Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 21/18Z, Invest 96L was located at 21.7N 89.0W or along the north Yucatan coast just north of Motul, Mexico. The system is weak and disorganized, however, the has increased the chances for additional development within the next 48 hours to 50%.
Not much movement expected tonight but a slow northward drift seems likely on Friday. Folks along the entire Gulf coast should monitor this developing system over the weekend.
ADDED: System upgraded to TS Debby.
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 23 2012 05:22 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Waiting for a couple more model runs on this. Right now, they are inconclusive as to the future development and direction of movement showing anywhere from northern Mexico to the Big Bend area of Florida.
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Michael
PWS
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Invest 96L.
In the near term, shear and interaction with the Yucatan will probably keep things in check, but once the shear relaxes a bit more, the bit of (flat) land to its south should be of little consequence, and it is conceivable that 96L will tight up into a depression as early as overnight tonight or tomorrow.
Given 96L's broad nature, it probably won't be able to spin up into a strong tropical storm today, but in time, with shear forecast to continue dropping, and with plenty of atmospheric moisture and warm water to draw from (see images below), a land-locked, slower moving 96L has the potential to produce very significant rains, at a minimum, and truly, there is more than a little potential for 96L to become a significant early season Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone.
Total Precipitable Water June 21, 2012
Above: Precipitable Water — The total atmospheric water vapor contained in a vertical column of unit cross-sectional area extending between any two specified levels, commonly expressed in terms of the height to which that water substance would stand if completely condensed and collected in a vessel of the same unit cross section. (Read more...)
Sea Surface Temps June 21, 2012
Above: sea surface temperature—The temperature of the ocean surface. The term sea surface temperature is generally meant to be representative of the upper few meters of the ocean as opposed to the skin temperature, which is the temperature of the upper few centimeters.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Also of interest is OHC. This is a factor in future intensity
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It appears that the apparent low level center that was just north of the Yucatan has now reformed farther south over the Yucatan Peninsula with some pretty good convection on the immediate east side. Tomorrow will tell a better story.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 5AM this early Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Debby was located about 85 miles west of Cedar Key, Florida, moving to the east at 4mph. Sustained winds near the center remain at 45mph with higher gusts. Because of upper level windshear, most of the heavier rain area associated with Debby is located to the east northeast of the storm center, however, new outer rainbands continue to form and move across the Florida peninsula.
Tropical Storm Debby is now likely to make landfall south of Cedar Key mid-morning on Wednesday and move east to east northeast across the peninsula to the vicinity of Daytona Beach (or perhaps even a little further south toward the Cape) by mid-day on Thursday and slowly move east northeast out into the Atlantic Thursday afternoon and Friday. With consideration for the model which has done quite well with this storm, my forecast track for Debby is a little faster and further south than the 5AM National Hurricane Center forecast. I'd anticipate that Debby will weaken to a Tropical Depression as the storm crosses the peninsula on Wednesday and restrengthen to a Tropical Storm as she exits the peninsula into the Atlantic later on Thursday into Friday.
For folks in most of the Florida peninsula, brisk southerly to south southwesterly winds from 20-30mph, with a few higher gusts along the coasts, will continue through late evening on Wednesday and become more southwesterly on Thursday. Sporadic rain squalls are likely through Thursday and should become a little more frequent on Thursday as Debby passes near or just north of east central Florida. A few thunderstorms could quickly spin up isolated tornadoes anytime from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday so stay alert to the potential for these severe weather conditions that are often associated with tropical systems. Areas of heavy rainfall are possible - primarily to the north and northeast of the storm center in northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Thanks Ed. It will be interesting to see if the environment south of 28N can retain moisture today. The system contnues to tap the moisture down to the YP to sustain itself. Debby is the drought buster we have nneeded. It would make sense for Debby to follow the moist air ese across the peninsula. This entire envelope has been around for over a week now and she has probably over stayed her welcome.
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doug
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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As much as the exact center of Debby has seemed an insignificant, trivia point to many as her "weather" was far away from her "center" ...her "center" becomes an extremely important bouncing ball to watch as it actually crosses Florida and moves towards the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
The "weather" may be spreading up into Georgia... but her circulation is what may or may not intensify over the warmer waters and she may emerge stronger in a days time than she is now over cool waters affected by upwelling and just not as warm as the Gulfstream.
Also, her Eastern movement brings her in further south after crossing the narrowest part of Florida.
Compare and contrast had she crawled across the Tallahassee region and worked her way through South Georgia before emerging just north of Jacksonville, Florida.
Will be very interesting to see how this new eastward movement plays into Debby's future down the road.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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GlenJohnson
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 61
Loc: Waldo Florida
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So, Debby hit at 5:20, due east of Gainesville.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 26 2012 11:39 PM)
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