CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Although still a few days out from the OFFICIAL Start of Hurricane Season for the Eastern Pacific Basin (Season always starts on May 15th), there are already several 'Invests' that are up. One of which (90E) has several of the computer models developing into a tropical cyclone of at least Tropical Storm status, and 2 of which develop into a Cat 1 and Cat 3 Hurricane, respectively.
It appears that although the Atlantic Basin will return to Normal (or slightly below normal) activity for 2012, the Eastern and Central Pacific Basins might very well see an Slight Increase in activity this hurricane season, as we seem trending towards weak to moderate El Nino conditions in the Pacific.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Satellite Service Division of NOAA currently has two numbered systems in the Eastern Pacific.
90E near 105W and 91E near 110W.
90E
91E
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1040 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Edited by danielw (Sat May 12 2012 06:10 PM)
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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We've been keeping an eye on an area of disturbed weather some distance SW of Acapulco over the weekend.
After several rounds of deep and sustained convection during the typical nighttime convective maximum cycle the past 48 hours, the disturbance has finally consolidated sufficiently near and over the developing center of circulation (although the LLCC is currently a tad SE of the deepest core convection at this hour), and has also attained the requisite degree of organization, that tropical cyclogenesis has occurred and "Out of Season" advisories are now being initiated on Tropical Depression ONE-E.
< Excerpts from the National Hurricane Center's Advisory / Discussion are shown below IN ALL BOLD BLUE TEXT LIKE THIS >
THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION ... THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ... THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.
Although it may make it to weak tropical storm strength, it appears that the window of opportunity for intensification will be a short lived one, with the system expected to begin feeling the effects of adverse upper level westerly wind shear, beginning as early as tomorrow.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME ... HOWEVER ... GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS.
(Graphic Courtesy of Weather Underground)
If the cyclone does attain Tropical Storm Intensity, it will become the First Named Storm of the 2012 Hurricane Season and be named 'Aletta'.
It's not at all unusual, however, for a storm to form this early in the season in the Eastern Pacific Basin, Second only to the Typhoons that Dominate the Western Pacific Basin, in terms of the sheer number of tropical cyclones that occur each year, and lends credence and justification for the National Hurricane Center's decision to Officially Begin Hurricane Season in the Eastern Pacific on May 15th, instead of June 1st, as it is in the Atlantic Basin.
...
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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