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Archives >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Rina Sheared Apart
      #92362 - Mon Oct 24 2011 08:09 AM

Update - Friday, October 28, 2011 - 8:30 PM EDT
Rina has decoupled near the northern tip of the Yucatan over the past day or so. Deep convection - with widespread rain and strong thunderstorms, the remnants of Rina - continues streaming into south Florida tonight, where numerous Flood Advisories and Special Marine Warnings have been issued. A few thunderstorms may approach severe limits, and could risk an isolated, brief waterspout and/or tornado.

Rina's post-tropical low level circulation is being shunted to the southeast, where it is merging with the remnants of Invest 97L over the northwestern Caribbean. The chance of this merger generating into a new tropical cyclone anytime soon is very low.

Ciel

Update - Thursday, October 27, 2011 - 7:30AM EDT
Rina has weakened more overnight and is barely a hurricane, and probably will be downgraded later today. The shear continues to win, and this sets the impact that the front north of it to basically push it back south, and weakening. Chances of it coming more northward are slim to none anytime soon. It is basically going to drift around in the same area of the Caribbean, under shear, for the foreseeable future.
'
The NHC forecast loops it back southward and degrades it to a depression or remnant low on the 31st.


Update - Wednesday, October 26, 2011 - 8PM EDT

Rina has weakened to a Category 1 hurricane as it has now entered the shearing zone, this along with the fact it never made it to major hurricane status is increasing the odds it will be weak if it nears Florida, still quite a bit of low confidence in the forecast but odds now slightly favor it staying mostly south of Florida, although parts of South Florida will likely still receive rain.

We are now Recording Cancun Radar

Update - Tuesday, October 25, 2011 - 6AM EDT
Hurricane Rina has strengthened overnight to a category 2 hurricane. Recon has found a slightly open eye, but very strong surface conditions in Rina. It is likely to strengthen some more today, possibly into a major hurricane. A visible eye may appear later today.

Hurricane Watches are now up for parts of the Yucatan up to and including Cancun and Cozumel. If the forecast verifies, conditions will begin to worsen in Cancun on Thursday with closest approach or landfall Late Thursday night/early Friday morning.



After 48 hours, conditions around Rina are expected to become hostile and weaken the storm, but until then it may have a shot at rapid intensification today, the official forecast caps at 115MPH, but that may be conservative with this setup.

The big question is for what occurs beyond this, the current official forecast (which is notably highly uncertain) weakens the storm and moves it more easterly, moving it slowly, and possibly looping. Some of the models bring it more northerly, with the GFDL model actually having it get caught up in the flow and rapidly dragged across south Florida. That seems not as likely fortunately. However, everyone in the cone of uncertainty needs to watch this system closely, and the windspeed probability graphics are one of the better ways to gauge storm probability.

In short Cancun and the northeastern Yucatan needs to start preparing for a major hurricane, Cuba and south Florida need to monitor the situation, especially toward the weekend. The largest concern is that the storm gets caught up in the easterly steering flow and rapidly dragged across Florida, the main reason that the National Hurricane Center is not predicting that is that the storm weakens enough not to be affected before it reaches that latitude. It will be a delicate balancing act, if Rina strengthens more than expected chances for it to get dragged further north go up. Therefore the next 48 hours will tell a lot. Watch closely today to see how much Rina strengthens.

We are now Recording Cancun Radar

Update - Monday, October 24, 2011 - 7PM EDT
Hurricane Rina continues organizing this evening, and indeed appears poised for the potential of an intensification phase, yet again, overnight. Very deep, "hot" convection is underway right over the center, and upper-level outflow is fairly well established all around, and especially so to the north of the cyclone.

On the other hand, dry air and high shear close to Rina could become a forecast buster. Rina remains a relatively small tropical cyclone, and as such, will continue to be susceptible to rapid fluctuations in intensity. Also, there is some question given Rina's very slow motion if an area of disturbed weather to its east, Invest 97L, may catch up to it enough that it begins interacting with it by mid week. Given Rina's size, such involvement could put another fly in the ointment of any well intentioned forecast.

On the whole, all interests in the western Caribbean and northeast up into Florida should be following this tropical cyclone closely, and be prepared for possible changes in track and/or intensity. Rina will likely continue to be a challenge to predict.

Of historic note, Hurricane Rina has joined an elite group of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Interestingly, a disproportionate number of these (half of this admittedly very tiny sample) made Texas landfalls.

Most recently, Humberto (2007) went from 25 Kts to 80 Kts within 24 hours.

At least three tropical cyclones on record have tied, or even surpassed that milestone:

Celia (1970) underwent an incredible initial Rapid Intensification, blasting from 30 Kts on 08/01 at 0600Z all the way up to a 100 Knot Major Hurricane within just eighteen hours. Celia was the first Major of the 1970 Atlantic hurricane season, and is believed to have reached peak intensity as it made landfall around Corpus Christi, Texas.

Arlene (1963) was estimated to have gone from 30 Kts on 08/01 1800Z to a 90 Kt Cat 2 within 24 hours. Hurricane Arlene was remembered for producing some of the most rainfall over Bermuda from any tropical cyclone in recorded history.

