Central Florida Hurricane Center 2012

Well, here's what I see. Looks to me as if Rina has peaked. That is not to say that she could'nt "bomb out" one more convective surge, thus perhaps causing her eye to become temporarily re-defined again. Her core really seems fragile and as a whole, this hurricane looks highly susceptable to a rapid weakening once the southwesterly shear begins to overtake her. On one hand it is possible that Rina's initially small wind field not only aided in her fast "spin up", but this factor may have been one contributing reason as to why the dry air (consistantly never to far to the storms North and West) has yet to fully be entrained into her circulation. Rina's wind field may have expanded a little bit but overall her overall envelope of circulation seems to offer very little to deflect even moderate upper level shear. It no longer appears that her "heat engine" is nearly exhausting any extent of westerly outflow, as noted by today's visible and Water Vapor Sat. loops. Aside from helping to maintain her core vacuum thus allowing pressures to continue to fall ( or maintain ), a strong outflow can at least temporarily mitigate some moderate upper level shear. My guess is that we will soon see anywhere from a 4-10 mb rise in surface pressures and will only maintain her identity as a hurricane for perhaps an additional 24-30 hr's.

That all said, I can see "one potential solution" to Rina maintaining her core structure, longer. Not only that, but this would be the one somewhat reasonable solution that "could" result in a Florida Keys / extreme S. Florida landfall - as a small minimal hurricane. . Rina would need to slowly track EAST of her projected forecast track and almost immediately commence a NNW motion. At the same time Rina would need to move quite slow, so NOT to move as far north as forecasted This would aid in her remaining under the upper level anticyclone which is forcast to start sliding eastward, and all the while maintaining her overall vertical structure. Then, starting as soon as about 24 hours, perhaps when the beginning influences of the 500mb flow begin to influence a N.E. to ENE motion, Rina would potentially be close enough and under the edge of the upper high and still only marginally being impacted by encroaching SW upper shear.. Then short term motion would cause Rina to move near or over the Western tip of Cuba, all the while increasing her forward motion. This N.E. ( or ENE ) motion would help negate the Southwesterly shear thus weakening would be slower to occur. Theoretically, I could see Rina on such a track that could permit the integrety of the hurricane's structure to maintain itself until well north of the N. Bahamas.

For this to happen Rina would need to start moving NNW ( or even halt any westward motion during the next 6 hours or so ), and then even start to show an "eastward" component of motion ( i.e. NNE ) as early as tomorrow afternoon. I have not seen any model support to consider this much of a possibility.

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