be the best analog for 95L. Another interesting analog could be Isbell of 1964. I think its origin was farther southeast than 95L. On Oct. 12 Isbell was almost in the exact location where a reformed center of 95L appears to be. Obviously upper air conditions were likely different in that year, given the rapid intensification that began to occur on Oct. 12 1964. Prior to that date this was a weak W. Caribbean system moving towads the Northwest. Just east of Cancun, Isbell suddenly strengthened into a tropical storm and started to move towards the northeast near ( or over ) W. Cuba and coming across the extreme S.W. Florida coastline with 130mph winds. I think this storm was the strongest of that particular year.

Once again, given the upper air dynamics, extremely unlikely to be a comparible event to our current disturbance however it does once again bear the potential threat that exists well into October.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92335 - Sun Oct 16 2011 11:30 PM

Right now we have the same conditions as we did last weekend.Very strong winds and very rough surf.The winds have picked up over the last 2-3 hours.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #92336 - Mon Oct 17 2011 01:15 AM

While the NHC has this system 50-50 of becoming a tropical cyclone; it's life at best will be short lived with the evolving synoptic pattern developing over much of the United States - an upper low parked over Alaska, an upper ridge parked over the SW USA and NW Mexico and a deepening trough over the eastern USA for much of the week and the weekend a frontal system that will drive south of Cuba to the Caribbean Sea will pull northward what is likely to be an extratropical system riding along this front and up the eastern seaboard. Temperatures will be well below normal for the eastern USA after experiencing near record heat Monday with temperatures in some locations near 90 degrees. I can't dismiss the possibility of this system having subtropical characteristics.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: berrywr]
      #92337 - Mon Oct 17 2011 02:35 AM

Nice blow up of convection, but am half expecting it to shear away by a..m. NHC now has 95L as "code red" at 60% chance of developing. Global models don't seem all to "excited" about development, though the concensus of dynamic models seem to indicate reaching minimum Storm strength. Looking at satelite, my best guess for a LLC would be 22.5 & 87.0

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: weathernet]
      #92340 - Mon Oct 17 2011 11:28 AM

The convection did indeed shear off to the northeast. At 17/15Z a small low-level swirl is evident at 21.7N 89.4W moving to the south southwest as indicated earlier this morning by the NOGAPS model (and to be honest, I would have considered that track forecast to be an outlier). This swirl is heading toward the Merida area.

Weather Conditions at Merida, Mexico

Its possible that a second low-level center could exist closer to the NHC position to the northeast as cyclonic turning is evident - perhaps a mid-level center that is currently moving north at 5 knots. The Recon later this afternoon is certainly needed for a better definition of this system.
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: Hurric]
      #92343 - Mon Oct 17 2011 04:00 PM

I haven't thought much about 95L's chances for development into a classic Tropical Cyclone, and that certainly remains the case as of today. Personally, I have given it a no better than 50-50 shot of getting named by Tuesday night, and that may now be dropping. Other very experienced members here have been higher and lower, and at one point the NHC officially put their best guess at a 60% chance.

The thing with 95L however, is that it is fairly tenacious. Having sat and spun over the Yucatan, Belize, Gautemala, etc. for several days, it still managed to acquire some tropical characteristics, and intensify. The fact that it was stuck over land which is surrounded on nearly all sides by very warm water is not missed on me. Nonetheless, its ingestion of much of the energy from east Pac TD12 probably juiced it a good deal, and some of that is still in play.

It remains to be seen if the small vortex visible on satellite today swings back under the deeper convection to its ene, or if possibly a new LLC forms, perhaps tonight. It is conceivable that either occurs, such that there is a noteworthy chance for another round of some organization before it all becomes too entangled with the approaching front.

Regardless of whatever incarnation of 95L ultimately crosses near or over Florida, the weather will likely continue wet and windy, with flooding the primary concern.


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Owlguin
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 52
Re: Invest 95L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #92344 - Tue Oct 18 2011 10:10 AM

It looks like the LLC is now moving ENE at a pretty good clip. Is there a chance it will catch up with the deep convection that does not seem to be moving as fast? What are the possiblities if that happens?

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