Flora (also in 1963) was estimated to have shot from 30 Kts on 09/29 0600Z up to 85 Kts within 24 hours. Owing to slow movement and a loop while traveling near and over land, Flora is remembered for being the wettest Tropical Cyclone on record in Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, and consequently was one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in history, taking over 7,000 lives.

Ciel


Update - Monday, October 24, 2011 - 2PM EDST
Just a quick update to note that Rina has intensified to hurricane status as confirmed by Recon and latest visible satellite imagery. Update bulletins will be issued shortly by NHC. In the last few hours Rina has become stationary.

ED

The forecast now takes Hurricane Rina to major hurricane status, and this seems likely given the current satellite presentation.

Original Post
Tropical Storm Rina has held overnight as a minimal tropical storm, it has good outflow to the north and moderate conditions for development, it is currently forecast to become a category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan, possibly Saturday.



Beyond that, things get tricky, both in track and intensity, but it is enough to say those in south Florida and the Keys will want to pay attention to this, as it is a slow mover it will take quite a while to reach Florida, quite possibly until 7 or 8 days from now. It is likely to be weaker if it makes it that far north.

Generally, if the storm remains weak it will more likely head inland over the Yucatan, whereas if it hits a good spin up and strengthens a good deal, it will likely head more northerly into the Gulf of Mexico before getting kicked eastward, likely being weakened in the process.

There is a good deal of dry air to the north and west of Rina, which will probably be the largest factor in keeping it weaker, the water temperature and other atmospheric conditions are mostly favorable. This morning satellite presentation is very good, and it is likely that Rina will strengthen some today. Recon is scheduled to leave around 11 AM this morning to take measurements in and around Tropical Storm RIna

Want to speculate on where Rina ultimately goes, let us know in the Forecast Lounge.


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Rina Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Rina


stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Rina (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Rina (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Rina

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Rina
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Rina -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97l


stormplotthumb_20.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97l (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97l (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97l

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97l
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97l -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Oct 28 2011 09:04 PM)


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adam s
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Re: Slow Moving Tropical Storm Rina [Re: MikeC]
      #92364 - Mon Oct 24 2011 12:02 PM

The key with Rina will be how far north will Rina go before it is picked up by the cold front. The further north that Rina gets the more likely Florida will be in play. The track of this storm reminds me of 2005 Wilma track. Timing will be everything. It is going to be a very interesting week.

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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92365 - Mon Oct 24 2011 12:03 PM

Rina is looking much improved today. How well will be know when the next aircraft arrives in the next couple of hours. I think they will find a stronger system than they anticipated. The NHC has many times in the past vastly under estimated intensity in this area, and Rina is about to reach some of the deepest oceanic in the area. The stronger the system, the more likely its pulled more north.

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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berrywr
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Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92367 - Mon Oct 24 2011 12:49 PM

As of 23/1645Z - Rina is in a "sweet" spot. In the here and now Rina cannot advance north or she'll be sheared apart in quick fashion. Winds aloft to her north are from the WSW at 60 knots, near 70 closer to FL. Water vapor imagery has very, very dry air to her NW off the GOM coasts of TX, LA and in the short term steering currents are next to nil. Rina does look good on satellite but slow moving systems will generate upwelling...cooler water and thus rapid intensification is highly unlikely; there too is interaction with land...the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Upcoming upper air pattern for later in the week is not as amplified as the onset of the most recent cool snap over the eastern USA; however the cooler temperatures will be on par. SSTs over FL are much cooler than the 30C/86F Rina is over. Given that Rina will be down there for most of this week; there's no reliable model data that can tell us where Rina is going and in this particular lounge it would be unwise to suggest these possibilities until later in the week.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92368 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:03 PM

RECON is currently flying through the western periphery of Tropical Storm Rina. Flight level, 5000ft/ 850mb winds are a bit higher than they were yesterday.
Winds on the western side of the storm are near 65 mph at the surface and Rina could be upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane later today.

The 12Z SHIPS Intensity Forecast has a 29% chance for a 25 knot increase in wind speed.

More to come...

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2011 03:26 PM)


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CDMOrlando
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Re: Slow Moving Tropical Storm Rina [Re: MikeC]
      #92369 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:09 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 17:58Z
Mission Number: 2
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 17:40:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°07'N 83°03'W (17.1167N 83.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 187 miles (300 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,346m (4,416ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NW (319°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 52° at 68kts (From the NE at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NW (320°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,460m (4,790ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:37:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center

TROPICAL STORM RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL182011
205 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS STRENGTHENED. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO
UPGRADE RINA TO A HURRICANE AND TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN

Edited by CDMOrlando (Mon Oct 24 2011 02:10 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92370 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:12 PM

Line D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)

Line H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)

991mb gives us a Maximum Possible Wind Speed of : 84 mph
1000mb-991mb= 9+75mph=84mph

So Rina is currently below the pressure/ wind speed curve.

NHC has upgraded Rina to a Category One Hurricane based on RECON data.

