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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Active Atlantic: Tropical Depression Nine, Invests 95L & 96L Organizing.
      #93206 - Wed Aug 15 2012 07:37 PM

Update 4:30 AM EDT 21 August 2012



Invest 94L has acquired sufficient convective organization to be classified as a tropical depression, and advisories will begin shortly on Tropical Depression Nine.

TD9 has a solid structure with which to build on, and is now efficiently fending off dry air entrainment. Consequently, further development is likely, and Nine will probably become Isaac later this morning, or afternoon.

Invests 95L & 96L continue slowly organizing. With 95L just south of Texas, and at least a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, this is the most concerning of the two. 96L is following on the heels of Nine, but is several days away from becoming any potential threat to land masses.

Discussion on (now) TD 9 has been lively in the Forecast Lounge .
Ciel

12:30 PM EDT 20 August 2012
Gordon passed through the Azores early this morning still a hurricane. Few weather stations exist far out in the eastern Atlantic, but the airport on Santa Maria island recorded a 1-min. averaged ("sustained") wind of about 65-70 MPH, with a peak gust of 80.

Gordon continues winding down today, and should be pretty well sheared out within the next 48 hours.

South of Texas, Invest 95L has become a little more convectively active today, and provided it remains offshore, further development is possible. This trough has about a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours, per NHC.

Invest 94L has weakened out in the Central Atlantic, which increases the odds of it traveling more west, than north. As such, interests in the eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying close attention to it.

Now in the statistical heart of the season, and it has already been a very active year so far, waves are rolling off western Africa one after another, as we are now in the "Cape Verde Season." Invest 96L is the next wave up, located south of the Cape Verde islands, and movement is to the west at around 15-20 MPH.
Ciel


5:00 PM EDT 19 August 2012
Hurricane Gordon is en route to pass through the eastern Azores Monday in the far eastern Atlantic before becoming extratropical by Tuesday afternoon, and likely shearing out soon thereafter, before whatever is left of it nears Portugal and Spain.

Gordon will likely be a minimal hurricane or very strong tropical storm as it crosses the Azores early Monday, and interests in and near the islands should take necessary precautions for very strong winds and high waves.

Some of the remains of former Helene have coupled with a developing surface trough over far eastern Mexico, and have pulled offshore today, now being tracked as Invest 95L. 95L is showing a few signs of gradual organization, and it has a chance, about 20% per NHC, of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours.

Invest 94L in the central Atlantic is becoming much better organized, and it appears that a tropical cyclone is very close to forming. NHC now gives 94L a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, and this could be conservative. Movement is to the west or west-northwest at around 20-25 MPH.

Discussions on the future of 94L are heating up over in the Invest 94L Forecast Lounge.
Ciel

8:00 PM EDT 18 August 2012
Hurricane Gordon is nearing Cat 3 status as of the 8 PM Advisory. Winds now estimated at 110 mph. Gordon is located 525 miles WSW of the Azores.

5:15 PM EDT 18 August 2012
Helene has moved inland over eastern Mexico, and has weakened considerably, now barely a Tropical Depression. The remnants of Helene will be watched over the next few for the potential of getting back out over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Gordon is now a powerful Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds estimated at 105 MPH. Gordon will probably maintain as a hurricane throughout its passage near or over the Azores in about 30-40 hours, and then is expected to begin decoupling and transition into a weaker extratropical cyclone before it reaches western Europe.

Invest 94L is the next potential named system we are following, now located near 13.5N 32W, and is moving slightly north of due west at around 20 MPH. Odds are favoring 94L becoming a tropical depression by Monday night.
Ciel

5:24 PM EDT 17 August 2012
TD 7 has regenerated into Tropical Storm Helene. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Barra de Nautla to La Cruz,MX

4 PM EDT 17 August 2012
It appears that the remains of Tropical Depression 7 may have regenerated back into a tropical cyclone; watches and warnings may be initiated shortly.

Seven is now approaching the Mexican coastline, presently centered near 20.5N 96W, and is moving generally west-northwestward. Recon is en route to the center of the incipient cyclone, and NHC should have good, useable data within the hour.
Ciel

3 AM EDT 17 August 2012
Closest to the states, former TD-7 is back over water, now in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and is slowly starting to reorganize. It is possible that 7, in whatever state it finds itself back in, will actually be around for several days along or just offshore of eastern Mexico and/or extreme south Texas. As such, even if it does not become a tropical cyclone again, it will bring the potential for flooding rains should it linger.

Tropical Storm Gordon is now very nearly a hurricane, and is expected to cross the Azores as a strong tropical storm late Sunday or early Monday.

Invest 94L is now being tracked in the far eastern Atlantic. This very broad, elongated wave has an abundance of moisture to work with, and we will have lots of time to keep an eye on it.
Ciel

7 AM EDT 16 August 2012
Tropical Depression 8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon this morning, and continues to move away from most land areas, only the Azores may have to worry about it as an extra tropical system early next week.

Outside of Gordon, it is still very quiet for mid August.

Original Update

Tropical Depression Eight has formed in the Central Atalntic, and is moving north and out to sea already. It is expected to become a Tropical Storm, and may near the Azores later as it heads back eastward.

Elsewhere it is very quiet for mid August.

Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

TD9 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 09


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 09 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 09 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 09

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 09
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 09 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


96L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
Re: Busy Season: Gordon Past Azores. 94L & 96L in Atlantic, 95L South of Texas. [Re: MikeC]
      #93247 - Mon Aug 20 2012 03:08 PM

The Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is en route to investigate 95L. From the latest map, they're about 200 miles E of the apparent LLC. I'm interested to see what they find. http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Busy Season: Gordon Past Azores. 94L & 96L in Atlantic, 95L South of Texas. [Re: MikeC]
      #93250 - Mon Aug 20 2012 05:37 PM

94L: if the system remains shallow, devoid of deeper core convection it will likely move right along with the trade wind vectors and end up similarly to the ECMWF global forecast model. If the system overcomes what appears to be an ingest of Saharan dust and develops sustained convection like the CMC model, than both beta drift (Coriolis) and deeper layer steering would work together to bring it farther N. As is, 94L appears to have established some closed cyclonic motion in the hi res visibility loops, with perhaps a tiny more concentrated vortex closer to the perceived axis of rotation (15.5N/47.9W).

Behind 94L is an upgraded 30% region of convection and apparent developing low pressure that actually already takes on the appearance of some cyclonic banding. This feature trundles over very warm waters, has favorable deep layer shear, and doesn't appear to have SAL contamination - or at least less. It would not be shocking if this region develops sooner.

Closer to home, remnant vorticity that sheared off of the dying Helene is located SE of Brownsville TX. This region exhibits some tendency for showers to organize into cyclonic motion over the far western Gulf. Conditions aloft are suitable for further development provided it stays over the warm Gulf waters.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Mon Aug 20 2012 07:13 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Busy Season: Gordon Past Azores. 94L & 96L in Atlantic, 95L South of Texas. [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #93251 - Mon Aug 20 2012 05:56 PM

Recon found nothing to write home about....some wind, not strong winds, some rain.... they did stick with their thoughts on 94 being a possible tropical depression in the near future.

They put out a special statement to give out info and report they found nothing in the "elongated area of low pressure" in the Gulf.

All eyes back on Invest 94...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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