cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Above: Tropical Storm Gordon at 0445UTC Aug. 17, 2012
Tropical Storm Gordon has a good chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 48 hours, and presently the official forecast from calls for Gordon to reach Category 1 by 11AM this morning (Aug. 17th).
At present, Gordon appears to be struggling to intensify further, having some dry air pushing in from its west and southwest with shear increasing from those directions as well. It is possible that Gordon drops from 70MPH to 65MPH by the 5AM advisory, but such weakening would likely be only temporary, as the cyclone will probably still become a hurricane.
North Atlantic tropical cyclones usually don't capture much interest, but there a few are exceptions. Gordon could be one of these, as it is forecast to come very close to, and possibly cross the the Azores islands, as a strong tropical storm within the next 72 hours or so.
Interestingly, our last Hurricane Gordon (2006) also crossed the Azores, on September 20th of that year, between the islands of Santa Maria and São Miguel. Hurricane force gusts were recorded on land.
2006's Gordon went on to become a vigorous Post-Tropical Cyclone (with quite a bit of tropical characteristics remaining), producing widespread strong tropical storm force winds, possibly with pockets of sustained hurricane force winds, along southwestern Europe and the United Kingdom. A peak gust of 114MPH was recorded at Punta Candieira in Galicia on Spain's northwest coast.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Dry air entrainment from the southwest weakened Gordon during the night, however, a slow rebound with a slight gain in intensity is still possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. After that, cooler SSTs and westerly windshear will begin to weaken the cyclone as it approaches the Azores.
ED
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Gordon has become the third hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Gordon's structure improved during the late overnight of the 17th, and by very early morning today the determined that Gordon had become a hurricane. Since then, the cyclone has continued to strengthen, with a noticeable clearing within the eye, and ever deeper convection wrapping partially to mostly the way around it.
As of the 5PM AST Aug. 18 Advisory, Gordon is estimated to have just about reached its maximum intensity at 90 knots (105 MPH). There is still some opportunity for Gordon to strengthen more, but by Monday it will be traveling over waters consistently cooler than 27c while likely also undergoing increasing shear.
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