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2011 02:16 PM)


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Ed in Va
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #92371 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:28 PM

And scheduled to be a major in 48 hrs...no change to track with special advisory.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #92372 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:29 PM

Rina is in the area where Wilma bombed out to have record low pressures in October 2005, with the momentum currently, I think it has a very good shot at becoming a major, beyond the Yucatan is still lounge territory, though.

Map with Wilma and Rina plotted


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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92373 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:32 PM

Rina is now forecasted to be a Cat 3 by Weds morning. Could get there sooner if it doesnt move more WSW. Movement will be slow over next 24-36hrs

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Owlguin
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Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #92374 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:40 PM

What effect will the intensification have on the forecast? Would it be more likely to move further north?

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adam s
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: scottsvb]
      #92375 - Mon Oct 24 2011 02:40 PM

Does anyone know what a stronger storm will do? The models never predicted a stronger storm.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea [Re: Owlguin]
      #92376 - Mon Oct 24 2011 03:02 PM

Keep in mind that the NHC forecast did have Rina reaching hurricane status in a few days. Now it seems that Rina will be a stronger hurricane, but I wouldn't expect much change, if any, in the forecast track. Normally a stronger cyclone will develop more of a northward component in its movement - but not always. Other factors such as the strength of the ridge to the north will also determine when and if Rina takes on a more northward track. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf, weaken the ridge and if it can weaken it enough, Rina could respond with a more northward track. However, that is still a few days away and the models still have mixed solutions.

With regard to the model outputs and intensity, a couple of days ago when Rina was still an Invest, the GFS model did develop the storm into a strong hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico - and then it backed off from that solution. Remember, the model is not the forecast for the storm, it is a guide that aids the meteorologist in developing the forecast. Although the models have improved considerably in the past decade, they are still far from perfect, i.e., the human input is still required.

Another factor could be the storms current slow speed. If Rina slows to a crawl (and it may already be there), upwelling will cool down the SST and the storm could weaken - but that usually takes a couple of days and Rina should drift slowly to the northwest later tonight.
ED


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #92378 - Mon Oct 24 2011 03:31 PM

Quote:

Rina is in the area where Wilma bombed out to have record low pressures in October 2005, with the momentum currently, I think it has a very good shot at becoming a major, beyond the Yucatan is still lounge territory, though.

Map with Wilma and Rina plotted




Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 57 (Irene), in Florida: 2191 (Wilma).

That is somewhat Scary.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #92379 - Mon Oct 24 2011 03:51 PM

Recon at 24/1927Z indicated pressure is now down to 989MB. Flight level winds unchanged at 68 knots.
ED


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doug
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92380 - Mon Oct 24 2011 03:55 PM

Interesting, as the WV imagery is suggesting drier air is infiltrating from the NW, and has had an impact on the structure a bit.

--------------------
doug


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92381 - Mon Oct 24 2011 04:01 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 19:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 19:27:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°08'N 83°02'W (17.1333N 83.0333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 185 miles (298 km) to the SW (216°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,329m (4,360ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 93° at 67kts (From the E at ~ 77.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 320° to 140° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 17:37:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

Notes~danielw: 11 degree F difference in the Eye temperature/ dewpoint. Storm center is working properly. Evacuating air through the Center.
EYE is open to the Southwest and is elliptical with a 20nm length and 16nm width. Orientation of the EYE during the fix was NW to SE.


Min Central Pressure of 989mb give a Max Possible Wind Speed of 86mph.
Rina is still under the pressure/ wind speed curve.

Edited by danielw (Mon Oct 24 2011 04:05 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea [Re: MikeC]
      #92385 - Tue Oct 25 2011 02:51 AM

Based on its first pass back in, Recon has just reported a minimum central pressure down to roughly 977mb, with maximum 10 second average surface winds measured by the SFMR of 89kts (102.4mph), 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the WNW of this center fix.

Another upgrade to Rina is looking highly likely by 5AM.

It will be interesting to see what subsequent passes show


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cieldumort
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Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly [Re: MikeC]
      #92390 - Tue Oct 25 2011 07:40 PM

Pressures are falling again, and Rina is likely set to be declared the Atlantic's fourth major hurricane of 2011, in short order.

The latest recon mission has just made a pass through the center and found a minimum central pressure of roughly 966 mb, a decrease of approximately 4mb in less than two hours. It is not clear if winds are substantially responding to this pressure drop yet - it's probably a little too soon - but it's almost certainly having an impact, and barring a quick reversal, Rina should get upgraded yet again, very soon.

Here's some impressive data from the latest Vortex

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly [Re: cieldumort]
      #92393 - Tue Oct 25 2011 08:19 PM

As noted above. Look for an Increase in wind speed and/ or size of Hurricane Rina in the overnight hours.

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)

22 degree temperature/ dew point spread. Rina is entering Turbo Mode.
A large spread is seen in well functioning Tropical Cyclones. The Storm Machine is working very well.

1000mb minus 966mb equals a Max Possible wind speed of 109 mph. Rina is now Above the pressure wind speed curve.

I see a pressure of 962.7mb on the same leg just prior to the reported pressure of 966mb. That would increase the Max possible wind speed to 112 mph~danielw

Edited by danielw (Tue Oct 25 2011 08:28 PM)


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Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center