Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Invest 99L is an active tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea. At 20/12Z the system was located at 14.6N 72.8W with pressure at 1008MB and a westerly movement at 10 knots. The system is still poorly organized although some slow development is possible. On the plus side, SSTs are at 29.5C, but the primary factor against the system is increasingly significant westerly windshear over the Greater Antilles.
ED
(Title changed to reflect current storm status.)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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NDBC Station 42058 is reporting a pressure of 1007.3 and falling rapidly. Not much in the way of winds reported though. Wind shear looks to currently be rather low as 99L in under an anticyclone right now. Just saw upped it to 60%. Its amazing that models have been predicting this for over 8-10days...to varying degrees. With hurricane season, it aint over till its over...
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Tropical Storm Sandy continues to intensify and is moving north at 9 knots. At 24/00Z, Sandy was located about 185 miles south of Jamaica and the tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall on Jamaica Wednesday afternoon as a Cat I Hurricane and continue to move north over eastern Cuba early Thursday morning and continue its northern track into the Bahamas Thursday evening. Baroclinic influences from an approaching trough are expected to expand the windfield and reintensify the system as it exits northeast Cuba - however the system may well retain tropical or subtropical characteristics into the weekend.
The following Watches and `Warnings are in effect:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
Because of the anticipation of an expanding windfield, a Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for the southeast Florida peninsula and the Keys later Wednesday morning. suggests that interests in Southern and Central Florida should monitor the progress of Sandy. Heavy rains and life-threatening flash floods can be expected in Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 7 feet is possible in portions of the Bahamas along and near the center, and high waves and the potential for significant beach erosion will exist along the east coast of Florida from Friday through the weekend.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Sandy, located about 65 miles south of Kingston Jamaica, was upgraded to a hurricane at 24/15Z. Sustained winds are now at 70 knots and movement is to the north northeast at 11 knots. Some additional intensification is possible prior to landfall on Jamaica this afternoon. The Tropical Storm Watch for southeast Florida has been extended northward to the Brevard/Volusia County line and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Bahamas.
The following Watches/Warnings are now in effect:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
Weather Conditions at Kingston, Jamaica
Weather Conditions at Montego Bay, Jamaica
Weather Conditions at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba
Weather Conditions at Havana, Cuba
Weather Conditions at Georgetown, Exuma, Bahamas
Weather Conditions at Freeport, Bahamas
Weather Conditions at Nassau, Bahamas
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 26/14Z Hurricane Sandy (probably no longer a hurricane) was located on the east shore of Greater Abaco Island in the northwest Bahamas drifting slowly northwest - perhaps even a little north northwest. Windshear has exposed the low level circulation of the system. The upper level outflow that had been over the hurricane has been displaced to the east northeast while the most significant convection is to the northwest of the center and the area of convection is expanding westward as the system takes on more of a subtropical appearance.
Global models still reintensify the system and bring it into the northeast in the late Monday to early Tuesday timeframe - probably as a hybrid storm.
ED
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