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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Double Tropical Development Today Sandy and TD#19
      #94045 - Mon Oct 22 2012 07:18 PM

7:30 AM EDT Update 23 October 2012
Sandy has improved in general appearance overnight, but lacks a strong core at the moment, it is, however, expected to become stronger as it drifts slowly northward toward Jamaica, and has enough time over water to become a hurricane.

Because of this, Hurricane Watches are now up for the island of Jamaica, and a tropical storm warning is now up for the island as well.

It is likely to remain a hurricane when it gets to eastern Cuba as well, likely around 125 miles west of Guantanamo based on the current forecast track.

Once north of Cuba conditions around it become much more hostile, and will force the system to become subtropical or extratropical as it converts to more of a baroclinic storm over the Bahamas, and the wind field spreads. It's generally expected to stay away from the US mainland.


Original Update
It's late October, and two systems have developed today. First Tropical Storm Sandy, Which will likely affect the island of Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, and parts of the Bahamas a tropical storm.

This system is forecast to stay east of the US mainland, but could develop into a very strong hybrid subropical storm or very strong nor'easter as it moves offshore, causing a brisk wind along the coastline and very rough seas, especially starting this weekend. The transformation to extratropical merging in the trof will keep the gradient high,, so again, the conditions of the sea along the east coast may be very rough. Direct landfall impact on the east coast is unlikely at this time, but Sandy should be monitored once a definite motion of the storm occurs.

There is a window for Sandy to strengthen more than forecast over the next few days, so those in the northern Caribbean and Bahamas will want to watch out for that. The rainfall in Jamaica, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba will be of great concern as well. Once north of the Caribbean, extratropical conversion could occur as it potentially merges with a trough, which would be similar--but not necessarily to the same degree--to what occurred with 1991's hurricane Grace and the "Perfect Storm".

Despite the lack of a direct landfall, if it transitions to a hybrid system, the wind field will likely be extremely large.

Tropical Depression 19 formed in the Central Atlantic and should not affect any land.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Sandy Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Sandy


stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Sandy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Sandy (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Sandy

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Sandy
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Sandy -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


TD#19 Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#19


stormplotthumb_19.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#19 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#19 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#19

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#19
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#19 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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