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Archives >> 2012 Storm Forum

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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92576 - Fri May 25 2012 01:08 PM

I'm thinking this season is going to be a little more active than average with 17 storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major canes.

This early start will make up for a slower late September and October.

I see the GOM being hit from La. Eastward to Panama City by a major cane. I see fewer mid Atlantic storms and an active Western Carribean year.

The Eastern seaboard from the Ga/Fla line north will not see much action but will see a few minor systems make glancing blows.


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gsand
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 14
Loc: Palm Bay, FL 28.00N 80.39W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92600 - Sun May 27 2012 09:58 AM

Greetings all from Palm Bay.

Hard year to predict but I'll go with 16/10/5.

Stay safe everyone!

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991
Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004
2014 Forecast- 11/4/1


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 399
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: gsand]
      #92621 - Sun May 27 2012 06:03 PM

I'm going to stick with my general theory that activity will be higher than normal: 19 Tropical Storms, 10 Hurricanes, and 6 Major Hurricanes.

I wonder if the 2 early season storms will bump the number up a bit. Either way, I think systems will form often, but will often be sheared. The ones that make it though, will have very warm waters to work with. so a higher percentage of storms should make it to major Hurricane status.

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TD/TS/HU/MH
16/15/09/04 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals

http://blog.bloodstar.org


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1070
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92654 - Mon May 28 2012 08:08 PM

Greetings, everyone. I hope you are having a safe and healthy 2012.

My best guess for 2012 is for 14 storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors.

It is worth noting that we have had two named storms, already.

Despite these roughly "average" totals (at least since 1995 has been concerned), I expect a greater chance for landfalls, including higher than average odds of US landfalls.

If I am right, and we have fewer names, but more landfalls than usual, that means that a larger percentage of 2012 named systems than usual in the Atlantic basin will impact land - which would just go to show how average (and of course even below average totals) do not necessarily result in average to below average impacts.

My rationale for 14, 6 and 3 may easily be busted - and perhaps by a lot, should:

1) an El Nino begins prior to September (expect my guess could be much too high in that case) , OR

2) we actually slide back into a La Nina phase by September (expect my guess could be much too low in that case).


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3454
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: cieldumort]
      #92655 - Mon May 28 2012 09:22 PM

Never tried this before. I'll go with 15, 7 and 3. That's way off the chart.

Edited by danielw (Mon May 28 2012 09:23 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 250
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: LoisCane]
      #92656 - Tue May 29 2012 12:52 AM

I'll go on the high end at 16/8/3 with the early start. I'm never any good at this anyways!!

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2014 Season Prediction: 14/4/2


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92657 - Wed May 30 2012 12:20 AM

A total of 28 forecasts were submitted last year, but only 18 so far this year with just 2 days to go before the thread is closed on June 1st. No reasoning is required - just submit your best guess on what the totals for Named Storms/Hurricanes/Major Hurricanes will be for this season.
Cheers,
ED


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okihabu
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Spring Hill, Florida 28.41N 82.53W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92658 - Wed May 30 2012 09:27 AM

My predictions for 2012 are 13-8-4.

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beachcrafts
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 4
Loc: in Boynton Beach, Fl 26.53N 80.10W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92659 - Wed May 30 2012 11:48 AM

I'm going with 15/5/3

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: beachcrafts]
      #92660 - Wed May 30 2012 02:10 PM

I've posted in another forum here... can't remember what I posted tho am sure Ed does...

Interesting reading the thoughts here as we watch two pre-season storms form close in and affect land.

I think the thoughts are more interesting the number and I'd like to ask how many of the storms would affect land (US in particular) as an added number of interest.

I think I said 13/6/4 but would also think on upping that first number if another early storm forms.

Early storms form for many reasons, in many areas of the basin.

