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Archives >> 2012 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: WesnWylie]
      #93778 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:36 AM

Hurricane Hunters just found an 80MPH wind with the SMFR, A sign Isaac may becoming a hurricane now.

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BayCoGator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #93784 - Mon Aug 27 2012 12:33 PM

Quote:

Hurricane Hunters just found an 80MPH wind with the SMFR, A sign Isaac may becoming a hurricane now.



And appears to be moving more W than N, too...


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WeatherNut
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #93785 - Mon Aug 27 2012 01:37 PM

At 12:38est buoy 42003 recorded a pressure of 986.3mb (and falling rapidly) and winds of 37kts gust 47kts out of the south...so I think we are going to see lower pressures this time with recon

(as a side note...does anyone know why the aircraft are not reporting surface pressures?)

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Mon Aug 27 2012 01:40 PM)


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Bloodstar
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #93789 - Mon Aug 27 2012 02:11 PM

Quote:

Hurricane Hunters just found an 80MPH wind with the SMFR, A sign Isaac may becoming a hurricane now.




The good news is the center relocation didn't advance the organization of the storm faster, So while Isaac may be near or at Hurricane status now, the 12 hour delay could be really important in keeping Isaac from becoming an even more dangerous storm.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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hogrunr
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: Bloodstar]
      #93790 - Mon Aug 27 2012 02:18 PM

Also to note about Isaac's track and center relocations. According to one of NOAA's twitter pages, the center is rotating trochoidal around the storm.

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid

So this makes a visible center location/system movement hard to determine.


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BayCoGator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: hogrunr]
      #93791 - Mon Aug 27 2012 02:54 PM

Quote:

Also to note about Isaac's track and center relocations. According to one of NOAA's twitter pages, the center is rotating trochoidal around the storm.

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid

So this makes a visible center location/system movement hard to determine.



Very interesting phenomenon considering the storms healthy satellite appearance. You'd think a storm with such an unsettled organizational foundation wouldn't present so well.


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Bloodstar
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: BayCoGator]
      #93792 - Mon Aug 27 2012 02:59 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Also to note about Isaac's track and center relocations. According to one of NOAA's twitter pages, the center is rotating trochoidal around the storm.

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid

So this makes a visible center location/system movement hard to determine.



Very interesting phenomenon considering the storms healthy satellite appearance. You'd think a storm with such an unsettled organizational foundation wouldn't present so well.




IIRC - Trochoid movement is common with storm, it leads to the classic wobble along the mean motion. so I don't think trochoidal movement indicates an unhealthy storm specifically.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.


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hogrunr
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: BayCoGator]
      #93793 - Mon Aug 27 2012 03:00 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Also to note about Isaac's track and center relocations. According to one of NOAA's twitter pages, the center is rotating trochoidal around the storm.

https://twitter.com/HRD_AOML_NOAA

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trochoid

So this makes a visible center location/system movement hard to determine.



Very interesting phenomenon considering the storms healthy satellite appearance. You'd think a storm with such an unsettled organizational foundation wouldn't present so well.




That being said...it does seem like there is definitely a more western component to the movement in the last couple of satellite frames. Looking at the satellite overlayed with the forecast points seems to point towards this movement as well.

Edited by hogrunr (Mon Aug 27 2012 03:04 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: hogrunr]
      #93795 - Mon Aug 27 2012 03:14 PM

Trochoid or Fujiwhara. The models predicted this rotation about a moving center point several days ago.
However, the rotation is forecast to consolidate before landfall.

Two main points of concern at this time are the storm surge and the prolonged hours of tropical storm force winds over the area. Issac is forecast to slow down to a crawl at landfall and this could mean a 24 to 36 hour period of winds higher than 45 mph. Copius amounts of rainfall can be produced in a slow moving tropical cyclone.

I saw a local NWS model forecast here of up to 8 inches of rainfall from Issac with wind gusts to 80 mph. Those amounts have decreased for some reason but they are still prolonged.
I'm 60 miles inland.

