Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2211
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Last year the initial thoughts were for a less busy season but that was not the case. Hurricane season starts on June 1st and once again initial SST projections suggest a quieter season, but after last year, anything is possible.
We'll keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin during the long quiet time of Winter and Spring just in case out-of-season activity pops up.
ED
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Edited by MikeC (Sun Feb 05 2012 01:52 PM)
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Ljefferson
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: Sebastian,FL
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We have to be ready.Because florida got drenched with storms in 04 and that wad a weak elnino.And Andrew hit.during a elnino
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 989
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
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A new season and a new Saffir-Simpson scale.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) is undergoing a minor modification for 2012 in order to resolve awkwardness associated with conversions among the various units used for wind speed in advisory products. The change broadens the Category 4 wind speed range by one mile per hour (mph) at each end of the range, yielding a new range of 130-156 mph. This change does not alter the category assignments of any storms in the historical record, nor will it change the category assignments for future storms.
Changes:
Category 3 now ends at 129mph (previously was 130mph)
Category 4 now is 130mph to 156mph (previously was 131 to 155mph)
Category 5 is now 157mph and higher (previously started at 156mph)
Note that if you used Knots before, there is no change.
Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3444
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The 2012 Colorado State April Hurricane Forecast is due out today.
The preliminary version released on March 21 wasn't particularly surprising so the newer version may be just that.
A Newer Version.
I have noticed an El Nino pattern beginning to develop off of the South American Coast over the last few weeks. To what level it will develop is the question of the week.
Today's April Hurricane Forecast and the March update to the CSU Forecast and other Forecasts may be viewed at the following link.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/
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