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Archives >> 2012 Forecast Lounge

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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94055 - Tue Oct 23 2012 07:01 PM

Sandy looks to be a menace or a downright historic storm possibly for the eastern U.S. Its alarming to me that the European which continue to advertise a significant storm recurving NW into the Northeast next week. After really scratching my head and seeing a track like that is quite rare if at all, but its does have support from the NOGAPS,GEM, and GFS ensemble members. Its interaction with the Omega block consisting of a blocking high in the north Atlantic, and a large ocean storm over the central north Atlantic, and a digging negatively tilted upper trough over the Ohio valley will be critical in determining where Sandy goes. But Iam starting to think Sandy may miss her chance out to the northeast like GFS says with it undercutting the block. Time will tell but I would watch this very very closely!

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94057 - Tue Oct 23 2012 11:06 PM

The coastal beach erosion/flooding setup for the east coast (of Florida and possibly north) is going to be much worse than usual if this system rapidly converts to subtropical/post tropical. It's not out of the realm of possibility to see 20-25 ft seas Friday off east central Florida, which will translate into a ton of beach erosion in areas not usually accustomed to it. Probably higher than it's been in decades by Friday (It's slowly already gaining now)

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94058 - Tue Oct 23 2012 11:09 PM

The seas here are already very rough.About 60% of beach is covered now.Pretty windy all day.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94059 - Tue Oct 23 2012 11:23 PM

Posting the marine discussion from Miami tonight, bolding the important parts.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
...

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
SHEARLINE MENTIONED ABOVE COMBINING WITH HIGH PRES TO THE NNW TO
PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT NE OF
THE N HALF OF BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHILE
FRESHENING EASTERLIES TO THE S WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
SANDY DEEPENS NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SANDY OF MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST.
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N AND NW OF SANDY AS IT EXITS CARIBBEAN
NEXT 48 HOURS AND COMBINE WITH MONSOONAL ORIGINS TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE WIND FIELD SHIFTING NNE WITH SANDY. CURRENT NELY FETCH N
OF SHEAR LINE ALREADY YIELDING 6-8 FT SEAS NE OF BAHAMAS AND 5-6
FT ALONG THE FLORIDA COASTS. VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO IS
DEVELOPING WITH SANDY AS SUFFICIENTLY SLOW MOVEMENT...PRE
EXISTING HIGH SEAS...VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND ONSHORE FLOW
DURING HIGH LUNAR TIDES COULD SPELL EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING AND
EROSION FOR FLORIDA AND CERTAINLY BAHAMAS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
WW3 FORECASTING 12 FT SEAS TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST BY 18Z
THU WITH SEAS BUILDING 20-35 FT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS BY 18Z
FRI. THIS COULD EVOLVE INTO A HISTORICAL EVENT AND FO'S ARE
ENCOURAGED TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT VERY HARD. NELY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLORIDA AND SE COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH LONGER PERIOD SWELL INDUCING SUSTAINED RUNUP.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #94063 - Wed Oct 24 2012 11:05 AM

Well its now been upgraded to a Hurricane. I think the out to sea option is becoming very unlikely. The GFS has been trending west and the Euro has remained consistent that an epic storm will strike in the Long Island area. The storm surge alone would be devastating. The GFS now has Sandy going out but develops another storm which rides up the coast. Bottom line for those in NYC and all areas around it should monitor this situation closely...VERY closely as nobody has seen anything close to this (if it verifies) in our lifetimes

Pressure has dropped 8mb in less than an hour as messured by recon

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Oct 24 2012 11:08 AM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #94067 - Wed Oct 24 2012 02:56 PM

Another day has gone by since my last post with myself leaning very closely to the European solution with a chance of this being an event to remember. Its a hard to think that this could be a historic or dare I say storm of the century type but it is quite possible. I really think this is also going to be rough squally storm for FL east coast with winds of strong TS force possibly hurricane gusts especially from near the Cape and points south as the storms wind field expands. Beach erosion will likely be severe not just for FL but large area of the eastern seaboard. Time will tell but this storm has the makings to being one that unfortunately maybe one we never forget.

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Troy C
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 15
Loc: Satellite beach, FL 28.20N 80.60W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94069 - Wed Oct 24 2012 05:10 PM

This reminds me of the Halloween Storm of 1991. Some refer to that as the Storm of the Century.
Very possible wave event similar to that..

(Post moved from the Storm Forum to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 24 2012 10:40 PM)


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94071 - Wed Oct 24 2012 05:26 PM

This wont be just a FL storm...they will get wind and some rain and thunderstorms. Its looking more and more like this is a bigger threat between the Delmarva and Cape Cod with historic snowfalls in WV for this time of year

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94072 - Wed Oct 24 2012 05:30 PM

What the euro is suggesting is a similar situation, however, the storm of 1991 (Grace was the tropical part) never came on shore. It went up the coast and out. If this come onshore from the SE it would bring big storm surges at astronomical high tide (full moon). It would push surge up the river valleys as well.