Make sure that you are finished with or nearly finished with storm preps before Sunset tonight or about 8 PM.

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 27 2012 03:19 PM)


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mikethewreck
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Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: danielw]
      #93814 - Mon Aug 27 2012 09:12 PM

Is the band that was on the east coast of Florida today with significant energy (several tornadoes in the Treasure Coast area including one that audibly went by our house at 11 AM) which is now pulling off to the north by east another rotational center in this vortically challenged storm?

My wife went through Andrew in Leisure City (Ground Zero for that Cat 5 monster) and was scared today by the intense storm band and tornado. She was also thankful her paranoid husband put up all the shutters and storm panels Saturday morning.

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: mikethewreck]
      #93826 - Mon Aug 27 2012 11:21 PM

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 02:54Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 28
Observation Number: 46
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:11:18Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°04'N 86°57'W (27.0667N 86.95W)
B. Center Fix Location: 229 miles (368 km) to the SSW (200°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,979m (9,774ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 254° at 49kts (From the WSW at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the S (173°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,054m (10,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Fix Determined By / Fix Level (Undecoded): 1 / 1 nm
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:34:49Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 2:24:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SE (127°) from the flight level center


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 03:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 2:31:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°07'N 87°00'W (27.1167N 87.W)
B. Center Fix Location: 227 miles (365 km) to the SSW (201°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,251m (4,104ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 62 nautical miles (71 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 43° at 65kts (From the NE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,466m (4,810ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:07:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) in the southeast quadrant at 2:54:00Z



Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 27 2012 11:29 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: danielw]
      #93830 - Tue Aug 28 2012 06:24 AM

Does anyone else see a fairly defined eye form on various Floater loops of 0945 UTC?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #93832 - Tue Aug 28 2012 07:59 AM

I see two consecutive Vortex messages with max. flight level winds that should equal 75 mph at the surface.
The pressure/ wind relationship should equal a maximum wind speed of 98 mph IF Issac were a fully formed storm.
That's my two cents.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 09:25Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 22
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 8:43:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°26'N 87°58'W (27.4333N 87.9667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 213 miles (342 km) to the SSW (192°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,239m (4,065ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 78 nautical miles (90 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 143° at 71kts (From the SE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 83 nautical miles (96 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 977mb (28.85 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) in the east quadrant at 7:52:00Z

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 11:37Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 30
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 11:03:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°47'N 88°08'W (27.7833N 88.1333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 190 miles (306 km) to the SSE (163°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level (Undecoded): NA NA
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the S (174°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 257° at 69kts (From the WSW at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 74 nautical miles (85 statute miles) to the S (174°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 981mb (28.97 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,425m (7,956ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,437m (7,995ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Poorly Defined
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the east quadrant at 9:14:32Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 63kts (~ 72.5mph) in the north quadrant at 11:24:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SEC MAX FL WIND 66 KT BRNG:175 deg RNG:103 nm
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8K FT


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JoshuaK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 153
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
Re: Isaac Still Trying to get Organized [Re: danielw]
      #93834 - Tue Aug 28 2012 08:31 AM

Look at this here;

000
URNT12 KNHC 281222
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 28/11:38:20Z
B. 27 deg 51 min N
088 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1224 m
D. 45 kt
E. 303 deg 69 nm
F. 042 deg 58 kt
G. 304 deg 78 nm
H. 977 mb
I. 17 C / 1527 m
J. 21 C / 1527 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. OPEN SSW - NNE
M. C50
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 3109A ISAAC OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 86 KT SE QUAD 11:57:30Z

Pressure remains low while 86 knot winds, which would normally translate to 85 mph surface winds, but in this storm's case they seem to be going at about a 15mph reduction rate instead of a normal 10, so perhaps 80mph surface winds? Still a hurricane, or should be, at the 11AM advisory, since the intermediate has already come out.

EDIT: Oh and yes, looks like an eye is forming on the last few frames on Visible, AVN, and Water Vapor, centered at about 27.7N and 88.5W as of the 11:45 UTC image.

Edited by JoshuaK (Tue Aug 28 2012 08:34 AM)


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