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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 98
Re: Ernesto Approaching Central America [Re: berrywr]
      #93154 - Tue Aug 07 2012 01:35 PM

We now have Hurricane Ernesto. Clearly, the satellite presentation continues to improve by the hour and now recon has confirmed another 5 mb pressure drop and a jump in surface wind to 75 or 80 mph. It also appears to be slightly north of the official forecast track, not that that will make much of a difference in the big picture. It doesn't have a ton of time left, but there is certainly room for some further strengthening before tonight's landfall.

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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
Re: Ernesto Approaching Central America [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #93155 - Tue Aug 07 2012 01:39 PM

The further north for a landfall the more time Ernesto can spend in the BOC/GOM.

The SST is pretty warm so it would not surprise me to see category 2 Ernesto making landfall this evening.

--------------------
________2016 Forecast: 14/7/4________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Ernesto Approaching Central America [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #93156 - Tue Aug 07 2012 01:46 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:16Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 24
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 17:01:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°27'N 85°24'W (18.45N 85.4W)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (305 km) to the E (91°) from Chetumal, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,288m (4,226ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 83kts (From the SE at ~ 95.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 984mb (29.06 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 83kts (~ 95.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:57:00Z


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3550
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Ernesto Approaching Central America [Re: danielw]
      #93161 - Tue Aug 07 2012 07:15 PM

Added webcam recording from Cozumel

Webcam recording, Cozumel El Cid resorts. (Alternate)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Ernesto Approaching Southern Yucatan [Re: MikeC]
      #93162 - Tue Aug 07 2012 07:58 PM

Both satellite imagery and the Belize radar loop show the eye making a jog/wobble to the west southwest toward Chetumal, Mexico. Forward speed has increased a little and it looks like landfall is going to be this evening around 11PM CDT.
ED


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Mozart
Weather Watcher


Reged: Fri
Posts: 37
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
Re: Ernesto Approaching Southern Yucatan [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93166 - Wed Aug 08 2012 10:30 AM

If I'm reading the satellite correctly, Ernesto appears to have taken a jog to the southwest this morning. If that's the case, that'll leave him over land for a longer period of time before reappearing over the water, hampering the time he has to get back up to hurricane strength.

--------------------
Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Ernesto Approaching Bay of Campeche` [Re: Mozart]
      #93171 - Wed Aug 08 2012 07:12 PM

Latest METAR from the City of Carmen on the Southern Coast of the Bay of Campeche.

METAR text: MMCE 082250Z 35035G45KT 2SM RA OVC010 25/25 A2945 RMK 8/7// VRB COND
Conditions at: MMCE (CIUDAD DEL CARMEN , MX) observed 2250 UTC 08 August 2012 ( 20 minutes old)
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 25.0°C (77°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.45 inches Hg (997.4 mb)
Winds: from the N (350 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 52 MPH (45 knots; 23.4 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1000 feet AGL
Weather: RA (rain)

Note: This report is the 9th consecutive hour of winds above 34 mph. And the 4th consecutive hour of winds above 40 mph.~danielw


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Area near the Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #93172 - Wed Aug 08 2012 08:01 PM

An area of disturbed weather moving into the SE Bahamas. Appears to be associated with a tropical wave.


Zoomed on area:


Images Courtesy of CIMSS

Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 09 2012 04:13 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1021
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Area near the Bahamas [Re: danielw]
      #93179 - Thu Aug 09 2012 05:03 PM

TD #7 has been declared in the mid-Atlantic. Long range track by NHC keeps westward movement, bringing it south of Cuba.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Atlantic [Re: Random Chaos]
      #93183 - Thu Aug 09 2012 05:57 PM

Yesterday's MJO index is in nearly the same exact position as it was prior to the June Atlantic tropical outbreak.
The current systems could have a better chance at further developing into Tropical Storms or Hurricanes. Based on prior experience with the MJO.
Hurricane Chris began on June 19th. Just 5 days after the MJO moved into the Western Hemisphere.
Tropical Storm Debby began on June 23rd. Just after the MJO peaked in Sector 8 and crossed into Sector 1.
http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html
Coincidence. Possibly. Stranger things have happened.

Keep an eye or two on the Atlantic. Including the system near the Bahamas and the remnants of Florence to the NE of Puerto Rico.
Don't let your guard down just because it's the weekend


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 384
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Tropical Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #93186 - Thu Aug 09 2012 10:13 PM

There will be quite a few systems but none of them are likely to reach the United States with the evolving upper air pattern over the United States and in the Atlantic Ocean; any system that does develop has to be suppressed south to have a shot; the only viable system is TD7 which will be south enough to have a shot at being pulled poleward once it reaches the Western Caribbean. The well-advertised African wave and it's progress will be discussed in the Forecast Lounge; it is a solid two weeks away at this time from affecting the US. We will talk future track over in the Forecast Lounge and on our Facebook page; tracks beyond day 5 have large errors.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

Edited by berrywr (Fri Aug 10 2012 12:10 AM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2562
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Admin Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #93187 - Thu Aug 09 2012 10:44 PM

Note that the Current Storm tracking map for TD7 (on the left) does not yet reflect the current track for TD7 which will be moving westward for quite a few days.
ED

ADDED: Correct map is now posted.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 09 2012 10:54 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3487
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Atlantic [Re: danielw]
      #93202 - Sun Aug 12 2012 09:34 AM

Well so much for the MJO and it's forecasting ability. Tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean is the only game in town right now.

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