(Post moved from the Storm Forum to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 24 2012 10:42 PM)


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jkapust
Registered User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 5
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94073 - Wed Oct 24 2012 06:00 PM

Well it is finally up, a hazardous weather outlook including sandy, in the Boston area. I was wondering how long it would take for those to be posted, all the while the NHC track still does not include the west turn as expected by many of the spaghetti models and GFS ensemble members.

WHILE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK...THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK OF A POST-TROPICAL SANDY MAKING EITHER A CLOSE
PASS /STRONG WINDS...HIGH SEAS...POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES/...OR A DIRECT HIT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
/HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES...HIGH SEAS AND STORM SURGE RESULTING IN BEACH EROSION
AND COASTAL FLOODING...AND FINALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN
INTERIOR FLOODING/.

Fortunately the latest GFS ensemble members are beginning to look less spread from Maine to the Maryland and more south of Boston, where I reside. Storms in new england are exciting. Looking forward to tracking this one.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Oct 24 2012 10:28 PM)


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Joeyfl
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 112
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #94075 - Wed Oct 24 2012 06:46 PM

Sandy is really looking impressive now with a very nice CDO and eye. She looks to be getting stronger and Jamaica has no effect on her, a good sign that this storms structure is well organized and strong. I dont see any reason why this will not be 90-100mph cane at landfall in Cuba. Recon will also have the obstacle of the no fly over in Cuba but will be able to get some measurements before reaching Cuba later this evening. There is know doubt that Sandy will be a serious problem for the eastern seaboard with tides already above normal with full moon Monday is just going to make for a significant coastal flooding and if the deeper Euro verifies anywhere close to what it is projecting (950-960mb!) it will be a storm I think of historic proportions. So much warm air will be pulled in that the only real snow threat will be in the central Appalachians.

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #94078 - Wed Oct 24 2012 08:24 PM

The models are the most interesting I have seen in quite a while..The arrival and the relative depth of the forecasted strong trough from the west must be difficult to get a handle on...The most reliable have Sandy doing an elongated S up the coast. A couple have it feignt to the NW and get it as close the Florida as Grand Bahama...if t is transitioning at that time the windfield will expand and gales in many parts of Florida could result, along with the terrible erosion of most of the coast line...yeah this could be very interesting.
Glad the west coast of Florida will remain in the fringes...

--------------------
doug


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: doug]
      #94079 - Wed Oct 24 2012 08:27 PM



Structure has improved quite a lot

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 956.8mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 6.4 6.5

Those T and CI #'s are definitely in Cat2-3 territory

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since

Edited by WeatherNut (Wed Oct 24 2012 08:36 PM)


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: WeatherNut]
      #94085 - Thu Oct 25 2012 01:37 AM

Great looking hurricane now,eye is clearly seen.Seas here are really building.Where should I post current condition's?Should have some really good video on Friday from the beach?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1635
Loc: Austin, Tx 30.40N 97.80W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94086 - Thu Oct 25 2012 02:09 AM

Sandy is pretty much a major hurricane heading into its first landfall, and it doesn't look likely that its track over Cuba will interrupt it in a very meaningful way, such that by the time it comes closer to Florida the opportunity for some impressive video will definitely be there. Please share Sandy conditions in your area here.

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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #94087 - Thu Oct 25 2012 03:04 AM

A rare sight,an eye over mountains.Talk about holding together.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 811
Loc: Rhode Island 26.19N 80.10W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94089 - Thu Oct 25 2012 03:47 AM

It is half way across Cuba and the eye is very much intact.Even over the mountains,this storm is very healthy.Amazing,look at this. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis.jpg

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


Edited by ftlaudbob (Thu Oct 25 2012 03:56 AM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3502
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #94091 - Thu Oct 25 2012 07:05 AM

Latest, 00Z FIM model takes Sandy through the Bahamas on the western side of the Islands, crosses Grand Bahama at the bend and begins moving northeastward. Maintains a near constant distance offshore until Sandy moves ashore in Maine.

Different, nearly 180 degree change in forecast since I last posted.

Could spell more than trouble with the cold air moving into New England.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1023
Loc: Maryland 38.98N 76.50W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #94096 - Thu Oct 25 2012 07:32 PM

Ok, what is with these crazy MSLP's near landfall? GFDL is bombing to a 925mb asymmetrical system near the NJ coast. Other models are getting close to that, though I don't have precise numbers.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 3888
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Re: Sandy Forecast Lounge [Re: Random Chaos]
      #94097 - Thu Oct 25 2012 07:41 PM

The 18Z GFS model is crazy, and along the lines of the Euro. There is a possibility once the upper level low presence is gone for Sandy to re-intensify and possibly be nudged a bit west (RAP shows Bimini islands in the Bahamas... It won't actually get that far west, but it may be a bit west of where it is now, perhaps to around 150 miles offshore Florida), so tomorrow and Saturday will probably be nasty along the Florida coastline. The system is heading a bit more north northwest now than it was earlier.

GFS was the only one (until late yesterday) holding out for an out to sea scenario in the Northeast. That deep pressure drop is sure troubling, even if it doesn't verify to that degree, the impact will still be huge in the northeast.


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