ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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In the last frame it looks like he is breaking up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-rb.html
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I dont think its breaking up, but the 5 fixes by recon (last one around 1:30 est) show that the center is moving in a more NW direction or it keeps reforming north. I saw at 2p stated that the direction was WNW not W. The latest center fix is also well north of the next forcast point they had
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I was watching the center fixes also. Yes, they are in a row at nearly a due NW or 315 degree heading.
NHC uses 6 hour averages on their headings so it would take a while to average out the NW run. ( Remember 2004. Average said was heading NNW after he made the right hand turn toward landfall.)
Computers don't have Eyes and that 3rd dimension is what gives us an edge over a computer.
I'm not sure what the NW run will do to the models as they aren't out yet. But it Should have some effect on them. I don't think it will be a large... Central GOM effect. But something along the lines of missing Belize and striking the Cozumel to Cancun area. Which in turn could line up portions of the South Texas Coast for a second landfall.
That's my two cents. And I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night, or book Earl Lee. 
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to a weak upper low/open wave off the coast of North Florida that is barely noted on water vapor imagery to the NE and N to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US with an upper low over Canada progged to move Southeast to the Great Lakes area and deepen and cutoff there; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper (200 mb) ridge currently to the SW of is expected to be out ahead of backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest. Currently there is an upper ridge directly over the system but strong 30 knot wind shear from the north less than 200 miles to the northeast of the center and 30 knots from the south near the NW shore of the Yucatan peninsula; both indicative of upper lows over the SW GOM and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Tue Aug 07 2012 02:27 AM)
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Quote:
There is an upper low in the SW GOM and though inverted it does extend to the developing long wave trough along the Eastern US which an upper low over the Great Lakes is progged to deepen and cutoff; I expect the track to be adjusted a hair to the right...north but I don't see anything in the models to suggest that will gain enough latitude to be turned north; the upper low over the SW GOM is progged to move west to inland Mexico in 48 hours and an upper ridge currently to the SW of is expected to be out ahead of backing the storm back to the west and west-southwest.
What do you think the odds are it makes it far enough north to have a direct impact on Playa Del Carmen?
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Expect tropical storm conditions with the possibility of hurricane force gusts...but more wind than rain to start and heavy rainfall potential once the center is south and especially inland. If you live there take your precautions serious. I don't like the current water vapor satellite imagery though the system has a large surface circulation envelope; I haven't checked the new recon data but this system looks nothing like it did earlier when it went through a pretty quick intensification phase.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
Edited by berrywr (Tue Aug 07 2012 02:40 AM)
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