Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially over. 2018's runs June 1st-Nov 30th, 2018.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 69 (Nate) , Major: 87 (Maria) Florida - Any: 97 (Irma) Major: 97 (Irma)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Nothing Much Going On...
      #92430 - Sat Nov 26 2011 10:27 AM

...which is normal for this time of year. A well-formed mid-level swirl is located at 31.5N 37W at 26/15Z moving to the southwest. No deep convection is evident. Although wind shear is light in the area it does increase to the south and the system is over SSTs of 24C.
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92434 - Tue Nov 29 2011 08:37 PM

NHC has posted a 10% chance of cyclone formation with the system located a few hundred miles north of the Northern Leeward Islands.
Low level swirl seen on the western side of the system and clouds over the far eastern half.

Of note is a tight cyclonic gyre in the Western Caribbean.

Both systems can be seen here:
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/high_resolution/900_20111129-eastcoast.jpg

Link Courtesy of Stu Ostro, TWC

Edited by danielw (Tue Nov 29 2011 08:38 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92441 - Sat Feb 04 2012 12:12 PM

I bet if it was JUNE 4 instead of FEB 4 today we'd all be on about that 'feature' in the W Caribbean!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: srquirrely]
      #92442 - Sat Feb 04 2012 09:16 PM

I was just looking at that on the Sat as well...thought the same thing and figured I would check in here. Nice convection near western Cuba. This and the approaching cold front are supposed to bring us some rain tomorrow which will be nice. An interesting weather weekend. Does anyone here notice that the water in the central GOM is in the mid 70s this first week in Feb?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 348
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: srquirrely]
      #92446 - Sun Feb 05 2012 05:25 PM

Quote:

I bet if it was JUNE 4 instead of FEB 4 today we'd all be on about that 'feature' in the W Caribbean!



Looks like we called this one (see the other threads). With all of the warmth out there this isn't too surprising. Hope it brings a solid rain event to us!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Nothing Much Going On... [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #92470 - Fri Apr 13 2012 12:30 AM Attachment (272 downloads)

A few days ago my curiosity got the best of me and I started looking at the current Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures. While the GOM SSTs are only part of the fuel chain during Hurricane Season I like to glance at them now and then prior to the Official season starting.

I was somewhat startled when I looked at the 7 day average SST for April 10th,2012.
Since 1999, the current 7 day average image is the lowest/ coolest GOM SST image. With all of the weather Records being broken over the last 4 weeks I expected to find warm SSTs in the Gulf.
They aren't there.

See the attachment above for a contact sheet of the images. 1999 is the first image through to 2012.
The image with the black square is the 24th of August,2005. Just prior to Katrina. Basically the warmest the GOM has been in the last 10 years or so.

In viewing the full size images I see that the Temperature scale is NOT the same in all of the images. This year in particular it is 4 degrees Celcius cooler than last year. Apparently they are using a sliding scale... for some reason.

Images may be viewed at http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html

April12,2012 7 day average SST_scale end at 32 C


April 12,2010 7 day average SST_scale end at 28 C


April 10,2005 7 day average SST_scale end at 30 C





Edited by danielw (Fri Apr 13 2012 12:59 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
May 2012 Preseason [Re: danielw]
      #92501 - Sun May 13 2012 03:04 PM

Sorry about the length of the post. Forecaster is very good with the week ahead forecast. Starting Wednesday Morning.
Models can be inaccurate!
Bold emphasis added~danielw
Posted one hour after transmission:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
203 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

VALID 12Z WED MAY 16 2012 - 12Z SUN MAY 20 2012

...COASTAL LOW/NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAROLINAS NEXT
WEEKEND...

OUTSIDE THE 00Z CANADIAN GUIDANCE BEYOND FRIDAY MORNING...THE
AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN. TROUGHING BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE RIDGING EXISTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND A DEEP CYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT...USED A
40/30/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 50/50 BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS PREFERENCE LED TO GOOD CONTINUITY.

THE DEEP CYCLONE/NOR'EASTER FORECAST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HYBRID SYSTEM AS IT HOVERS
NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. EVEN IF IT REMAINS COLD CORE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
LEAD TO LOWERED PRESSURES/DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE BASE OF ITS UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT...NORMALLY A PROBLEM WHEN A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE
FORMS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND BERMUDA. HEAVY COMMA HEAD
RAINS/WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IF THE SYSTEM TAKES A
MORE COASTAL ROUTE AS SEEN IN THE 00Z ECMWF. IF IT DEVELOPS AND
STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD EVOLVE INTO A WILDFIRE CONCERN
FOR SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH ARE WITHIN THEIR
ANNUAL SPRING DROUGHT...SIMILAR TO THE SITUATION SEEN DURING
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREAS DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY MAY 2007. THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AS SEEN BY ECMWF OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
IS DIFFERENT THAN THAT OF 2007 EVOLUTION OF ANDREAS...BUT THE
FINAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANDREAS INTO ITS SUBTROPICAL FORM IS SIMILAR
IN THE MID LEVEL H500 FLOW OF THIS EVENT.

VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC/WESTERN CARRIBEAN AND OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALREADY HAS A SYSTEM READY TO GO AND WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS. THE ATLANTIC SIDE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD ALSO HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WITH A
LARGE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORTING THE OPERATIONAL
RUN WITH THE SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND.
BEYOND THIS TIME
FRAME LONGER TERM RUNS OF GFS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
IN THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN WITH AN EXIT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS IS ANOTHER INDICATION THAT THE MODELS RECOGNIZE FUTURE
FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT CONDITIONS OR CYCLOGENESIS.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE
WITH AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LOW SOUTHWARD OF
THE EARLY PRELIMS OFF THE SC COAST AS A BETTER FIT TO LAGGED
AVERAGE FORECASTS OF ECMWF AND GFS.

AFTernooN FINALS REMAIN THE SAME. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR EARLIER PROGS
BY HIRES UKMET OVER CONUS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOUTHEAST SEABOARD
LOW FORECAST SE OF CAPE FEAR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 00Z ECMWF DAYS
6-7.
ROTH/ROSENSTEIN


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: May 2012 Preseason [Re: danielw]
      #92504 - Mon May 14 2012 03:08 PM

I believe this forecast is related to the spurious GFS system that is forecast for later this week in the NW Caribbean..

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2012

NOTE: THERE IS A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT EASTERN
YUCATAN/BELIZE/EASTERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN-EASTERN HONDURAS
DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND PEAKING INTO THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THIS IS
A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., danielw, Clark, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 7630

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center