So far I've driven through weather from both Alberto and Beryl, am wondering on where Chris will form.. and how many will affect land as I think the pattern favors continued close in forming storms... maybe I'm wrong. Time will tell.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: LoisCane]
      #92662 - Thu May 31 2012 12:14 PM

Actually you posted 14/8/4 - it is on Page 1 of this thread. I'll leave your numbers as that unless you post something different later today.

The latest NCEP forecast issued on 5/29 still suggests a weak El Nino during the mid and latter portion of the upcoming season.
ED


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srquirrely
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: SARASOTA 27.27N 82.53W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92663 - Thu May 31 2012 05:47 PM

18/9/4 Just 'cause...

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2912
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92664 - Thu May 31 2012 07:02 PM

14/6/3 for me this year

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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 12
Loc: Orlando
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92667 - Thu May 31 2012 08:26 PM

14 / 8 / 3

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere 80.30N 50.63E
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92668 - Thu May 31 2012 11:58 PM

....and with 3 minutes remaining until the official Atlantic Hurricane Season & what might be the final entry before midnight (well, ok "adjustment" to entry), armed with some bad canned Pabst beer and some week old twinkies by my side..... will make the strategic adustment to my forecast to be: 14/7/1

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Outlook for 2012 [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #92670 - Fri Jun 01 2012 12:02 AM

This thread is now closed and we'll summarize the results at the end of the season. Thanks to all of you who participated - including my own, we ended up with 24 forecasts. The average of all forecasts: 14/7/3.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
2012 Seasonal Forecast Results [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94024 - Thu Oct 18 2012 11:15 AM

Although the Season still has about six weeks remaining, the trends in the basin hint that the season is rapidly coming to a close.
2012 was yet another highly active season with a total (so far) of 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. If the end of the season does not produce anymore activity, 2012 would become the first season to record 17 named storms. The pre-season expectation by many (myself included) was that a weak El Nino was going to occur and that the seasonal tropical activity would be low, but Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific stayed neutral - and busy seasons often occur during ENSO neutral conditions. As a group, CFHC didn't do so good this year with an average total forecast error of 7. The CSU forecast in April was 10/4/2 - for a total error of 13 - and every CFHC forecast did better than that! The season started with 4 named storms before July 1st - which is a record - and quickly put a dent in many of the early season predictions. A total of 24 forecasts were submitted and the average forecast was 14/7/3. The forecasts were graded for total deviation (plus or minus) from the actual number in each of the three categories and then totaled to get a final score for each forecast. The levels of skill and the number of forecasts in each grouping were as follows:

SCORE
0-2 Outstanding (none)
3-4 Excellent - 3 forecasts
5-6 Good - 8 forecasts
7-8 Fair - 8 forecasts
9-12 Hmm - 5 forecasts

The best score this season was 4 by stormtiger, Lamar-Plant City, and srquirrely (thats two years in a row with good scores for Lamar-Plant City and srquirrely). If another named storm should occur before the end of the season, srquirrely would become the outright winner with a score of 3. Good forecast scores of 5 or 6 were recorded by B.C. Francis, weathernet, Hurricane Frederick 1979, M.A., riche, gsand, danielw and IMTechspec.

I'll start a new thread in January with a first outlook for the 2013 season. 2007 might be an analog year for 2013 but thats still uncertain at this early date.
ED


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2012 Seasonal Forecast Results - Updated [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94111 - Fri Oct 26 2012 11:40 AM

With Sandy and Tony, the totals for the season are now 19/10/1 - a remarkably busy season, yet the hurricane drought in Florida has now reached 7 years and 2 days which is also remarkable.

The adjusted tally is as follows:


SCORE
0-2 Outstanding (none)
3-4 Excellent - (none)
5-6 Good - 2 forecasts
7-8 Fair - 5 forecasts
9-15 Hmm - 17 forecasts

Certainly not a good year for seasonal forecasts
Bloodstar (19/10/6) and srquirrely (18/9/4) both had good forecasts with a score of 5.
ED


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