cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
A well defined, non-tropical low, already well northeast of Bermuda, has slowly been acquiring some subtropical and tropical characteristics. This feature has been tagged as Invest 95L.
Invest 95L 06/18/2012 1602UTC
95L is presently located near 37.8N 61.7W and moving north-northeast, but is forecast by models to hook right within the next 24-48 hours or so. On this course, 95L will remain over marginally warm waters for several days, and it is possible the cyclone will become a named storm - but a real fish spinner.
As of 12:30 EDT, today, June 18, 95L has maximum sustained winds estimated at 40 knots (roughly 45MPH). Convection has taken hold right over the LLC, but is still rather shallow, as is typical of hybridized cyclones developing over cooler waters.
NHC currently gives 95L a 30% probability of becoming a named storm within 48 hours.
Edit 4:08PM EDT 06/19/12: 95L Becomes "Chris"
Edit: 10:00 AM EDT 06/21/12: Chris becomes our first official hurricane of 2012
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
The vigorous, formerly nontropical gale center we have been watching for the past few days, has acquired enough tropical characteristics to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Chris, the third named storm of this active and early start to the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Chris is currently estimated to have maximum sustained winds of about 40 knots, same as yesterday. While there is still some time for Chris to strengthen further, water temps are only marginal, and Chris remains relatively colocated with its parent upper level low, both of which should serve to put limits to intensification.
As of 4:30PM EDT today, Chris is located near 39N 58W, many hundreds of miles east of New Jersey, and is moving to the southeast. This direction is forecast to end perhaps later today or tomorrow, with the cyclone then continuing on to the east-northeast, performing a loop along the way, to ultimately approach England in whatever incarnation is left of "Chris" at that time.
While it is noteworthy that 2012 has had a far more rapid start to things than even the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season, when we were still only on "Arlene" by this date, early starts generally do not necessarily equate with hyperactive seasons, overall.
|
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
At 19/21Z, TS Chris was located about 560 miles south southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland, moving east at 7 knots with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots. The eastward motion should continue for a couple of days followed by a turn to the northeast and eventually to the north. As noted above, little change in strength is anticipated and the storm should remain well at sea during its lifetime.
While windshear is rather light, SSTs are rather chilly - Chris will be traveling over ocean temperatures in the 23-24C range with a few pockets at 22C. Earlier today, convection finally wrapped around the well defined gale center and the system acquired enough tropical characteristics for upgrade to tropical cyclone status. The convection is shallow and tenuous but for the moment it has persisted. When the system begins to move north in a few days, transition back to an system is likely.
Chris is the third earliest 3rd storm of the season - only 1887 and 1959 had earlier dates for the third storm of the season. 1887 was a highly active season while1959 had a normal level of activity.
ED
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
Chris has continued to maintain an eye since late yesterday afternoon, and since then, the eye has become less ragged, with convection surrounding the eye, particularly within the eyewall, becoming deeper despite traveling over less and less marginally warm waters.
NHC has been extraordinarily conservative in the handling of Chris, keeping him as a 60MPH TS, despite having to repeatedly toss in qualifying comments that he may be stronger than that.
The reality is, despite the lower SSTs, in the words of our new director Rick Knabb, "if it looks like a hurricane... it probably is."
A simple comparison of Chris to other high latitude tropical cyclones, to be used as a QC set for standardization, shows Chris as more organized, and with deeper convection, than 2011's Sean at 65MPH, 2005's Vince at 75MPH, and arguably besting 2005's Espilon at 85MPH.
I rarely strongly disagree with 's calls, but this would be one of the times, and this view is nearly unanimous among observers I have spoken with. Chris, if not upgraded to hurricane status by the 11AM today, will almost certainly have to be upgraded so post-season.
An upgrade by 11AM at this time would come as better late than never. The most recent estimate out of SAB is T4.0, while CIMSS' ADT should be entirely tossed out, for not using the right pattern, and for initializing the center too far to the left.
Additionally, the most recent Windsat pass from 946 UTC (4:46 EDT), showed 60 knot winds in all quadrants, suggesting that at the very least, Chris was a 70MPH storm at that snapshot in time.
The argument that the lower SSTs and interaction with the marine layer could be preventing effective wind transport flies in the face of how prior high latitude hurricanes have been handled, especially given that there is considerably deeper convection over a much greater percentage of Chris, than was present in the comparison set of tropical cyclones mentioned above.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
