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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: New Watches and Warnings as Isaac Heads toward the Keys [Re: MikeC]
      #93688 - Sun Aug 26 2012 11:08 AM

Isaac is gradually trying to rebuild its core(not that it ever had much of one) but it will probably take another day to get organized. There is plenty of dry air that needs to get mixed out and there is still a bit of southerly flow aloft affecting the system.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: New Watches and Warnings as Isaac Heads toward the Keys [Re: Hawkeyewx]
      #93690 - Sun Aug 26 2012 12:01 PM

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 15:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 21
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 15:27:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°38'N 80°57'W (23.6333N 80.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 83 miles (133 km) to the SE (141°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,393m (4,570ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 58° at 48kts (From the ENE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the NNW (341°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,401m (4,596ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the north quadrant at 15:04:00Z


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GulfBreezeFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: MikeC]
      #93691 - Sun Aug 26 2012 12:09 PM

Compared to normal, we are getting some pretty nice wave action here on Pensacola Beach. Hoping ISAAC is no relative of Ivan.

Nice HD cam here:

http://www.microseven.com/tv/livevideo-241.html


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida 28.64N 81.20W
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: MikeC]
      #93697 - Sun Aug 26 2012 01:59 PM

Isaac still has to overcome a large amount of dry air that has become integrated into its circulation. One can see the center is of banded nature with an "S" shape, not a CDO, indicative of dry air entrainment. The only way this can be overcome is for the storm to perform lots of convective mixing to re-saturate the air inside it. It will accomplish that eventually, but it is large, and it will take a little while yet.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: MikeC]
      #93698 - Sun Aug 26 2012 02:15 PM



The era of the multiple vortices is over. Isaac has a clear coherent singular circulation center situated SE of Key West Florida, and is easily identified by radar.

Satellite presentation is improving a great deal during these mid day hours.

Confidence is high now that Isaac will miss the mainland of Florida. The Keys, however, will continue to have a rough afternoon and evening. Isaac is intensifying as it passes close to, or over Key West during the next 2 hours. Up over the mainland, occasional squally wind gust and the potential for isolated tornadoes will continue through the evening hours.

Most track guidance from overnight and this morning has come into better agreement that Isaac will makes it way toward the western Florida Panhandle, over to the Mississippi Delta. I still don't see any reason to believe that will not take place. Hurricane watches were extended over to include the Delta region. Everyone from there, including New Orleans, and points eastward through the Panhandle should be prepared. Isaac will likely have a rather large circulation when it nears the northern Gulf so the words, don't fixate on the eye need to really resonate.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 573
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: MikeC]
      #93702 - Sun Aug 26 2012 03:16 PM

Very recent base reflectivity from Key West hints at eye production might be underway. Velocity channels concurrently suggested that the center of rotation may have encountered recent burst of subsidence (downward motion), as an inner circular area abated velocities at those same times.

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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sun
Posts: 99
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #93704 - Sun Aug 26 2012 03:55 PM

Well, Isaac has successfully built up its nw quadrant. The other three quadrants still need a lot of work. Any convection that tries to pop up south of the center continues to be poofed by the dry air. Perhaps Isaac can gradually swing that solid band in the nw quadrant around the south and east sides by tomorrow morning. Building a solid core from nothing while fighting dry air is a slow process.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Hurricane Watches now up for Most of Louisiana, Isaac Approaching Keys [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #93706 - Sun Aug 26 2012 03:56 PM

Latest Wind and Surge Forecast Graphics from New Orleans NWS Office.






Remember: Run from the Water and Hide from the Wind. In this case Run And Hide~danielw


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